Cancellation Watch Scorecard Scorecard: Project Blue Book Slips But It’s Still Flying

By | February 13, 2019

The History Channel’s UFO-investigation series Project Blue Book slipped in the rankings this week (from Number 16 to Number 20), but there is no need to worry about that one because it has already been renewed for a second season.  It’s ratings slipped some the last couple of weeks leading to the drop in the rankings, but it is still doing quite well for a cable series and I may have set the benchmark a bit high because I don’t have good historical data for the History Channel.  Also slipping was Freeform’s Siren (from Number 11 to Number 13) as that one took a dip in the ratings last week.  If it rebounds it should be fine, though.  FOX’s The Passage dropped one slot to Number 14 as it ratings have been down after a promising start.

Usually at this time of year I shift the bar for the broadcast networks to focus more on the numbers from the second half of the season because that is what the network execs are looking at by now.  But The CW has already renewed all its Fall genre entries, CBS has renewed God Friended Me, FOX’s The Gifted and NBC’s The Passage will have aired most of their episodes in the Fall, and MacGyver should be a lock for renewal because it is in the syndication stretch.  So there is really not much need for a shift in methodology at this point and I will leave the ranking calcs as they are for now.

Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week in our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through February 3rd:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 2.02 0.50 304.4% Renewed
2 (2) The Flash (O) CW 0.68 0.35 93.1% Renewed
3 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.96 0.50 91.8% Renewed
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.41 0.30 36.0% Renewed
5 (7) Supernatural (O) CW 0.42 0.35 21.0% Renewed
6 (6) Arrow (O) CW 0.42 0.35 19.2% Renewed
7 (5) Riverdale (O) CW 0.42 0.35 19.2% Renewed
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.40 0.35 14.4% Renewed
9 (9) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.19 0.17 13.7% Renewed
10 (10) Manifest (O) NBC 1.28 1.17 9.3% Renewal Possible
11 (14) Deadly Class (O) Syfy 0.17 0.17 1.5% Renewal Possible
12 (12) Roswell New Mexico (O) CW 0.35 0.35 0.1% Renewal Possible
13 (11) Siren (O) Freeform 0.19 0.20 -3.3% Renewal Possible
14 (13) The Passage (O) FOX 1.03 1.06 -3.4% Renewal Possible
15 (15) God Friended Me (O) CBS 0.95 0.99 -3.6% Renewed
16 (18) Legacies (O) CW 0.33 0.35 -5.6% Renewed
17 (17) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.33 0.35 -7.1% Renewed
18 (19) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.31 0.35 -10.6% Renewed
19 (20) Charmed (O) CW 0.31 0.35 -11.6% Renewed
20 (16) Project Blue Book (O) History 0.33 0.38 -12.1% Renewed
21 (21) Outlander (O) Starz 0.17 0.20 -15.0% Renewed
22 (22) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -20.0% Renewed
23 (23) The Orville (O) FOX 0.82 1.06 -23.0% Renewal Possible
24 (24) Z Nation (F) Syfy 0.13 0.17 -23.5% Cancelled
25 (25) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.72 0.99 -27.1% Renewal Possible
26 (26) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.83 1.17 -29.5% Renewed
27 (27) Gotham (O) FOX 0.68 1.06 -35.9% Final Season
28 (28) Nightflyers Syfy 0.11 0.17 -36.9% On the Bubble
29 (29) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.64 1.06 -39.8% On the Bubble
30 (30) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.09 0.17 -45.7% Renewed
31 (31) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.04 0.08 -46.9% Cancelled
32 (32) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.07 0.17 -57.8% Cancelled
33 (33) Midnight Texas (O) (F) NBC 0.41 1.17 -64.9% Cancelled
34 (34) Mars NGC 0.06 0.16 -65.6% Renewal Possible
35 (35) Counterpart Starz 0.05 0.20 -76.7% Cancelled

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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