FOX’s space dramedy The Orville took a drop in the rankings this week falling six slots from Number 10 to Number 16. That was expected, though, because its rank last week was skewed by its Sunday night debut numbers which received a boost from NFL football. But since moving to its regular Thursday night timeslot, the show has been at series low levels. It did see a slight improvement in its ratings this past week and this one usually does well with delayed viewing, so I am not raising the red flag on it just yet. History’s UFO-investigation series Project Blue Book had its debut last week and it enters the rankings in the Number 10 slot. That number is somewhat fudged, though, because I don’t have good relative ratings data for that network. I do know that the show had the highest debut for a cable series in the 2018-19 season so far based on Live+3 viewing, so the show appears to be doing okay out of the gate. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental. For the ratings coverage from this past week, be sure to check out our latest Weekly Roundup post.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through January 13th:
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 2.03 | 0.50 | 305.0% | Renewal Likely |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 0.96 | 0.50 | 91.8% | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.68 | 0.36 | 89.1% | Renewal Likely |
| 4 (4) | The Purge (O) | USA | 0.41 | 0.30 | 36.0% | Renewed |
| 5 (5) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.43 | 0.36 | 19.1% | Renewal Likely |
| 6 (9) | Manifest (O) | NBC | 1.41 | 1.19 | 18.4% | Renewal Possible |
| 7 (6) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.42 | 0.36 | 18.3% | Renewal Likely |
| 7 (7) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.42 | 0.36 | 18.3% | Renewal Likely |
| 9 (8) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.42 | 0.36 | 18.3% | Renewal Possible |
| 10 (n/a) | Project Blue Book (O) | Hist | 0.43 | 0.37 | 16.2% | Upcoming |
| 11 (11) | God Friended Me (O) | CBS | 0.95 | 0.99 | -3.4% | Renewal Possible |
| 12 (12) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.33 | 0.36 | -6.6% | Renewal Possible |
| 13 (13) | Legacies (O) | CW | 0.33 | 0.36 | -7.9% | Renewal Possible |
| 14 (14) | Charmed (O) | CW | 0.32 | 0.36 | -9.7% | Renewal Possible |
| 15 (15) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.31 | 0.36 | -12.4% | Renewal Possible |
| 16 (10) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 0.93 | 1.07 | -12.8% | Renewal Possible |
| 17 (16) | Star Wars Resistance (O) | Disney | 0.08 | 0.10 | -16.4% | Renewed |
| 18 (17) | Outlander (O) | Starz | 0.16 | 0.20 | -20.9% | Renewed |
| 19 (18) | Z Nation (F) | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -23.5% | Cancelled |
| 20 (19) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.71 | 0.99 | -28.3% | Renewal Possible |
| 21 (20) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 0.84 | 1.19 | -29.5% | Renewed |
| 22 (21) | Gotham (O) | FOX | 0.70 | 1.07 | -34.6% | Final Season |
| 23 (22) | Nightflyers | Syfy | 0.11 | 0.17 | -36.9% | On the Bubble |
| 24 (23) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 0.66 | 1.07 | -38.0% | On the Bubble |
| 25 (24) | Van Helsing (F) | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -45.7% | Renewed |
| 26 (25) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.04 | 0.08 | -46.9% | Renewal Possible |
| 27 (26) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.07 | 0.17 | -57.8% | Cancellation Likely |
| 28 (28) | Midnight Texas (O) (F) | NBC | 0.41 | 1.19 | -65.5% | Cancelled |
| 29 (27) | Mars | NGC | 0.06 | 0.16 | -65.6% | Renewal Possible |
| 30 (29) | Counterpart | Starz | 0.03 | 0.20 | -84.0% | On the Bubble |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
