Sci Fi Cancellation Watch: Debut of Our New and Improved Way of Compiling the Ratings Results

By | May 19, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Welcome to the new and improved Cancellation Watch column!  (Tastier! Crunchier! With more whitening power and scouring action!)  Beginning with this post, I will be compiling the ratings results for the prior week (Monday thru Sunday) into one post instead of splitting them across two or more like I have been doing.  With more and more cable sci fi / fantasy entries (especially during the Summer months) and with the delays in getting those numbers, I figured that it is easier just to wait an compile those all together in one post per week.  I will still be doing some one-off Cancellation Watch posts throughout the week with comments on notable ratings activity (like I did on Friday, noting the poor debut of new FOX series Wayward Pines), but the full ratings results will now be kept together in one post that will hit usually on Tuesdays (possibly Wednesdays if there are extended delays to the ratings numbers like next week following the Memorial Day holiday).  I will also be merging the information I previously reported on in the Charts column since there is typically not enough to justify a stand alone column with the social network activity no longer tracked by General Sentiment and the Live+3 numbers only available sporadically (i.e., this week only Game of Thrones had chart activity).  Plus, starting with this post I will be including the numbers for the import shows like Bitten and Orphan Black (where available), but note that the U.S. ratings results typically do not have as much impact on the renewal/cancellation decisions relating to them. As always, the latest ratings info will be posted at the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site shortly after it is released, so be sure to follow us there for the quickest access to the numbers and for breaking news.  And let us know in the comments section what you think of the new format as we are constantly trying to improve the Cancelled Sci Fi site and get the information you are looking for in the in most concise manner.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Monday May 11th thru Sunday May 17th (metric definitions below):

The Originals CW Mon 5/11 8 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.6 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It remained low for its season finale, but may do better when it returns next season on Thursdays.  Though The CW did lose traction on that night this year with underperforming Vampire Diaries and Reign.  But seeing as The Originals is a Third Season Show, its chances still look good next year.

Gotham FOX Mon 5/11 8 PM
Rating: Season Ended | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 2.2 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Season Ended.  Returns next year in the same timeslot though with competition in the same hour from new series Supergirl which will air on CBS.

The Returned A&E Mon 5/11 10 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.0 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.8 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

No improvement for the show’ season finale, though a deal with Netflix could help it get a second season.

The Flash CW Tue 5/12 8 PM
Rating: 1.5 | % Chng PW: +7.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.7 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

With its second to last Season 1 episode it bested ABC’s (much more expensive) Agents of SHIELD in the ratings by two ticks.  The CW definitely seems to be the winner in the superhero battle this season and new entry DC’s Legends of Tomorrow could help extend that to another year.

Chart Activity: This show did not make it into the Top 25, but based on the ratings results for the other broadcast net shows on that chart, The Flash probably came in around Number 26 or 27 which is impressive for a fifth place network show.  And it may just make it into the Top 25 with its season finale that airs tonight.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 5/12 9 PM
Rating: 1.3 | % Chng PW: -13.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.9 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

For its season finale, the show dropped to a series low and that’s not good.  I discuss its prospects for next year in more detail at this link.

iZombie CW Tue 5/12 9 PM
Rating: 0.6 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.7 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It stayed at a 0.6 rating and couldn’t take advantage of its strong lead-in from The Flash.  But this is a relatively inexpensive series and it has been receiving good buzz thus far, so there’s not too much to worry about.  This show has its season finale tonight.

Forever ABC Tue 5/12 10 PM
Rating: Season Ended | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.1 | StD Rating: 1.1 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Cancelled

Season ended and series cancelled.  Though fans are still fighting for it.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 5/12 10 PM
Rating: Season Ended | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 8.2 | StD Rating: 1.5 | Target: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Season ended and it is possibly heading into its final year.

Arrow CW Wed 5/13 8 PM
Rating: 1.0 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.8 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It held steady for its season finale and continues to perform well for the fifth place network.  Expect this show, The Flash, and Legends of Tomorrow all to leverage each other next season with ratings boosts from cross-overs.

