NBC’s Manifest has been struggling in the ratings so far in its third season and has seen its ranking drop from Number 7 where it started out in April to Number 12 in the latest Scorecard. It is performing eleven percent below the network’s benchmark, but that may not be too bad for the current pandemic-challenged schedule. I still have that one as a possible renewal candidate as we approach the Upfronts when the networks will announce their line-ups for the coming season. The CW’s Legends of Tomorrow returned for its sixth season last week with its numbers down and it starts off at the Number 20 slot. That one has already been renewed for a seventh year, but it will be on final season watch. The rest of the movement in the Scorecard was mostly incidental and you can see the full ratings results from the week at this link.
The Scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through May 2nd:
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 0.67 | 0.30 | 124.8% | Final Season |
| 2 (2) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.30 | 0.15 | 100.5% | Final Season |
| 3 (3) | Superman & Lois (O) | CW | 0.28 | 0.15 | 88.5% | Renewal Possible |
| 4 (4) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.26 | 0.15 | 70.9% | Renewed |
| 5 (5) | Resident Alien (O) | Syfy | 0.19 | 0.15 | 28.7% | Renewed |
| 6 (6) | Kung Fu (O) | CW | 0.19 | 0.15 | 27.0% | Renewed |
| 7 (7) | Fear the Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 0.32 | 0.30 | 5.5% | Renewed |
| 8 (9) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.14 | 0.15 | -7.1% | Renewed |
| 9 (8) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.14 | 0.15 | -7.8% | Final Season |
| 10 (12) | Legacies (O) | CW | 0.14 | 0.15 | -9.8% | Renewed |
| 11 (11) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.51 | 0.56 | -10.2% | Cancelled |
| 12 (10) | Manifest (O) | NBC | 0.52 | 0.58 | -10.6% | Renewal Possible |
| 13 (13) | Batwoman (O) | CW | 0.13 | 0.15 | -16.5% | Renewed |
| 14 (14) | The Walking Dead World Beyond (O) | AMC | 0.25 | 0.30 | -16.7% | Renewed |
| 15 (15) | Snowpiercer | TNT | 0.25 | 0.30 | -17.4% | Renewed |
| 16 (17) | Swamp Thing (O) | CW | 0.12 | 0.15 | -19.8% | Cancelled |
| 17 (16) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.12 | 0.15 | -19.8% | Final Season |
| 18 (18) | Primal | ADSW | 0.19 | 0.25 | -24.0% | Renewed |
| 19 (19) | Debris (O) | NBC | 0.41 | 0.58 | -29.8% | On the Bubble |
| 20 (n/a) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.10 | 0.15 | -33.2% | Renewed |
| 21 (20) | Nancy Drew (O) | CW | 0.09 | 0.15 | -38.8% | Renewed |
| 22 (21) | Two Sentence Horror Stories | CW | 0.09 | 0.15 | -41.0% | Renewed |
| 23 (22) | Charmed (O) (F) | CW | 0.09 | 0.15 | -43.2% | Renewed |
| 24 (23) | The Outpost | CW | 0.08 | 0.15 | -45.0% | Renewal Possible |
| 25 (24) | Trickster | CW | 0.08 | 0.15 | -49.9% | Cancelled |
| 26 (26) | Pandora | CW | 0.07 | 0.15 | -53.2% | On the Bubble |
| 27 (25) | The Nevers (O) | HBO | 0.09 | 0.20 | -56.3% | Renewal Possible |
| 28 (27) | Wynonna Earp | Syfy | 0.06 | 0.15 | -58.9% | Cancelled |
| 29 (28) | NeXt | FOX | 0.25 | 0.65 | -61.8% | Cancelled |
| 30 (29) | Star Trek Discovery (O) | CBS | 0.21 | 0.56 | -62.4% | Renewed |
| 31 (30) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.05 | 0.15 | -68.9% | Final Season |
| 32 (31) | His Dark Materials | HBO | 0.05 | 0.20 | -73.6% | Renewed |
| 33 (32) | American Gods (O) | Starz | 0.04 | 0.15 | -76.7% | Cancelled |
| 34 (33) | The Watch | BBCA | 0.03 | 0.25 | -86.3% | Renewal Possible |
| 35 (34) | Moonbase 8 | Show | 0.01 | 0.20 | -95.6% | On the Bubble |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily
