Before moving on to the rankings, I just want to make a final toast to the dearly departed Cancellation Bear. TV by the Numbers has shut down and the Bear will be delivering no more predictions on the fate of television shows (he has actually been silent since November). We loved (and hated) him while he was active and he was quite accurate with his predictions. But the realities of trying to survive as a news site on the internet these days ultimately took their toll and the Cancellation Bear has been laid to rest. The Cancellation Watch Scorecard will continue to rank the broadcast network and cable channel sci fi and fantasy shows based on their performance vs. network benchmarks (see metric definition below). And the TV Grim Reaper (who was originally the Bear before TV by the Numbers was bought out in 2014) provides predictions for all of the broadcast net shows.
As for this week’s rankings, NBC’s Manifest slipped one slot to Number 13 as its ratings have been on the decline (though it rebounded with its latest episode). And HBO’s sci fi comedy Avenue 5 continues to see its viewership dwindle resulting in it slipping further down the rankings to the Number 22 slot. The rest of the movement among shows was mostly incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week and the status of all the currently airing shows in our latest Weekly Roundup post.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through February 2nd:
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 1.16 | 0.40 | 189.4% | Renewed |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 0.61 | 0.30 | 103.7% | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.50 | 0.25 | 100.9% | Renewed |
| 4 (4) | Batwoman (O) | CW | 0.32 | 0.25 | 27.8% | Renewed |
| 5 (5) | Primal | ADSW | 0.30 | 0.25 | 20.8% | Renewal Possible |
| 6 (7) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.29 | 0.25 | 16.9% | Final Season |
| 7 (6) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.29 | 0.25 | 16.5% | Final Season |
| 8 (8) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.27 | 0.25 | 9.6% | Renewed |
| 9 (9) | Legacies (O) | CW | 0.26 | 0.25 | 5.9% | Renewed |
| 10 (11) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.24 | 0.25 | -5.0% | Renewed |
| 11 (13) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.22 | 0.25 | -11.6% | Renewed |
| 12 (13) | Watchmen (O) | HBO | 0.25 | 0.30 | -17.0% | Renewal Possible |
| 13 (12) | Manifest (O) | NBC | 0.73 | 0.89 | -18.6% | Renewal Possible |
| 14 (14) | The Magicians (O) | Syfy | 0.12 | 0.15 | -22.2% | On the Bubble |
| 15 (15) | Charmed (O) (F) | CW | 0.18 | 0.25 | -26.9% | Renewed |
| 16 (16) | Evil (O) | CBS | 0.52 | 0.74 | -28.8% | Renewed |
| 17 (17) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 0.61 | 0.89 | -31.8% | Final Season |
| 18 (18) | Emergence (O) | ABC | 0.48 | 0.74 | -34.9% | On the Bubble |
| 19 (19) | Nancy Drew (O) | CW | 0.16 | 0.25 | -36.4% | Renewed |
| 20 (20) | Van Helsing (F) | Syfy | 0.08 | 0.15 | -45.1% | Renewed |
| 21 (22) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.12 | 0.25 | -53.8% | Final Season |
| 22 (21) | Avenue 5 | HBO | 0.12 | 0.30 | -58.9% | Renewal Possible |
| 23 (23) | His Dark Materials | HBO | 0.10 | 0.30 | -67.5% | Renewed |
| 24 (24) | Star Wars Resistance (O) | Disney | 0.02 | 0.10 | -76.5% | Final Season |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
