Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Zoo and Killjoys Start in the Lower Half of the Rankings

By | July 6, 2017

CBS’ Zoo and Syfy’s Killjoys both had their third season debuts last week with fairly low ratings results and both start off in the lower half the the Scorecard rankings. For Zoo, I have set its benchmark at a 0.7 rating which is the same level it was renewed at last Summer. But its 0.5 debut numbers start it below that threshold and it will likely slip even further than the Number 45 slot it holds now. Killjoys returned below its second season average and starts off its third year at Number 40 in the Scorecard. I discuss the prospects of these shows in more detail in the latest Sci Fi TV Status Report column.

Slipping this week were Syfy’s Blood Drive (from Number 18 to Number 24), Spike’s The Mist (from Number 22 to Number 28) and AMC’s Preacher (from Number 20 to Number 29). I expect the latter show to remain pretty much stable at this point because it has now settled into Monday nights. But the other two may not have ended their declines just yet.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through July 2nd (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 5.39 0.60 798.2% 7.95 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 1.06 0.50 112.2% 1.88 Renewed
4 (4) Fear the Walking Dead (O) AMC 0.99 0.60 64.3% 2.00 Renewed
5 (5) The Magicians Syfy 0.31 0.20 54.6% 0.71 Renewed
6 (6) Supergirl (O) CW 0.72 0.50 45.2% 1.28 Renewed
7 (7) Star Wars Rebels (O) DXD 0.14 0.10 44.7% 0.34 Renewed
8 (8) American Gods STARZ 0.28 0.20 38.1% 0.55 Renewed
9 (9) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
10 (10) Into the Badlands AMC 0.79 0.60 31.5% 1.30 Renewed
11 (11) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 0.98 30.2% n/a Cancelled
12 (12) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.64 0.50 28.8% 1.13 Renewed
13 (13) Arrow (O) CW 0.63 0.50 25.7% 1.12 Renewed
14 (14) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
15 (15) Supernatural (O) CW 0.60 0.50 19.6% 1.07 Renewed
16 (16) Gotham FOX 1.09 0.98 10.7% 1.81 Renewed
17 (17) Shadowhunters Free 0.27 0.25 6.9% 0.50 Renewed
18 (19) Lucifer FOX 1.03 0.98 4.8% 1.77 Renewed
19 (21) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
20 (23) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
21 (24) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
22 (25) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.91 0.98 -7.0% 1.48 Renewed
23 (26) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.35 -7.4% 1.91 Renewed
24 (18) Blood Drive Syfy 0.18 0.20 -8.3% n/a Renewal Possible
25 (27) Colony USA 0.26 0.30 -12.6% 0.60 Renewed
26 (28) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.08 1.26 -14.9% 1.67 Renewed
27 (29) The Expanse Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.0% 0.39 Renewed
28 (22) The Mist Spike 0.17 0.20 -15.0% n/a Renewal Possible
29 (20) Preacher AMC 0.51 0.60 -15.8% n/a Renewal Possible
30 (30) Timeless NBC 1.11 1.35 -17.6% 2.07 Renewed
31 (31) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
32 (32) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Cancelled
32 (33) Dark Matter Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% n/a Renewal Possible
34 (34) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
35 (35) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
36 (36) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
37 (37) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 0.93 1.21 -23.1% 1.53 Renewed
38 (38) Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.08 0.10 -24.0% n/a On the Bubble
39 (39) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.38 0.50 -24.7% 0.75 Ended
40 (n/a) Killjoys Syfy 0.15 0.20 -25.0% n/a Renewal Possible
40 (40) Legion (O) FX 0.45 0.60 -25.0% 1.17 Renewed
42 (41) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.7% 0.44 Final Season
43 (42) The 100 (O) CW 0.34 0.46 -25.9% 0.64 Renewed
44 (43) Making History (O) NBC 0.67 0.90 -26.2% n/a Cancelled
45 (n/a) Zoo (O) Syfy 0.50 0.70 -28.6% n/a Cancellation Likely
46 (44) The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
47 (45) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.31 0.46 -31.2% 0.62 Renewed
48 (46) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 0.98 -31.7% 1.09 Renewed
49 (47) iZombie (O) CW 0.30 0.46 -34.3% 0.65 Renewed
50 (48) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 0.98 -37.8% 0.96 Cancelled
51 (49) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.74 1.21 -39.3% 1.58 Renewed
52 (51) Wynonna Earp Syfy 0.12 0.20 -40.0% n/a On the Bubble
53 (50) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.35 -40.7% 1.43 Ended
54 (52) The Leftovers HBO 0.35 0.60 -42.1% n/a Final Season
55 (53) Powerless (O) NBC 0.70 1.22 -42.6% n/a Cancelled
56 (54) Beyond Free 0.14 0.25 -42.7% n/a Renewed
57 (55) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.69 1.22 -43.5% 1.23 Cancelled
58 (56) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.51 0.90 -43.8% 0.94 Cancelled
59 (57) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.50 -44.4% 0.51 Cancelled
60 (58) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
61 (59) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 Renewed
62 (60) 12 Monkeys Syfy 0.09 0.20 -53.3% n/a Renewed
63 (61) Time After Time ABC 0.53 1.19 -55.9% 0.70 Cancelled
64 (62) Twin Peaks Show 0.10 0.25 -60.7% n/a Final Season
65 (63) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed
66 (64) Orphan Black BBCA 0.07 0.40 -83.8% n/a Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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