Sci Fi TV Network Scorecard 2022: Netflix

Network Scorecard: Scoring the networks based on their history of airing and supporting sci fi and fantasy television shows.

Network Overview

Netflix got its start in the late ’90s as a DVD-by-mail rental service. It grew from a small player in the rental market to a major force (eventually making video rental stores nearly extinct), and then in 2007 it expanded into streaming. At first its output included only acquired movies and TV series, though by 2013 Netflix made the move to producing original scripted shows starting with the much-acclaimed House of Cards.  (Technically, 2012’s Lilyhammer came first, but that was a Norwegian-American co-production that ran exclusively on Netflix in the U.S.) The streamer’s output was minimal at first, but by the mid-2010s it had ramped up its originals and expanded to worldwide production. Since the 2012-13 season, Netflix has put out over 220 new original scripted series focused on the U.S. market, more than double what any one of the broadcast networks put out over the same timeframe. As far as sci fi and fantasy shows, the streamer has released 74 since the 2012-13 season, also far exceeding any of the broadcast nets. And those numbers are even higher when international productions are factored in.

What Type of Sci Fi Shows Does the Network Air?

Netflix’s output of sci fi and fantasy shows has been all across the board since its first, rather modest, genre entry Hemlock Grove premiered in 2013. More supernatural/horror entries would follow like The Haunting and Locke & Key. It has done straight sci fi such as Altered Carbon and Lost in Space. It has produced superhero shows like Daredevil and the other MCU entries along with The Umbrella Academy. It has ventured into fantasy with The Witcher and Warrior Nun. It has picked up shows from other networks like Black Mirror, Lucifer, and Manifest. It has done Anime like Castlevania and Pacific Rim: The Black. And it has thrown out some genre-bending shows like Sense8 and The OA. And the streamer has also been involved with notable international productions like The Dark (Germany), The Rain (Denmark), and 3% (Brazil). But for the purposes of this analysis, I am focusing mostly on the more adult and/or family-oriented shows that are Netflix’s equivalent to Prime Time broadcasting and that are focused primarily on the U.S. audience (with a few exceptions like Voltron: Legendary Defender). That encompasses over two hundred scripted shows and offers a good sampling of the streamer’s content.  Netflix has also shifted to big-budget productions over the past few years (as have most of the streamers) with shows like Stranger Things, The Witcher, and Jupiter’s Legacy costing ten million per episode or more.  And while that brings high production values, it also makes some of these shows (particularly the latter entry) more vulnerable if viewership does not meet up to expectations.

How Quick is the Network to Cancel Sci Fi Shows?

The cancellation rate of Netflix’s sci fi and fantasy shows is only slightly higher than that for the scripted entries in its general population, but it has been a whole lot quicker at cancelling all of its shows over the past few seasons. Since the streamer started producing scripted programming in the 2012-13 season, 38% of genre shows have been cancelled after one season, a little bit higher than the 36% rate for all scripted shows. If you narrow that to the first five years of the streamer’s output, only 5% of genre shows were cancelled after one season (one out of 21). That was lower than the general population during that same timeframe which saw a still low cancellation rate of 14%. But since the 2018-19 season, 51% of sci fi and fantasy shows have been cancelled after one season with 46% of all shows getting the ax after one year. So after several years of allowing shows to go at least two seasons if not more, Netflix’s cancellation rate is much closer to that of the Big Four broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC) for the last four seasons.  And the streamer has not been shy about cancelling high-profile, big-dollar series like Resident Evil, Cowboy Bebop, Jupiter’s Legacy, and more.  If the Netflix execs decide that people are not watching a show all the way through, they will cancel it even if it starts out with high viewership numbers.

Netflix New Scripted Programming 2012-13 Season thru 2020-21 Season

Does the Network Have a Three-to-Four Season Wall?

While Netflix originals had a good chance of surviving past their first season early on, rarely have those shows lasted longer than four seasons. Some of the earliest Netflix originals like House of Cards, Orange Is the New Black, and Bojack Horseman survived for six seasons or more, but very few beyond that have lasted longer than four seasons. Netflix has a strategy to churn through originals at a pretty fast pace because new shows tend to drive more subscribers to the service than returning ones. And just as the broadcast networks typically see viewership drop for shows in subsequent seasons after their first, diminishing returns on new subscribers impact streaming entries. In addition, Netflix has a cost-plus model for its shows where it pays more for each new season. So it has a disincentive to bring back shows seeing as they cost more and bring in fewer new subs. So far, the only genre entries that have lasted longer than four seasons on Netflix have been animated shows with one exception. Voltron: Legendary Defender had eight seasons and The Dragon Prince has been renewed through a seventh season. Stranger Things has been renewed for a fifth and final season, and it is possible that The Witcher or Black Mirror could break the four-season wall (the first two seasons of the latter are not factored in as they aired on Channel 4). But no other sci fi/fantasy show from the streamer has lasted longer than four seasons, nor does it appear any non-animated entry is on track to exceed that at this point. Of the 220+ shows that I tracked for this analysis, only sixteen total will have gone for five seasons or more or have been renewed through a fifth season. That is 7% of the streamer’s shows whereas the broadcast networks typically have about 12% of their shows lasting for five seasons or more.

Network Score

I give Netflix a score of 2 on a scale of 1 to 5 (5 being the highest). That would have been at least a point higher a few years back when the cancellation rate was lower, but the streamer has been much quicker to cancel the last few years. And that includes highly-watched shows like Jupiter’s Legacy, The Irregulars, and Away. In addition, Netflix’s churn strategy and three-to-four season wall impose a limit on the chances that a show will have a lengthy run and fails to reward loyal viewership. Short runs for a show are not necessarily a bad thing, and plenty of sci fi and fantasy entries could have benefited from less padding. But the Netflix strategy is not necessarily in sync with the creative side of the shows. For example, The OA creators planned a five-season run for the show, but that tenure is unlikely for almost any show on the streamer. The big budgets the streamer has been shelling out could also limit the run for a series because those are not sustainable over multiple years.  So while Netflix offers plenty of choices for genre fans, don’t get attached to any one show because it could get yanked quite quickly, and at best it will stick around for four seasons and a max of forty episodes unless it is a breakout hit along the lines of Stranger Things.

List of Sci Fi/Fantasy Originals

This is a list of the scripted sci fi and fantasy shows that have debuted on Netflix since it began producing original content. This does not include foreign productions, and the season count for shows that were picked up like Black Mirror and Lucifer only reflects those produced by the streamer.  Shows that have had their final season announced like The Umbrella Academy are counted as ended in this list. For renewed shows, the upcoming confirmed season is counted.

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