Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Siren Enters in the Top 10, Deadly Class and The Passage Slip

By | January 30, 2019

Freeform’s fantasy series Siren returned for its second season last week and posted a slight gain to its year-over-year ratings which finds the show entering the Scorecard in the Top 10 at the Number 8 slot. Also debuting last week was Syfy’s The Magicians which was down from last year, finding it at a lower than usual rank of Number 12. But that show has already been renewed for a fifth season. That network’s other new series Deadly Class took a notable drop in the rankings during its second week slipping from Number 5 to Number 14 after its ratings dropped from its premiere. FOX’s new series The Passage also slipped in the Scorecard due to falling ratings, dropping from Number 6 to Number 13. I would expect those two shows to level out in the coming weeks, but we will have to see how they track.  Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental. For the ratings coverage from this past week, be sure to check out our latest Weekly Roundup post.




The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through January 27th:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 2.03 0.50 305.0% Renewal Likely
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.96 0.50 91.8% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.67 0.35 90.3% Renewal Likely
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.41 0.30 36.0% Renewed
5 (7) Riverdale (O) CW 0.43 0.35 22.1% Renewal Likely
6 (8) Arrow (O) CW 0.42 0.35 19.3% Renewal Likely
7 (9) Supernatural (O) CW 0.42 0.35 18.8% Renewal Possible
8 (n/a) Siren (O) Freeform 0.23 0.20 15.0% Renewal Possible
9 (12) Roswell New Mexico (O) CW 0.40 0.35 13.6% Renewal Possible
10 (10) Supergirl (O) CW 0.40 0.35 13.6% Renewal Likely
11 (11) Manifest (O) NBC 1.33 1.18 12.9% Renewal Possible
12 (n/a) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.19 0.17 11.8% Renewed
13 (6) The Passage (O) FOX 1.15 1.06 8.5% Renewal Possible
14 (5) Deadly Class (O) Syfy 0.18 0.17 2.9% Renewal Possible
15 (14) Project Blue Book (O) History 0.37 0.38 -2.6% Renewal Possible
16 (13) God Friended Me (O) CBS 0.95 0.98 -3.1% Renewal Possible
17 (15) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.33 0.35 -6.3% Renewal Possible
18 (16) Legacies (O) CW 0.33 0.35 -7.7% Renewal Possible
19 (17) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.31 0.35 -11.2% Renewal Possible
20 (18) Charmed (O) CW 0.31 0.35 -12.2% Renewal Possible
21 (21) Outlander (O) Starz 0.17 0.20 -15.0% Renewed
22 (19) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -19.2% Renewed
23 (20) The Orville (O) FOX 0.84 1.06 -20.7% Renewal Possible
24 (22) Z Nation (F) Syfy 0.13 0.17 -23.5% Cancelled
25 (23) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.72 0.98 -27.3% Renewal Possible
26 (24) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.83 1.18 -30.2% Renewed
27 (25) Gotham (O) FOX 0.68 1.06 -36.3% Final Season
28 (26) Nightflyers Syfy 0.11 0.17 -36.9% On the Bubble
29 (27) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.64 1.06 -39.8% On the Bubble
30 (28) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.09 0.17 -45.7% Renewed
31 (29) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.04 0.08 -46.9% Cancelled
32 (30) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.07 0.17 -57.8% Cancelled
33 (31) Midnight Texas (O) (F) NBC 0.41 1.18 -65.2% Cancelled
34 (32) Mars NGC 0.06 0.16 -65.6% Renewal Possible
35 (33) Counterpart Starz 0.04 0.20 -79.3% On the Bubble

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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