Season Roundup: Scoring The 2019-20 Season’s Predictions for the Sci Fi and Fantasy Shows

The 2019-20 regular season is over, so now it’s time for the annual review of my renewal and cancellation predictions from the season to see how accurate they were.   I have predictions for all shows across the broadcast networks, cable channels, and streaming services available at the Cancellation Watch Page.  But for the streamers, those are usually just a guess because they don’t share their viewership numbers, and for some of the cable shows it is mostly guesswork if they are imports and/or have streaming/international deals propping them up.  The ones that I count in my end-of-year scoring of the predictions are the broadcast network shows and most of the cable entries (I typically exclude the imports that previously aired in their home country like His Dark Materials).

This review was delayed because it has taken the networks longer than usual to make announcements with some uncertainty impacting their schedules as production slowly starts to ramp back up.  But with the renewal of Manifest finally announced this week, I’ve decided to go ahead with the assessment working with the information currently available. We still waiting on word on shows like Syfy’s Vagrant Queen, Freeform’s Siren, and AMC’s Dispatches from Elsewhere. HBO’s Watchmen is also one that has not received a renewal announcement, but it may be a while before network execs from that premium cable channel make a decision on that show. I have all of those listed as Pending and they are not counting in the scoring at this point, but I will update the post as announcements are made. Below is the list of shows that I have included in the scoring for this season along with their final status (plus those that are pending).

If I had a show at Cancellation Likely status and it was cancelled, I got it right. If I had it at Renewal Likely or Renewal Possible status and it was renewed, I got it right. I counted both the Renewal statuses the same, but if you want to hold me more accountable for the Renewal Likely designation, that’s fine because it will improve my score (in other words, I got those all right). If I put the show as On the Bubble, I’m basically saying it is a toss-up, and those count as a push. Overall, I was 94% accurate with my predictions, with only one missed prediction so far (I had History’s Project Blue Book as Renewal Possible, but it was cancelled). Last year, my accuracy was at 93%.

Score Calculation = Count of Right Divided by Total Count of Right and Wrong  

I currently have Vagrant Queen and Dispatches from Elsewhere at Cancellation Likely status. If I end up missing on one of those, that would drop me to 90% accuracy. If both end up getting renewed (unlikely), that would drop me to 85% accuracy. Even at that level, though, that’s a pretty good accuracy rate in the ever-changing television environment these days. The TV Grim Reaper had a 70% accuracy rate for this year for broadcast network shows (though that was impacted by COVID-19 uncertainty), which was down from his usual accuracy rate in the upper 80’s / lower 90’s (my accuracy was 100% for the broadcast net shows). The Cancellation Bear was cancelled this year, so he never put out final predictions.

If you have pushed me to make a final call on the Bubble shows, I believe it would have been a wash.  I would have leaned towards renewal for ABC’s Emergence, but it was cancelled.  I would have leaned towards cancellation for Syfy’s The Magicians and USA’s The Purge, which would have gone in my favor.  But I was almost at the point of moving Freeform’s Motherland Fort Salem to Cancellation Likely when it got the renewal nod.  For Syfy’s Van Helsing, I was leaning towards it getting a fifth and final season renewal announcement, and that’s exactly what happened.

I keep expecting my accuracy rate to drop, but it has actually gone up the last two years in a row (it was at 85% for the 2017-18 season).  But as more and more original programming heads to the streaming services, there will be fewer shows with ratings data.  And within a couple of years, we could see the Nielsen ratings become mostly irrelevant (unless they finally start releasing stats on the streaming shows).  Until then, I will continue with the predictions and hopefully will maintain my accuracy rate as long as there is data available to gauge the status of the shows airing during the season.  So be sure to stick with CancelledSciFi.com to monitor the status of your favorite sci fi and fantasy shows and to keep up with news and updates on genre television.

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