The Scorecard ranks the ratings performance based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for all of the broadcast network and cable sci fi & fantasy shows vs. their network’s ratings benchmark. The benchmark for broadcast network shows is the season-to-date average for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier). Since these nets continue to watch the overnight ratings closely (despite what they say), this still acts as a good gauge for how well a show is performing.
For the cable channels, the benchmark is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival (as we saw with BBC America’s Dirk Gently) and that is not measured here. So there is a larger margin for error, but the Scorecard at least provides some relative data on where shows stand compared to similar programming on those channels.
Original entries from the streaming services such as Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu are not included here because they do not provide performance data for their shows.
Below is the Scorecard based on the ratings through February 12th (metric definitions below). You can read the analysis at this link. And you can see the renewal / cancellation status of all the currently airing and streaming shows at the Cancellation Watch Page.
|Rank (PW)||Series||Net||Std Avg||Net Bench||% Var||Live+7 Avg Rtg||Status|
|1 (1)||The Walking Dead||AMC||5.71||0.60||851.7%||8.43||Renewed|
|2 (2)||American Horror Story||FX||1.58||0.60||162.5%||3.16||Renewed|
|3 (4)||The Flash (O)||CW||1.13||0.53||110.9%||2.03||Renewed|
|4 (3)||The Magicians||Syfy||0.41||0.20||106.7%||n/a||Renewal Likely|
|5 (5)||Supergirl (O)||CW||0.82||0.53||53.4%||1.45||Renewed|
|6 (6)||Star Wars Rebels||DXD||0.15||0.10||50.0%||0.33||Renewal Likely|
|8 (7)||Arrow (O)||CW||0.71||0.53||32.8%||1.31||Renewed|
|9 (9)||Legends of Tomorrow (O)||CW||0.69||0.53||29.5%||1.20||Renewed|
|10 (12)||Z Nation||Syfy||0.25||0.20||24.3%||0.42||Renewed|
|11 (10)||Son of Zorn (O)||FOX||1.33||1.10||20.1%||n/a||Renewal Possible|
|12 (13)||Supernatural (O)||CW||0.64||0.53||19.3%||1.18||Renewed|
|13 (14)||Shadowhunters||Free||0.30||0.25||18.0%||n/a||Renewal Likely|
|14 (n/a)||Legion (O)||FX||0.69||0.60||15.0%||n/a||Renewal Likely|
|15 (11)||The Expanse||Syfy||0.22||0.20||7.5%||n/a||Renewal Possible|
|16 (15)||Gotham||FOX||1.14||1.10||2.9%||1.90||Renewal Likely|
|17 (16)||Lucifer||FOX||1.08||1.10||-1.7%||1.84||Renewal Possible|
|18 (17)||Stan Against Evil||IFC||0.08||0.08||-4.7%||n/a||Renewed|
|19 (18)||The Librarians||TNT||0.47||0.50||-5.2%||0.88||Renewed|
|20 (19)||Channel Zero||Syfy||0.19||0.20||-5.8%||0.38||Renewed|
|21 (20)||Colony||USA||0.28||0.30||-6.7%||0.70||Renewal Possible|
|22 (21)||The Last Man on Earth (O)||FOX||0.98||1.10||-11.4%||1.53||Renewal Possible|
|23 (22)||The Good Place (O)||NBC||1.25||1.48||-15.7%||1.91||Renewed|
|24 (23)||MacGyver (O) (F)||CBS||1.13||1.37||-17.2%||1.78||Renewal Possible|
|25 (25)||People of Earth||TBS||0.33||0.40||-18.1%||n/a||Renewed|
|26 (24)||Once Upon A Time (O)||ABC||1.05||1.29||-18.7%||1.67||Renewal Possible|
|27 (26)||Incorporated||Syfy||0.16||0.20||-20.0%||0.34||Renewal Possible|
|29 (29)||Van Helsing||Syfy||0.16||0.20||-21.3%||0.30||Renewed|
|30 (30)||Ash vs Evil Dead||STARZ||0.16||0.20||-21.5%||0.34||Renewed|
|31 (27)||Timeless||NBC||1.16||1.48||-22.0%||2.25||Cancellation Likely|
|32 (31)||The 100 (O)||CW||0.40||0.53||-25.0%||n/a||On the Bubble|
|33 (32)||Teen Wolf||MTV||0.22||0.30||-25.7%||0.46||Final Season|
|34 (35)||The Strain||FX||0.42||0.60||-30.8%||0.85||Renewed|
|35 (36)||Vampire Diaries (O) (F)||CW||0.36||0.53||-32.8%||0.73||Final Season|
|37 (33)||Powerless (O)||NBC||0.95||1.48||-35.9%||n/a||Renewal Possible|
|38 (38)||The Exorcist (O) (F)||FOX||0.67||1.10||-39.3%||1.09||Cancellation Likely|
|39 (37)||Agents of SHIELD (O)||ABC||0.77||1.29||-40.4%||1.70||Cancellation Likely|
|40 (39)||Scream Queens (O)||FOX||0.61||1.10||-44.7%||0.96||Cancellation Likely|
|41 (40)||Grimm (O) (F)||NBC||0.80||1.48||-46.1%||1.43||Final Season|
|43 (41)||Frequency (O)||CW||0.28||0.53||-48.1%||0.51||Cancellation Likely|
|44 (44)||Falling Water||USA||0.15||0.30||-51.0%||0.30||On the Bubble|
|45 (43)||Emerald City (O) (F)||NBC||0.72||1.48||-51.7%||1.43||Cancellation Likely|
|46 (45)||Sleepy Hollow (O) (F)||NBC||0.57||1.48||-61.8%||1.00||On the Bubble|
|47 (46)||Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency||BBCA||0.09||0.40||-77.5%||n/a||Renewed|
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier). For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)