Cancellation Watch: A Look at How Well the Scorecard Did in Predicting the Fates of Sci Fi Shows This Past Season

The 2017-18 regular season is pretty much in the books now (you can see the end of season rundown at this link), so it is a good time to look back at the Scorecard to see how successful it was at gauging whether shows would be cancelled or renewed. A quick glance at the rankings below reveals that the majority of the shows that are higher on the list have been renewed or are tracking in that direction whereas as most that are in the lower slots were sent to the Network Executioner or face an uncertain fate. So in general, it acted as a good gauge as far as the numbers are concerned with intangibles typically impacting the fate of those that were renewed when it appeared they were headed for cancellation (or vice versa).

Looking at the bottom third of the rankings (40 to 54), all of those shows are cancelled, tracking toward cancellation, or considered a toss-up (though leaning toward getting the ax) with the exception of three renewals. Two of those shows, Syfy’s Channel Zero and Starz’s Counterpart, were renewed before the season began and the former series appears headed into its final year while the latter faces an uncertain fate when it returns. The third was ABC’s Agents of SHIELD which has narrowly defeated the Network Executioner every year because the Big Mouse (Disney) wants a Marvel Universe tie-in series in Prime Time. That said, it certainly appears that one is headed into its final season. As for the cancellations, I know that fans of shows like Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency (which I thought would get renewed despite its low ranking due to its Netflix deal), The Shannara Chronicles, Ash vs. Evil Dead, and more were pulling for their shows, but the numbers were very much against them. And fans of Legion and Colony should definitely take to the social nets and make a Call to Action in support of those low-rated shows.

In the top third of the rankings (1-18), all of the shows are renewed or likely to get renewed with the exception of FOX’s Ghosted. That supernatural comedy performed well in Fall, but largely due to a boost from NFL Football leading into the Prime Time schedule. Without that, it likely would have been in the middle third of the rankings at best. And despite its decent Fall numbers, FOX execs were not happy with the quality of the show and brought in a new showrunner to finish out the season. But it never made it back to the schedule after going on hiatus and it appeared that the network had given up on it.  Apparently, though, they have decided to air the remaining episodes this Summer and then make a decision. So that one still has a chance largely on the fact that it ranked as one of FOX’s more watched shows, thus the reason it is currently at the Number 5 slot on the Scorecard.

The middle third of the rankings includes both renewals and cancellations, though more of the former because networks (not named Syfy) are still renewing more than they are cancelling these days (expect that to change drastically when the Peak TV bubble finally bursts). There were a few surprise cancellations for me among that group, though. I figured the FOX’s The Last Man on Earth (which has been a Bubble show pretty much since its first year) would get a final season nod, and I thought that Lucifer would get the renewal over Gotham (both are owned by Warner Bros.). But FOX has less room on its schedule next season due to Thursday Night Football, and the network decided to cut several of its moderately rated shows. I also figured that TNT’s The Librarians would be back for at least one more year, but apparently changes to the top brass lead to the network moving in a new direction and leaving that show behind (The Last Ship will also be sailing off after its upcoming fifth season). And the fact is that all three of those shows were ranked at the midway point or below so they were in toss-up territory anyway.  As for Syfy’s cancellation of The Expanse, that’s a whole other story that I will be getting into in an upcoming posts (Spoiler Alert: I see Syfy as a likely Peak TV casualty).

So overall the Scorecard provided a good gauge this season and shows that the same day viewing numbers still provide a leading indicator on whether a show will get renewed or cancelled. Other intangibles can impact that, and that is where my Cancellation Watch predictions (where I try to weigh in other factors beyond the ratings) come in (I did pretty well with those this season as you can see at this link). I do believe that emphasis on the numbers will decrease in the coming years, but at this point the broadcast networks and cable channels still pay close attention to the Nielsen ratings and factor those in when making renewal / cancellation decisions. You can see the full rankings for season end below, and I will continue Scorecard into the Summer months to track the shows that will be airing during the last quarter of the 2017-18 season.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through May 27th (metric definitions below):

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers