Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Avenue 5 Enters Low in the Rankings, The Magicians Slips

HBO’s new sci fi comedy Avenue 5 did not receive much in the way of advance promotion (and its title hardly suggests that it might be of interest to genre fans) so it has struggled to find an audience so far. That has it entering fairly low in the Scorecard at the Number 21 slot (out of 25), and the future for this one looks doubtful at this point. Slipping in the rankings this week is Syfy’s The Magicians which dropped four slots from Number 10 to Number 14. That show’s ratings are down notably this season and it is facing the five-season wall at Syfy, so it also faces an uncertain future. The rest of the movement among shows was mostly incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week and the status of all the currently airing shows in our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through January 26th:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.16 0.40 189.4% Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.61 0.30 103.7% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.50 0.25 97.5% Renewed
4 (4) Batwoman (O) CW 0.32 0.25 25.7% Renewed
5 (5) Primal ADSW 0.30 0.25 20.8% Renewal Possible
7 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.29 0.25 14.5% Final Season
6 (7) Arrow (O) CW 0.30 0.25 18.5% Final Season
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.27 0.25 7.7% Renewed
9 (9) Legacies (O) CW 0.26 0.25 2.7% Renewed
14 (10) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.12 0.15 -20.0% Renewal Possible
10 (11) Riverdale (O) CW 0.24 0.25 -5.2% Renewed
12 (12) Manifest (O) NBC 0.77 0.90 -14.4% Renewal Possible
11 (13) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.22 0.25 -12.2% Renewed
13 (14) Watchmen (O) HBO 0.25 0.30 -17.0% Renewal Possible
15 (15) Charmed (O) (F) CW 0.19 0.25 -25.0% Renewed
16 (16) Evil (O) CBS 0.53 0.73 -28.6% Renewed
18 (17) Emergence (O) ABC 0.49 0.74 -33.5% On the Bubble
19 (18) Nancy Drew (O) CW 0.16 0.25 -35.4% Renewed
17 (19) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.60 0.90 -33.0% Final Season
20 (20) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.08 0.15 -45.1% Renewed
21 (n/a) Avenue 5 HBO 0.15 0.30 -51.7% Renewal Possible
22 (21) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.12 0.25 -53.8% Final Season
23 (22) His Dark Materials HBO 0.10 0.30 -67.5% Renewed
24 (23) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.02 0.10 -76.3% Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Author: johnnyjay

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.