Cancellation Watch: Game of Thrones Renewed for Seventh Season, 12 Monkeys Returns Low, Plus the Scorecards

By | April 22, 2016

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

game-of-thrones-s6Renewal Announcement: HBO announced yesterday that Game of Thrones has been renewed for a seventh season (just ahead of its sixth year debut), something that counts as anything but breaking news because the assumption is that this show will continue going until they finally wrap up the story (and I had thought they announced the Season 7 renewal with Season 6, but don’t trust my memory).  Current thinking is that this show will end with its eighth season and recent news suggest that its seventh and eighth years will have less than the ten episodes we have seen from all the seasons up to this point.  But that all depends on how negotiations go with HBO, because they will want to stretch this–their highest rated show ever–as long as possible (just like they did with The Sopranos).  Don’t be surprised if the next two seasons end up containing closer to ten episodes each and if they don’t end up with a ninth season out of the deal as well.  But one thing is for certain: this show will not get cancelled.

Ratings Results of Interest:  On Monday, Syfy’s 12 Monkeys returned for its second season but posted a series low rating of a 0.14 score based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with just 480k total viewers.   That series was never a strong performer in its first season, but it got the second year nod because Syfy has typically been giving its shows two seasons to prove themselves.  12 Monkeys has also developed some decent buzz around the sci fi community, but that has not translated into ratings results.  The premiere was made available for online viewing early, so perhaps those numbers are better, but I have a hard time seeing this show surviving into a third year if its linear numbers remain at these levels.  Also on Monday, Supergirl could only muster a 1.3 rating with 6.1 million total viewers for its season finale.  This one has actually been among the lower rated CBS shows since March averaging only a 1.3 rating (vs. the network average of a 1.5 score) with the exception of the one week its numbers jumped up to a 1.7 with the Flash cross-over.  I still think Supergirl has a decent chance of surviving in the current renewal fever environment, but it won’t count as a strong renewal and it could quickly find itself on the bubble in its second season.  And more Monday results, FOX’s Lucifer managed to improve upon its Gotham lead-in for the first time as it pulled a 1.3 rating vs. the Batman prequel show’s 1.2 score.  I don’t know if that is just a one week blip, but both shows have already been renewed into the 2016-17 season.  On Tuesday, The CW’s Containment could only pull a 0.5 rating with 1.7 million total viewers for its season premiere.  That one has already been pegged as a “limited run” entry and it could just be burning off its episodes like that network did with The Messengers at this same time last year.  And the debut ratings for Containment will do nothing to convince The CW to extend the show’s “limited run”.  On Wednesday, Comedy Central’s “three-night event” Time Traveling Bong debuted with a 0.37 rating and 610k total viewers.  Those are decent numbers for a cable entry this days and if this is a tryout for an ongoing series then the cabler may decide to keep it around if it holds around these levels on Thursday and Friday.

Scorecards: Agents of SHIELD slipped down to the Number 14 slot as its numbers remain low while ABC in general has been doing better of late.  Containment entered the scorecard at the Number 13 slot, which puts it as the lowest of the non-Friday CW shows. The scorecard ranks all of the broadcast net sci fi / fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s 2016 season to date average for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming during the week (based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic).  Shows at or above their network’s average should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Broadcast network scorecard based on the ratings through April 20th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg 2016 Net Avg Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Cancel Alert
1 (1) The X-Files (O) FOX 3.17 1.47 1.70 4.90 Low
2 (2) The Flash (O) CW 1.38 0.62 0.77 2.28 Renewed
3 (3) Arrow (O) CW 0.98 0.62 0.37 1.62 Renewed
4 (4) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.86 0.62 0.25 1.59 Renewed
5 (5) Supergirl CBS 1.68 1.51 0.17 2.55 Low
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.72 0.62 0.11 1.22 Renewed
7 (7) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.41 1.35 0.05 2.43 Renewed
8 (8) Lucifer FOX 1.48 1.47 0.01 2.66 Renewed
9 (9) Gotham FOX 1.44 1.47 -0.03 2.54 Renewed
10 (11) iZombie (O) CW 0.53 0.62 -0.08 0.85 Renewed
11 (12) Angel from Hell (O) CBS 1.42 1.51 -0.09 1.90 Cancelled
12 (13) The 100 (O) CW 0.51 0.62 -0.11 0.92 Renewed
13 (n/a) Containment (O) CW 0.50 0.62 -0.12 n/a Moderate
14 (10) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 1.24 1.35 -0.12 2.26 Renewed
15 (14) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.48 0.62 -0.13 0.98 Renewed
16 (15) Limitless (O) CBS 1.36 1.51 -0.15 2.44 Moderate
17 (16) Heroes Reborn (O) NBC 1.21 1.41 -0.20 2.13 Cancelled
18 (17) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.40 0.62 -0.22 0.77 Renewed
19 (18) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 1.21 1.47 -0.26 1.94 Renewed
20 (19) Scream Queens (O) FOX 1.05 1.47 -0.42 1.89 Renewed
21 (20) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.91 1.41 -0.49 1.70 Renewed
22 (21) Agent Carter (O) ABC 0.80 1.35 -0.55 1.43 Medium
23 (22) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.82 1.47 -0.65 1.47 Medium
24 (23) Galavant (O) ABC 0.64 1.35 -0.71 0.85 Moderate
25 (24) You Me and the Apocalypse NBC 0.69 1.41 -0.72 n/a Cancelled
26 (25) Minority Report (O) FOX 0.71 1.47 -0.76 1.24 High
27 (26) Second Chance (O) (F) FOX 0.65 1.47 -0.83 0.87 High

The cable scorecard is more subjective than the broadcast net version because it is not as easy (or useful) to compile network averages for the cable channels. So this is ranked based on the Cancellation Alert status of these shows from least to most likely to get cancelled.

Cable Scorecard based on ratings through April 20th (metric definitions below):

Series Net Std Avg Prior Yr Avg Var Cancel Alert
The Walking Dead AMC 6.48 7.37 -0.88 Renewed
Fear the Walking Dead AMC 2.81 3.79 -0.99 Renewed
Into the Badlands AMC 1.79 n/a n/a Renewed
American Horror Story FX 1.49 1.91 -0.42 Renewed
The Librarians TNT 0.52 0.92 -0.39 Renewed
Shadowhunters Free 0.41 n/a n/a Renewed
Teen Wolf MTV 0.41 0.49 -0.08 Renewed
The Shannara Chronicles MTV 0.39 n/a n/a Renewed
Colony USA 0.38 n/a n/a Renewed
Doctor Who BBCA 0.37 n/a n/a Renewed
Z Nation (O) Syfy 0.33 0.48 -0.15 Renewed
The Magicians Syfy 0.29 n/a n/a Renewed
The Expanse Syfy 0.21 n/a n/a Renewed
Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 n/a n/a Renewed
Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.15 0.15 0.00 Renewed
Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.10 n/a n/a Renewed
Time Traveling Bong CC 0.37 n/a n/a Low
Outlander STARZ 0.33 0.30 0.03 Low
Slasher Chill 0.02 n/a n/a Low
Damien A&E 0.19 n/a n/a Moderate
Wynonna Earp Syfy 0.18 n/a n/a Moderate
12 Monkeys Syfy 0.14 0.20 -0.06 Moderate
Hunters Syfy 0.13 n/a n/a Moderate
Beowulf Esq 0.04 n/a n/a Elevated
The Leftovers HBO 0.33 0.77 -0.44 Final Season
Lost Girl Syfy 0.11 0.20 -0.09 Final Season
Bitten Syfy 0.09 0.20 -0.11 Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Broadcast Network Scorecard:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s season to date ratings average (see metric definitions below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

2016 Net Avg:  The network’s season to date ratings average for 2016 only based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  Note the the post NFL Championship debut of The X-Files is not included in FOX’s averages because it is non-representative of normal Prime Time performance and it skews the numbers too much

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and the network’s season to date average as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the network mean.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Cable Scorecard:

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Prior Yr Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average from its prior season (if applicable) based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and its Prior Year average as defined above.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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