Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Final Rankings for the 2018-19 Season

The 2018-19 season is now in the books (though we are still awaiting word on the fate of some shows), so now is the time to finalize the Scorecard for the year. There are still a few holdover shows that will be airing new episodes for the next few weeks, but those ratings numbers should not affect their standing too much. The CW shows might change by a slot or two, Fear the Walking Dead might rebound a bit from its ratings slump this past weekend, and The Terror really can’t drop much further. So I will count these as the final standings for the year showing how the broadcast network and cable shows performed compared to their network benchmarks (see below for definitions).

You will see that the shows in the top third of the rankings were renewed if they were not in their final season with the exception of FOX’s The Passage. And that show just found itself as odd man out after the Disney buyout of FOX Entertainment. In the middle third, you will find some renewals, some cancellations, and some shows On the Bubble. And in the lower third, you will found more cancellations as well as shows airing out their final seasons and some still On the Bubble. So the Scorecard continues to be a decent tool for gauging the status of the shows that still live and die by the Nielsen ratings. How much longer that remains the case in this ever-changing television environment I can’t say at this point. But I will continue to use the same methodology for now.

With the 2018-19 season wrapping up, the Scorecard will go on break for about a month and a half. I need to start compiling the ratings numbers for the current season to create the benchmarks, and I will want at least of couple of full weeks with ratings data before producing the first Scorecard of the season. Keep an eye out for for that around the middle of October.

In the meantime, be sure to check out our Fall Preview of sci fi and fantasy shows at this link, and also take a look at the Fall schedule at this link.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through September 2nd:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) Game of Thrones (O) HBO 5.17 0.50 933.7% Final Season
2 (2) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.88 0.50 276.1% Renewed
3 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.96 0.30 219.7% Renewed
4 (4) The Flash (O) CW 0.62 0.31 102.6% Renewed
5 (5) The Purge (O) USA 0.41 0.30 36.0% Renewed
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.40 0.31 30.9% Renewed
7 (7) Manifest (O) NBC 1.25 1.04 20.3% Renewed
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.35 0.31 16.0% Renewed
9 (9) Riverdale (O) CW 0.35 0.31 14.5% Renewed
10 (10) Arrow (O) CW 0.34 0.31 11.6% Renewed
11 (11) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.19 0.17 10.9% Renewed
12 (12) Final Space (O) ADSW 0.30 0.28 6.4% Renewal Possible
13 (14) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.30 0.31 -1.8% Renewed
14 (15) Legacies (O) CW 0.30 0.31 -1.8% Renewed
15 (13) Fear the Walking Dead (O) AMC 0.49 0.50 -2.4% Renewed
16 (16) The Passage (O) FOX 0.92 0.94 -2.6% Cancelled
17 (17) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.29 0.31 -3.9% Renewed
18 (18) God Friended Me (O) CBS 0.89 0.93 -5.3% Renewed
19 (19) Roswell New Mexico (O) CW 0.27 0.31 -11.9% Renewed
20 (20) Deadly Class (O) Syfy 0.15 0.17 -12.9% Cancelled
21 (21) Project Blue Book (O) History 0.31 0.36 -13.6% Renewed
22 (22) Outlander (O) Starz 0.17 0.20 -15.0% Renewed
23 (23) Charmed (O) CW 0.26 0.31 -15.2% Renewed
24 (24) The InBetween (O) NBC 0.41 0.50 -18.0% On the Bubble
25 (25) Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) ABC 0.41 0.50 -18.3% Renewed
26 (26) Blood and Treasure (O) CBS 0.40 0.50 -20.0% Renewed
27 (27) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.83 1.04 -20.6% Renewed
28 (28) The Orville (O) FOX 0.74 0.94 -21.8% Renewed
29 (29) Siren (O) Freeform 0.16 0.20 -22.0% Renewed
29 (30) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -22.0% Renewed
31 (31) Z Nation (F) Syfy 0.13 0.17 -23.5% Cancelled
32 (32) Scream MTV 0.23 0.30 -24.4% On the Bubble
33 (33) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.70 0.93 -25.6% Renewed
34 (34) The 100 (O) CW 0.22 0.31 -27.0% Renewed
35 (35) Gotham (O) FOX 0.63 0.94 -33.6% Final Season
36 (36) iZombie (O) CW 0.20 0.31 -34.5% Final Season
37 (37) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.61 0.94 -35.6% Cancelled
38 (38) Nightflyers Syfy 0.11 0.17 -36.9% Cancelled
39 (39) Krypton Syfy 0.11 0.17 -38.2% Cancelled
40 (40) Cloak and Dagger (O) Freeform 0.12 0.20 -40.0% On the Bubble
41 (41) What We Do in the Shadows (O) FX 0.18 0.30 -40.0% Renewed
42 (43) NOS4A2 (O) AMC 0.20 0.35 -42.5% Renewed
43 (42) Pandora CW 0.11 0.20 -42.9% Renewal Possible
44 (44) The Outpost CW 0.11 0.20 -43.8% Renewal Possible
45 (45) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.09 0.17 -45.7% Renewed
46 (46) Happy (O) Syfy 0.09 0.17 -45.9% Cancelled
47 (47) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.04 0.08 -46.9% Cancelled
48 (48) Two Sentence Horror Stories NBC 0.10 0.20 -50.0% Renewal Possible
49 (49) American Gods (O) Starz 0.10 0.20 -50.6% Renewed
50 (50) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.07 0.17 -57.8% Cancelled
51 (51) Legion (O) FX 0.12 0.30 -60.4% Final Season
52 (52) Midnight Texas (O) (F) NBC 0.41 1.04 -60.4% Cancelled
53 (53) Into the Badlands (O) AMC 0.19 0.50 -61.8% Cancelled
54 (54) Killjoys (O) Syfy 0.06 0.17 -63.9% Final Season
55 (55) Mars NGC 0.06 0.16 -65.6% On the Bubble
56 (56) Preacher (O) AMC 0.13 0.50 -74.8% Final Season
57 (58) Counterpart Starz 0.05 0.20 -75.5% Cancelled
58 (57) The Terror (O) AMC 0.11 0.50 -78.7% Renewal Possible
59 (59) The Rook (O) Starz 0.04 0.20 -79.4% On the Bubble

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Author: johnnyjay

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