Cancellation Watch Scorecard: The Passage, Deadly Class, and More Slip in the Rankings

Several shows slipped in the rankings this week due to declining ratings. FOX’s The Passage slipped two slots to Number 16 after its ratings dropped last week. Syfy’s Deadly Class slipped one slot to Number 13 as that show has been trending down for several weeks. The CW’s Roswell New Mexico dropped three slots to Number 14 after its ratings dipped last week. And Freeform’s Siren continues to drop as is slipped two more slots to Number 19. God Friended Me and Black Lightning both look like they saw decent gains in the rankings this week, but that was more about several of the shows above dropping below them. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week in our latest Weekly Roundup post.




The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through March 3rd:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.94 0.50 288.7% Renewed
2 (2) The Flash (O) CW 0.67 0.35 93.3% Renewed
3 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.96 0.50 91.8% Renewed
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.41 0.30 36.0% Renewed
5 (5) Supernatural (O) CW 0.42 0.35 22.2% Renewed
6 (7) Arrow (O) CW 0.42 0.35 20.0% Renewed
7 (6) Riverdale (O) CW 0.41 0.35 17.8% Renewed
8 (8) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.19 0.17 13.7% Renewed
9 (9) Supergirl (O) CW 0.39 0.35 13.3% Renewed
10 (10) Manifest (O) NBC 1.25 1.17 7.2% Renewal Possible
11 (13) God Friended Me (O) CBS 0.91 0.97 -6.3% Renewed
12 (15) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.32 0.35 -6.7% Renewed
13 (12) Deadly Class (O) Syfy 0.16 0.17 -8.4% Renewal Possible
14 (11) Roswell New Mexico (O) CW 0.32 0.35 -8.5% Renewal Possible
15 (16) Legacies (O) CW 0.32 0.35 -8.5% Renewed
16 (14) The Passage (O) FOX 0.96 1.05 -8.9% Renewal Possible
17 (18) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.31 0.35 -9.7% Renewed
18 (19) Project Blue Book (O) History 0.32 0.36 -11.8% Renewed
19 (17) Siren (O) Freeform 0.18 0.20 -12.5% Renewal Possible
20 (20) Charmed (O) CW 0.30 0.35 -13.3% Renewed
21 (21) Outlander (O) Starz 0.17 0.20 -15.0% Renewed
22 (22) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -22.2% Renewed
23 (24) Z Nation (F) Syfy 0.13 0.17 -23.5% Cancelled
24 (23) The Orville (O) FOX 0.80 1.05 -23.9% Renewal Possible
25 (25) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.73 0.97 -25.6% Renewal Possible
26 (26) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.83 1.17 -29.2% Renewed
27 (27) Nightflyers Syfy 0.11 0.17 -36.9% Cancelled
28 (28) Gotham (O) FOX 0.65 1.05 -38.1% Final Season
29 (29) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.61 1.05 -42.3% Cancellation Likely
30 (30) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.09 0.17 -45.7% Renewed
31 (31) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.04 0.08 -46.9% Cancelled
32 (32) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.07 0.17 -57.8% Cancelled
33 (33) Midnight Texas (O) (F) NBC 0.41 1.17 -64.7% Cancelled
34 (34) Mars NGC 0.06 0.16 -65.6% Renewal Possible
35 (35) Counterpart Starz 0.05 0.20 -75.5% Cancelled

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Author: johnnyjay

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