Cancellation Watch Scorecard: The Walking Dead Remains at the Top of the Rankings

The Walking Dead returned from its Winter hiatus this past Sunday with ratings higher than where it was at the end of Fall and that has it holding steady at the top of the rankings this week. Not that it was in any danger of slipping, seeing as it is the top-rated genre show currently across all of the linear networks. That one has already been renewed for an eleventh season and I expect at least one more beyond that. Improving this week was Starz’s Outlander which moved up two notches from Number 14 to Number 12. It has already been renewed for a sixth season. The rest of the movement among shows was mostly incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week and the status of all the currently airing shows in our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through February 23rd:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.16 0.40 190.6% Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.61 0.30 103.7% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.48 0.26 80.4% Renewed
4 (4) Primal ADSW 0.30 0.25 20.8% Renewal Possible
5 (5) Batwoman (O) CW 0.30 0.26 13.9% Renewed
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.29 0.26 10.5% Final Season
7 (7) Arrow (O) CW 0.29 0.26 10.1% Final Season
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.26 0.26 -0.7% Renewed
9 (9) Legacies (O) CW 0.25 0.26 -3.6% Renewed
10 (10) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.67 0.74 -9.5% Renewal Possible
11 (11) Riverdale (O) CW 0.23 0.26 -12.4% Renewed
12 (14) Outlander (O) Starz 0.13 0.15 -16.7% Renewal Possible
13 (12) Watchmen (O) HBO 0.25 0.30 -17.0% Renewal Possible
14 (13) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.22 0.26 -17.7% Renewed
15 (15) Manifest (O) NBC 0.69 0.90 -23.8% Renewal Possible
16 (16) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.11 0.15 -24.4% On the Bubble
17 (17) Evil (O) CBS 0.52 0.74 -29.0% Renewed
18 (18) Charmed (O) (F) CW 0.18 0.26 -29.9% Renewed
19 (19) Emergence (O) ABC 0.48 0.72 -32.4% Cancellation Likely
20 (20) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.61 0.90 -32.5% Final Season
21 (21) Nancy Drew (O) CW 0.15 0.26 -41.6% Renewed
22 (22) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.08 0.15 -45.1% Renewed
23 (23) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.12 0.25 -53.8% Final Season
24 (24) Avenue 5 HBO 0.11 0.30 -63.3% Renewed
25 (25) His Dark Materials HBO 0.10 0.30 -67.5% Renewed
26 (26) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.02 0.10 -76.5% Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Author: johnnyjay

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