USA’s alien invasion series Colony returned last week to low ratings and that has the show starting out in the lower third of our rankings at the Number 40 slot. That one is not On the Bubble just yet, but will find itself there pretty quickly if it does not starting trending up. The CW’s The 100 slipped six slots this week (from Number 18 to Number 24), but it has only been airing for a short time and should stabilize in the coming weeks. That one just received its sixth season renewal notice yesterday. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental and you can see the full rankings below.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through May 6th (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 3.39 | 0.50 | 578.0% | 5.22 | Renewed |
| 2 (2) | Fear the Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 1.14 | 0.50 | 127.0% | n/a | Renewal Likely |
| 3 (3) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.10 | 0.50 | 120.7% | 2.47 | Renewed |
| 4 (4) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.71 | 0.39 | 83.3% | 1.61 | Renewed |
| 5 (6) | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.60 | 0.98 | 62.9% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 6 (7) | Outlander | Starz | 0.32 | 0.20 | 59.6% | 0.60 | Renewed |
| 7 (8) | The Magicians (O) | Syfy | 0.26 | 0.17 | 54.3% | 0.57 | Renewed |
| 8 (5) | Krypton | Syfy | 0.26 | 0.17 | 52.9% | 0.77 | Renewal Possible |
| 9 (9) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.56 | 0.39 | 45.2% | 0.97 | Renewed |
| 10 (10) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.54 | 0.39 | 40.0% | 0.99 | Renewed |
| 11 (11) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.53 | 0.39 | 36.6% | 1.01 | Renewed |
| 12 (12) | Westworld | HBO | 0.75 | 0.60 | 25.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 13 (14) | Happy (O) | Syfy | 0.21 | 0.17 | 24.3% | 0.55 | Renewed |
| 14 (13) | Siren | Freeform | 0.24 | 0.20 | 19.2% | 0.55 | Renewal Possible |
| 15 (15) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.44 | 0.39 | 12.8% | 1.01 | Renewed |
| 16 (17) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.41 | 0.39 | 6.3% | 0.94 | Renewed |
| 17 (19) | The Originals (O) | CW | 0.40 | 0.39 | 3.4% | n/a | Final Season |
| 18 (16) | The Expanse | Syfy | 0.18 | 0.17 | 2.9% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 19 (21) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.00 | 0.98 | 1.8% | 2.15 | Renewed |
| 20 (20) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.5% | 0.37 | Renewed |
| 21 (22) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.38 | 0.39 | -0.9% | 0.93 | Renewed |
| 22 (23) | The X-Files (O) | FOX | 0.95 | 0.98 | -3.3% | n/a | Final Season |
| 23 (24) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.04 | 1.11 | -6.1% | 1.95 | Renewed |
| 24 (18) | The 100 (O) | CW | 0.35 | 0.39 | -9.5% | n/a | Renewed |
| 25 (26) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 0.85 | 0.98 | -13.5% | 2.08 | Renewed |
| 26 (25) | Into the Badlands (O) | AMC | 0.41 | 0.50 | -18.7% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 27 (28) | Shadowhunters (O) | Freeform | 0.16 | 0.20 | -20.7% | 0.40 | Renewal Possible |
| 28 (27) | Final Space (O) | TBS | 0.24 | 0.30 | -21.5% | n/a | Renewed |
| 29 (30) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.06 | 0.08 | -21.9% | n/a | Renewed |
| 30 (29) | Lucifer | FOX | 0.77 | 0.98 | -22.0% | 1.37 | Renewal Possible |
| 31 (32) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 0.76 | 0.98 | -22.6% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 32 (31) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.83 | 1.08 | -23.1% | n/a | Renewed |
| 33 (33) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -25.8% | 0.30 | Renewed |
| 34 (34) | The Librarians | TNT | 0.29 | 0.40 | -27.5% | 0.60 | Cancelled |
| 35 (35) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.22 | 0.30 | -28.0% | 0.44 | Renewed |
| 36 (36) | Gotham | FOX | 0.69 | 0.98 | -29.9% | 1.41 | On the Bubble |
| 37 (37) | The Crossing (O) | ABC | 0.72 | 1.15 | -37.3% | 1.60 | Cancellation Likely |
| 38 (38) | iZombie (O) | CW | 0.23 | 0.39 | -39.7% | 0.50 | On the Bubble |
| 39 (39) | Timeless (O) | NBC | 0.60 | 1.11 | -45.8% | 1.23 | On the Bubble |
| 40 (n/a) | Colony (O) | USA | 0.16 | 0.30 | -46.7% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 41 (40) | Superstition | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -48.5% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 42 (42) | The Inhumans (O) (F) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.15 | -49.0% | 1.13 | Cancellation Likely |
| 42 (43) | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.15 | -49.0% | 0.97 | Cancellation Likely |
| 44 (41) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 45 (44) | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.8% | n/a | Cancelled |
| 46 (45) | Counterpart | Starz | 0.09 | 0.20 | -53.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 47 (46) | Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) | ABC | 0.53 | 1.15 | -54.1% | 1.23 | Renewal Possible |
| 48 (47) | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.3% | 0.30 | Cancelled |
| 49 (49) | Beyond | Freeform | 0.09 | 0.20 | -56.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
| 50 (48) | Legion (O) | FX | 0.21 | 0.50 | -57.2% | 0.70 | On the Bubble |
| 51 (50) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.42 | 0.98 | -57.2% | 0.60 | Cancellation Likely |
| 52 (51) | Once Upon A Time (O) (F) | ABC | 0.45 | 1.15 | -60.8% | 1.02 | Cancelled |
| 53 (52) | Ash vs Evil Dead | Starz | 0.08 | 0.20 | -62.5% | n/a | Cancelled |
| 54 (53) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