Supernatural CW Wed 5/13 9 PM
Rating: 0.7 | % Chng PW: +16.7% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.8 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It improved slightly for its second to last Season 10 episode.  The CW president believes this show could go on forever.

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 5/14 8 PM
Rating: 0.7 | % Chng PW: +16.7% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.5 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It improved some for its season finale, but I still believe that it is heading into its final season.

Wayward Pines FOX Thu 5/14 9 PM
Rating: 1.0 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.8 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 1.5 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Not a good debut for this show, and it looks like there is little chance of it continuing beyond its “limited run”.  I go into that in more detail at this link.

Olympus Syfy Thu 5/14 10 PM
Rating: Preempted | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

Preempted.  Returns with a new episode this week.

Dig USA Thu 5/14 10 PM
Rating: Season Ended | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.3 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Season Ended.  Renewal status undetermined.

Grimm NBC Fri 5/15 9 PM
Rating: 1.1 | % Chng PW: 10.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.7 | StD Rating: 1.1 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It improved some for its season finale, but it needs to keep its numbers up next year if it wants to last beyond that.  Moving back to 9 PM EST should help.

The Messengers CW Fri 5/15 9 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.7 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Cancelled

The preliminaries made it look like it improved its numbers, but the finals bumped it back down to a 0.2 rating.  No chance that The CW will change its mind about the cancellation.

Bitten Syfy Fri 5/15 9 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.6 | StD Rating: 0.0 | Target: 0.0 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It held steady, though starting this week it moves to 11 PM EST on Fridays.  Not sure how that will impact its numbers, though I am hearing rumors that its home channel (Space up in Canada) has renewed it for a third season.

Lost Girl Syfy Fri 5/15 10 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.5 | StD Rating: 0.0 | Target: 0.0 | Cancellation Alert: Final Season

It improved for a 0.1 rating to a 0.2 which is good, but it moves to Thursdays at 10 PM EST starting this week.  Not certain how that will impact its numbers, but it is in its final season anyway.

Outlander Starz Sat 5/16 9 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: -33.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.0 | StD Rating: 0.3 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It dropped from last week and I’m thinking that Starz is going to want to see these numbers improve by a couple of ticks when it returns for its second season.  This show will take a holiday over Memorial Day weekend and return with its Season 1 finale on May 30th.

Orphan Black BBCA Sat 5/16 9 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.5 | StD Rating: 0.0 | Target: 0.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It held steady with last week and it has already been renewed for a fourth season.

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 5/17 8 PM
Rating: Season Ended | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 2.2 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Season Ended. Returns to the same timeslot next year.

Game of Thrones HBO Sun 5/17 9 PM
Rating: 3.1 | % Chng PW: -11.4% | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.2 | StD Rating: 3.6 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Oh no!  It had an eleven percent drop in its ratings week to week.  Cancellation is surely not far off, right?  No need to worry about this one, it is still one of the highest rated shows on all of television.

Chart Activity: This show came in at Number 1 on the weekly Nielsen Twitter Ratings, the same as last week.  It was also Number 2 in the cable Top 25 based on total viewers (down from Number 1 last week and beaten only by the NBA Playoffs) and would have been at Number 2 across all shows on television for the week based on ratings if they compiled that chart (behind only the Billboard Music Awards).

Penny Dreadful SHOW Sun 5/17 10 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: +50.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.6 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

I raised the Cancellation Alert level on this one last week and then it improves its numbers!  If it holds here for another week or so, I will drop it back down to a Low Cancellation Alert.

Salem WGN Sun 5/17 10 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: +100.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.3 | StD Rating: 0.1 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Like Penny Dreadful, I raised the Cancellation Alert on this show and then its numbers go up.  I didn’t figure that either show was in too much danger, but a couple more weeks at these levels will help their cause.

Be sure keep an eye out for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week at the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page and also the latest Sci Fi TV Power Rankings post. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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