Cancellation Watch: Agent Carter and Galavant Have Okay Debuts as Ratings in General Look Soft for the Broadcast Nets UPDATED

By | January 7, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Sunday Jan 4th thru Tuesday Jan 6th (analysis and metric definitions below):

Updated with Sunday cable ratings and Sunday broadcast net finals:

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 1/4 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 2.6 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus until March 1st

Galavant ABC Sun 1/4 8 PM
Rating: 2.0 | Tot Viewers (MM): 7.4 | StD Rating: 2.1 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

An okay debut for this series, but is it enough to convince ABC to bring it back for a second round?  (More on this one below)

The Librarians TNT Sun 1/4 8 PM
Rating: 1.0 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.7 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This series held steady from last week for its rating in the demo and seems almost assured a second season at this point.

Resurrection ABC Sun 1/4 9 PM
Rating: 1.0 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.1 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

No improvement for this series with its mid-season return and it did not seen much in the way of DVR gains during Fall.  Still looks like it is on its last legs.

The Walking Dead AMC Sun 1/4 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 7.5 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

On hiatus until February 8th

The Originals CW Mon 1/5 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 0.6 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus until January 19th

Gotham FOX Mon 1/5 8 PM
Rating: 2.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.9 | StD Rating: 2.5 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) A strong return for this show and the buzz for it has continued to be good.  A second season seems almost assured at this point.

Sleepy Hollow FOX Mon 1/5 9 PM
Rating: 1.6 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.5 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) It’s up slightly from where it wrapped up in Fall and continues to look good as far as its relative ratings go.  Its shortened episode order also means that it will get out before the Spring ratings slump hits.

The Flash CW Tue 1/6 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus until January 20th

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 1/6 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

On hiatus until March 3

Agent Carter ABC Tue 1/6 8 PM
Rating: 1.9 | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.9 | StD Rating: 1.9 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) It debuted higher than the current season average for Agents of SHIELD, but I’m thinking that ABC expected better after all the money they put into promoting the show.  It’s getting good buzz among the critics, though. (More on this one below)

Supernatural CW Tue 1/6 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus until January 20th

Forever ABC Tue 1/6 10 PM
Rating: 1.1 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.9 | StD Rating: 1.2 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) This one returned even with where it ended in Fall.  If its DVR returns continue to look good, maybe it still has a chance.  But I believe that it needs to get its average based on the overnights up several ticks.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 1/6 10 PM
Rating: 1.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 10.0 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) This show limped out in December, but that was very much a factor of poor scheduling on the part of CBS.  It had a nice bounce back with its mid-season return and looks to be in good shape for now.

agent-carter-abc-cancelledSeries Premieres:  The first week of mid-season brought two genre premieres for ABC: the fantasy, musical comedy Galavant and the Captain America spin-off Agent Carter.  The former series premiered on Sunday (keeping the Once Upon A Time timeslot warm for the moment) with a 2.1 rating in the 18-49 demographic and 7.9 million total viewers (based on the preliminaries).  Those are decent numbers for a comedy (it’s actually a thirty minute show with two eps running back to back each week), but nothing spectacular.  I expect that the ratings will drop over the next three weeks (it has a limited, four week run) as that is the typical trend, and its fate will be determined by where it ends (and the DVR numbers will likely be a factor as well).  If it doesn’t drop any further than a 1.5 score, then ABC may bring it back again next year for another filler run.  But its debut ratings do not justify consideration for a permanent entry on the schedule unless it holds where it is at or improves (unlikely).  Agent Carter premiered in the Tuesday Agents of SHIELD timeslot and it pulled a 1.9 rating with 6.9 million total viewers (based on the preliminaries) for its two hour bow.  That has it higher than what AoS has been averaging this season in the same hour, but I wouldn’t call those spectacular numbers either, especially for a show that ABC has hyped so heavily.  The network’s spin department was quick to point out that Agent Carter did better in the timeslot than anything else ABC has aired there in over a year, but that’s not really saying too much.  I expect the numbers to trend down over the next six weeks of its limited run to the point that it is at or below the Fall average for AoS.  If it has good delayed viewing results, though, the network may consider a second limited run season next year to keep new episodes on the schedule for a couple of extra months.  We will have to see how both Galavant and Agent Carter track in the coming weeks, but the positive spin for now is that neither of the shows stumbled out of the gate with their premieres.

Adjustment to Targets for Mid-Season:  The Fall season did not do much to turn around the ratings slump that hit the networks starting in the Spring of 2014.  While the numbers did improve some, the gains were slight and the networks are clinging on to ratings laggers that would have been cancelled just a few seasons ago (Forever and Sleepy Hollow are two examples among genre shows).  Heck, as recently as Fall 2013, Agent Carter‘s 1.9 score in the 18-49 demo for its debut would have been considered a disappointment, but I am seeing the entertainment press referring to it as a “solid” or even “strong” premiere.  But such is the life of the old school broadcast networks these days as they have seen their audience continue to erode each year.  And Spring has yet to hit when numbers typically fall off even more.  Taking all that into consideration, I will be adjusting down the target numbers for most of the shows airing on the broadcast networks (I am leaving The CW entries mostly alone for now, though, since they have performed as I expected).   These target numbers are the scores that I believe a show needs to average in the 18-49 demographic based on the overnights in order to get renewed.  They are based on the network, night, timeslot, etc. that a show airs and there is a bit of gut feel thrown in there as well.  They are somewhat subjective, but I believe they have proved useful thus far in gauging a show’s success.  In my Fall wrap up post, you can see that each show’s status as of that point falls pretty much in line with where it is performing compared to target.  But with the Spring drop looming (it usually starts right after Daylight Saving Time), the averages for these shows will slip.  I don’t believe that will necessarily increase their chances of cancellation, though, if the drop that a show experiences is pretty much even with what its network is experiencing overall.  At some point, though, something is going to have to give as the broadcast nets see their audiences turning away to other viewing options.  I’m wondering if one of these networks may end up collapsing (struggling FOX looks like the odds on favorite at the moment) or merging with another.  But that will take a few more years to play out, so focusing on the current season I see that an adjustment to ratings targets (of one or a few ticks) is in order.  I may adjust again once the Spring slump hits, but I’m thinking this may have that covered.

American Horror Story returns from its short hiatus tonight, and I will catch its numbers on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site later this week.  Other than that, no sci fi / fantasy shows have new episodes scheduled for this week.  You can see the full mid-season schedule with premiere/return dates at this link.  And be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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