There was not much in the way of notable shifts in the rankings this past week which makes sense at this point in the season. All of the shows except Legends of Tomorrow have been airing for more than a month and none saw major ratings changes over the past week, so the standings are mostly baked in by now. With the Upfronts starting next week, when the networks will unveil their schedules for the 2021-20 season, the Scorecard should help us gauge where the shows still awaiting word on their fate stand. NBC’s Manifest has seen its ratings drop year over year, but it is not too far off from the network benchmark and it is currently in the Top 15 in the rankings (at Number 12). I still think it has a decent shot at a fourth season, helped by the fact that one of the network execs will be pulling for the show. Debris on the other hand is lower in the rankings at Number 19 and performing notably below the network’s benchmark. Its status is very iffy at this point. The CW’s Pandora is the only genre entry from that network without a commitment for further episodes at this point and it has slipped pretty low in the rankings to Number 26. But that is a relatively inexpensive acquisition for a network that prefers to renew shows rather than cancel them, so it still has a chance. The WarnerMedia Upfront scheduled for next Thursday may include some announcements from HBO, and things continue to look good for The Nevers even though it is low in the rankings at Number 27. That one is seeing strong gains in delayed viewing and likely digital viewing as well, so a second season pickup remains a possibility at this point.
The Scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 0.67 | 0.30 | 124.8% | Final Season |
| 2 (2) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.30 | 0.15 | 103.9% | Final Season |
| 3 (3) | Superman & Lois (O) | CW | 0.28 | 0.15 | 91.6% | Renewal Possible |
| 4 (4) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.25 | 0.15 | 69.9% | Renewed |
| 5 (5) | Resident Alien (O) | Syfy | 0.19 | 0.15 | 28.7% | Renewed |
| 6 (6) | Kung Fu (O) | CW | 0.18 | 0.15 | 23.7% | Renewed |
| 7 (7) | Fear the Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 0.31 | 0.30 | 3.6% | Renewed |
| 8 (8) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.14 | 0.15 | -5.5% | Renewed |
| 9 (9) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.14 | 0.15 | -6.0% | Final Season |
| 10 (10) | Legacies (O) | CW | 0.13 | 0.15 | -8.6% | Renewed |
| 11 (11) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.51 | 0.56 | -9.6% | Cancelled |
| 12 (12) | Manifest (O) | NBC | 0.52 | 0.57 | -10.1% | Renewal Possible |
| 13 (13) | Batwoman (O) | CW | 0.12 | 0.15 | -15.8% | Renewed |
| 14 (14) | The Walking Dead World Beyond (O) | AMC | 0.25 | 0.30 | -16.7% | Renewed |
| 15 (15) | Snowpiercer | TNT | 0.25 | 0.30 | -17.4% | Renewed |
| 16 (16) | Swamp Thing (O) | CW | 0.12 | 0.15 | -18.5% | Cancelled |
| 17 (17) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.12 | 0.15 | -21.2% | Final Season |
| 18 (18) | Primal | ADSW | 0.19 | 0.25 | -24.0% | Renewed |
| 19 (19) | Debris (O) | NBC | 0.40 | 0.57 | -29.9% | On the Bubble |
| 20 (20) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.10 | 0.15 | -32.0% | Renewed |
| 21 (21) | Nancy Drew (O) | CW | 0.09 | 0.15 | -39.3% | Renewed |
| 22 (22) | Two Sentence Horror Stories | CW | 0.09 | 0.15 | -40.0% | Renewed |
| 23 (23) | Charmed (O) (F) | CW | 0.08 | 0.15 | -42.6% | Renewed |
| 24 (24) | The Outpost | CW | 0.08 | 0.15 | -44.1% | Renewal Possible |
| 25 (25) | Trickster | CW | 0.08 | 0.15 | -49.0% | Cancelled |
| 26 (26) | Pandora | CW | 0.07 | 0.15 | -52.4% | On the Bubble |
| 27 (27) | The Nevers (O) | HBO | 0.09 | 0.20 | -56.0% | Renewal Possible |
| 28 (28) | Wynonna Earp | Syfy | 0.06 | 0.15 | -58.9% | Cancelled |
| 29 (29) | NeXt | FOX | 0.25 | 0.64 | -61.6% | Cancelled |
| 30 (30) | Star Trek Discovery (O) | CBS | 0.21 | 0.56 | -62.2% | Renewed |
| 31 (31) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.06 | 0.15 | -63.3% | Final Season |
| 32 (32) | His Dark Materials | HBO | 0.05 | 0.20 | -73.6% | Renewed |
| 33 (33) | American Gods (O) | Starz | 0.04 | 0.15 | -76.7% | Cancelled |
| 34 (34) | The Watch | BBCA | 0.03 | 0.25 | -86.3% | On the Bubble |
| 35 (35) | Moonbase 8 | Show | 0.01 | 0.20 | -95.6% | On the Bubble |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily
