We are far enough into the current season and I have collected enough ratings data that it is time for the first Scorecard of the year. For the shows on the broadcast networks, this ranks the sci fi and fantasy entries vs. their network average for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming. Basically, other shows that could potentially replace them in the lineup. For the cable networks, I establish a benchmark based on the levels that shows have been renewed by that network in the past season or so (factoring in the current ratings declines). So all the shows in the rankings are scored based on their relation to the performance of other programming on the same network. And while the ratings are down this year across the board, once again, the Scorecard calculations take that into consideration. Shows running on the streaming services and those not heavily influenced by the ratings in the U.S. (like Doctor Who) are not included in the rankings.
As in past years in Fall, the top three remain pretty much the same. AMC’s The Walking Dead is at the top of the rankings (with no Game of Thrones to best it this year), followed by FX’s American Horror Story, and The CW’s The Flash. The ratings are down for the first two of these, but they are still doing well compared to the other shows on their networks. The rest of the Top 10 is made up of CW shows with the exception of Adult Swim’s Primal which had a decent first season run and ranks at the Number 4 slot. The two new genre entries on the Big Four broadcast networks, ABC’s Emergence and CBS’ Evil, rank at Number 12 and 13 respectively. Both are below their network averages, but if they don’t slip too much further in the rankings they may be okay.
Toward the bottom of the rankings are several shows that are in their final seasons like NBC’s The Good Place and USA’s Mr. Robot. The CW’s Charmed looks pretty low in the Number 15 slot, but it airs on low-viewership Fridays and is likely making up some slack with digital viewing (its network has better adapted to the 21st century and pays attention to those stats). Syfy’s Van Helsing is near the bottom of the rankings, but then it is usually in that range and has managed to hang on since it is not an expensive production and has a dedicated fanbase.
I will continue to update these rankings weekly throughout the season and they should provide a decent gauge for performance of shows whose fates are determined by the ratings. Other factors do come into play which could affect a show’s survival–especially for the cable channels–and these numbers are based only on the same day viewing ratings. But they do provide a leading indicator and shows that are in the lower half of the rankings could definitely benefit from a Call to Action from fans to bring them more attention.
See metric definitions below
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Status |
| 1 (n/a) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 1.37 | 0.40 | 241.3% | Renewed |
| 2 (n/a) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 0.74 | 0.30 | 145.0% | Renewed |
| 3 (n/a) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.60 | 0.34 | 77.3% | Renewed |
| 4 (n/a) | Primal | ADSW | 0.30 | 0.25 | 20.8% | Upcoming |
| 5 (n/a) | Batwoman (O) | CW | 0.40 | 0.34 | 18.2% | Renewal Possible |
| 5 (n/a) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.40 | 0.34 | 18.2% | Final Season |
| 5 (n/a) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.40 | 0.34 | 18.2% | Renewed |
| 8 (n/a) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.35 | 0.34 | 3.4% | Renewal Possible |
| 9 (n/a) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.30 | 0.34 | -11.4% | Renewed |
| 9 (n/a) | Nancy Drew (O) | CW | 0.30 | 0.34 | -11.4% | Upcoming |
| 9 (n/a) | Legacies (O) | CW | 0.30 | 0.34 | -11.4% | Renewed |
| 12 (n/a) | Emergence (O) | ABC | 0.67 | 0.78 | -14.5% | Renewal Possible |
| 13 (n/a) | Evil (O) | CBS | 0.60 | 0.78 | -23.0% | Renewal Possible |
| 14 (n/a) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 0.63 | 0.99 | -35.7% | Final Season |
| 15 (n/a) | Charmed (O) (F) | CW | 0.20 | 0.34 | -40.9% | Renewed |
| 16 (n/a) | Van Helsing (F) | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.15 | -42.2% | Renewal Possible |
| 17 (n/a) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.12 | 0.25 | -52.0% | Final Season |
| 18 (n/a) | Star Wars Resistance (O) | Disney | 0.03 | 0.10 | -70.0% | Final Season |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
