Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Zoo and Killjoys Start in the Lower Half of the Rankings

CBS’ Zoo and Syfy’s Killjoys both had their third season debuts last week with fairly low ratings results and both start off in the lower half the the Scorecard rankings. For Zoo, I have set its benchmark at a 0.7 rating which is the same level it was renewed at last Summer. But its 0.5 debut numbers start it below that threshold and it will likely slip even further than the Number 45 slot it holds now. Killjoys returned below its second season average and starts off its third year at Number 40 in the Scorecard. I discuss the prospects of these shows in more detail in the latest Sci Fi TV Status Report column.

Slipping this week were Syfy’s Blood Drive (from Number 18 to Number 24), Spike’s The Mist (from Number 22 to Number 28) and AMC’s Preacher (from Number 20 to Number 29). I expect the latter show to remain pretty much stable at this point because it has now settled into Monday nights. But the other two may not have ended their declines just yet.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through July 2nd (metric definitions below):

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers