Syfy’s assassin school series Deadly Class and FOX’s pre-apocalypse series The Passage had their debuts last week and both pulled good numbers for for their first outings (more on the ratings results at this link). That finds them entering the rankings in the Top 10 with the former in the Top 5. Deadly Class starts out at the Number 5 slot and The Passage is right behind at Number 6. The latter show will probably drop in the next set of rankings based on the early numbers from this week, but both are off to a good start for now. Also premiering last week was The CW’s aliens-among-us series Roswell New Mexico and that one starts out in the Number 12 slot after pulling decent premiere ratings for its network.
Dropping in the rankings this week was NBC’s Manifest which slipped five slots from Number 6 to Number 11. Part of that is due to a drop in its ratings, but it also got pushed down two slots by the above shows entering ahead of it. History Channel’s Project Blue Book looks to have dropped four slots to Number 14, but its is really only one because three shows entered ahead of it. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental. For the ratings coverage from this past week, be sure to check out our latest Weekly Roundup post.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through January 20th:
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 2.03 | 0.50 | 305.0% | Renewal Likely |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 0.96 | 0.50 | 91.8% | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.67 | 0.35 | 87.8% | Renewal Likely |
| 4 (4) | The Purge (O) | USA | 0.41 | 0.30 | 36.0% | Renewed |
| 5 (n/a) | Deadly Class (O) | Syfy | 0.22 | 0.17 | 29.4% | Renewal Possible |
| 6 (n/a) | The Passage (O) | FOX | 1.30 | 1.05 | 23.5% | Renewal Possible |
| 7 (5) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.43 | 0.35 | 22.1% | Renewal Likely |
| 8 (7) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.42 | 0.35 | 19.0% | Renewal Likely |
| 9 (9) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.42 | 0.35 | 18.3% | Renewal Possible |
| 10 (8) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.41 | 0.35 | 15.5% | Renewal Likely |
| 11 (6) | Manifest (O) | NBC | 1.36 | 1.19 | 14.8% | Renewal Possible |
| 12 (n/a) | Roswell New Mexico (O) | CW | 0.40 | 0.35 | 12.7% | Renewal Possible |
| 13 (11) | God Friended Me (O) | CBS | 0.95 | 0.99 | -3.7% | Renewal Possible |
| 14 (10) | Project Blue Book (O) | Hist | 0.37 | 0.38 | -3.9% | Renewal Possible |
| 15 (12) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.33 | 0.35 | -6.1% | Renewal Possible |
| 16 (13) | Legacies (O) | CW | 0.33 | 0.35 | -7.4% | Renewal Possible |
| 17 (15) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.31 | 0.35 | -12.0% | Renewal Possible |
| 18 (14) | Charmed (O) | CW | 0.31 | 0.35 | -12.7% | Renewal Possible |
| 19 (17) | Star Wars Resistance (O) | Disney | 0.08 | 0.10 | -16.7% | Renewed |
| 20 (16) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 0.88 | 1.05 | -16.8% | Renewal Possible |
| 21 (18) | Outlander (O) | Starz | 0.17 | 0.20 | -17.5% | Renewed |
| 22 (19) | Z Nation (F) | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -23.5% | Cancelled |
| 23 (20) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.72 | 0.99 | -27.7% | Renewal Possible |
| 24 (21) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 0.84 | 1.19 | -29.6% | Renewed |
| 25 (22) | Gotham (O) | FOX | 0.70 | 1.05 | -33.5% | Final Season |
| 26 (23) | Nightflyers | Syfy | 0.11 | 0.17 | -36.9% | On the Bubble |
| 27 (24) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 0.65 | 1.05 | -38.2% | On the Bubble |
| 28 (25) | Van Helsing (F) | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -45.7% | Renewed |
| 29 (26) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.04 | 0.08 | -46.9% | Renewal Possible |
| 30 (27) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.07 | 0.17 | -57.8% | Cancelled |
| 31 (28) | Midnight Texas (O) (F) | NBC | 0.41 | 1.19 | -65.4% | Cancelled |
| 32 (29) | Mars | NGC | 0.06 | 0.16 | -65.6% | Renewal Possible |
| 33 (30) | Counterpart | Starz | 0.04 | 0.20 | -80.0% | On the Bubble |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
