Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Siren Slips in the Rankings, Westworld Improves

Freeform’s supernatural drama Siren has returned down in the ratings in its third season and the show saw its number slip even further last week. That has it slipping in the current rankings by four slots to Number 19. Also slipping a bit is Syfy’s Vagrant Queen which dropped one slot closer to the bottom at Number 18 while it ratings continue to sink. Improving this week is HBO’s Westworld which climbed two slots to Number 18 as it is one of the few genre entries seeing ratings increases of late. Starz’s Outlander also improved one slot to Number 15 as its numbers are up a bit as well. The rest of the movement among shows was mostly incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week and the status of all the currently airing shows in our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through April 12th:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.13 0.30 277.6% Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.61 0.30 103.7% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.45 0.26 72.1% Renewed
4 (4) Primal ADSW 0.30 0.25 20.8% Renewal Possible
5 (5) Arrow (O) CW 0.29 0.26 10.1% Final Season
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.28 0.26 8.1% Final Season
7 (7) Batwoman (O) CW 0.28 0.26 6.8% Renewed
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.25 0.26 -5.1% Renewed
9 (9) Legacies (O) CW 0.24 0.26 -7.4% Renewed
10 (10) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.68 0.74 -8.0% Renewal Likely
11 (11) Riverdale (O) CW 0.23 0.26 -14.6% Renewed
12 (12) Watchmen (O) HBO 0.25 0.30 -17.0% Renewal Possible
13 (13) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.21 0.26 -19.3% Renewed
14 (14) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.12 0.15 -21.1% Cancelled
15 (16) Outlander (O) Starz 0.12 0.15 -21.7% Renewed
16 (18) Westworld (O) HBO 0.23 0.30 -22.0% Renewal Possible
17 (17) Manifest (O) NBC 0.69 0.90 -23.1% Renewal Likely
18 (19) Evil (O) CBS 0.52 0.74 -29.0% Renewed
19 (15) Siren (O) Freeform 0.13 0.18 -30.6% Renewal Possible
20 (20) Charmed (O) (F) CW 0.18 0.26 -30.8% Renewed
21 (21) Emergence (O) ABC 0.48 0.72 -32.4% On the Bubble
22 (22) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.61 0.90 -32.5% Final Season
23 (23) Motherland Fort Salem (O) Freeform 0.11 0.18 -37.5% Renewal Possible
24 (24) Roswell New Mexico (O) (F) CW 0.15 0.26 -43.0% Renewed
25 (25) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.08 0.15 -45.1% Renewed
26 (26) Nancy Drew (O) CW 0.14 0.26 -46.4% Renewed
27 (28) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.12 0.25 -53.8% Final Season
28 (27) Vagrant Queen (F) Syfy 0.07 0.15 -55.6% Cancellation Likely
29 (29) Avenue 5 HBO 0.11 0.30 -63.3% Renewed
30 (30) His Dark Materials HBO 0.10 0.30 -67.5% Renewed
31 (31) Dispatches from Elsewhere (O) AMC 0.09 0.30 -69.0% On the Bubble
32 (32) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.02 0.10 -76.5% Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Author: johnnyjay

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