I have compiled the first Scorecard for Mid-Season and the rankings have shifted somewhat. During the second half of the television year, the broadcast network execs will be looking closely at the latest ratings results with much less attention to the Fall numbers (that’s too far beyond their attention spans). Also, the ratings tend to slack off after the Winter break. So for the broadcast network shows, I will be comparing the ratings numbers from January forward vs. the network averages for the same time frame. Those shows that have not returned from hiatus will keep their Fall averages until they start airing new episodes. This does not result in too many major shifts from the final Fall Scorecard, but there are a few shows with some noteworthy movement.
Both Lucifer and The Gifted get dinged for FOX’s ill-advised scheduling of New Year’s Day episodes, but it doesn’t hurt the latter show because it has already been renewed. And Lucifer has the rest of the season to improve its rankings. The Last Man on Earth and Ghosted got bumps due to some football playoff inflated airings, but I expect them to adjust down in coming weeks. Both Gotham and The Orville dropped some because FOX is actually doing better in Spring so far, so the Fall averages for those shows do not look as good in comparison. The drop that Happy! has seen from its Fall ranking (not related to the methodology shift) has to do with the fact that the subsequent weeks after its strong debut have adjusted its average down. But it is still looking very good for a Syfy show.
Entering the Scorecard strong at Mid-Season are Black Lighting (Number 4) and The Magicians (Number 6). Both of those are likely renewal candidates at this point. Entering in the lower rungs are Counterpart (Number 33) and Beyond (Number 36). The former series had a second season pre-ordered, so apparently it is safe for now. Beyond starts On the Bubble and could move to Cancellation Likely pretty quickly.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through January 28th (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 3.79 | 0.50 | 657.8% | 5.92 | Renewed |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.10 | 0.50 | 120.7% | 2.47 | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.75 | 0.44 | 72.4% | 1.64 | Renewal Likely |
| 4 (n/a) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.70 | 0.44 | 60.9% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 5 (5) | Outlander | Starz | 0.32 | 0.20 | 59.6% | 0.60 | Renewed |
| 6 (n/a) | The Magicians (O) | Syfy | 0.27 | 0.17 | 58.8% | n/a | Renewal Likely |
| 7 (6) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.60 | 0.44 | 37.9% | 0.98 | Renewal Likely |
| 8 (11) | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.60 | 1.17 | 36.2% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 9 (9) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.57 | 0.44 | 30.3% | 1.01 | Renewal Likely |
| 10 (8) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.56 | 0.44 | 27.7% | 1.03 | Renewal Likely |
| 11 (4) | Happy (O) | Syfy | 0.21 | 0.17 | 26.1% | 0.70 | Renewed |
| 12 (7) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.50 | 0.44 | 14.9% | 1.13 | Renewal Likely |
| 13 (10) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.45 | 0.44 | 3.4% | 1.01 | Renewal Likely |
| 14 (13) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.5% | 0.37 | Renewed |
| 15 (19) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 1.15 | 1.17 | -2.1% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 16 (n/a) | The X-Files (O) | FOX | 1.10 | 1.17 | -6.3% | n/a | Final Season |
| 17 (17) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.03 | 1.18 | -12.9% | 1.98 | Renewed |
| 18 (14) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.00 | 1.17 | -14.8% | 2.15 | Renewed |
| 19 (18) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.14 | 0.17 | -18.6% | n/a | Renewed |
| 20 (23) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.97 | 1.19 | -18.8% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 21 (20) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.06 | 0.08 | -21.9% | n/a | Renewed |
| 22 (16) | Gotham | FOX | 0.89 | 1.17 | -24.1% | 1.54 | Renewal Possible |
| 23 (24) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -25.8% | 0.30 | Renewed |
| 24 (12) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 0.85 | 1.17 | -27.6% | 2.08 | Renewed |
| 25 (22) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.22 | 0.30 | -28.0% | 0.44 | Renewed |
| 26 (21) | The Librarians | TNT | 0.29 | 0.40 | -28.6% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 27 (15) | Lucifer | FOX | 0.80 | 1.17 | -31.9% | 1.45 | Renewal Possible |
| 28 (25) | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.63 | 1.16 | -45.3% | 1.00 | Cancellation Likely |
| 29 (27) | Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) | ABC | 0.63 | 1.16 | -46.0% | 1.25 | Renewal Possible |
| 30 (29) | Superstition | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -48.5% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 31 (26) | The Inhumans (O) (F) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.16 | -49.4% | 1.13 | Cancellation Likely |
| 32 (30) | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.8% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 33 (n/a) | Counterpart | Starz | 0.10 | 0.20 | -50.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 34 (28) | Once Upon A Time (O) (F) | ABC | 0.54 | 1.16 | -52.9% | 1.09 | Renewal Possible |
| 35 (31) | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.3% | 0.30 | Cancelled |
| 36 (n/a) | Beyond | Freeform | 0.09 | 0.20 | -57.5% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 37 (32) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.42 | 1.17 | -64.2% | 0.60 | On the Bubble |
| 38 (33) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
