Cancellation Watch: Emerald City Slips Again, More Hiatuses Coming, Plus the Scorecard

By | January 24, 2017

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings Results of Interest: On Friday, NBC’s Emerald City slipped yet again, this time to a 0.7 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 2.8 million total viewers. That now has it as one of the network’s lowest rated scripted shows and almost certainly in poor standings. This one may play well internationally, and it’s possible that the network has a deal in place for the show’s distribution overseas. But that sort of arrangement rarely helps broadcast network shows, so I believe its chances of a second season are diminishing each week. Over on FOX, Sleepy Hollow hit a new low by falling to a 0.5 rating with 1.9 million total viewers. That network does claim that the show plays well overseas and gave that as a reason for bringing it back for a fourth season. But with eyesore linear viewing numbers like this, I’m thinking a fifth season renewal is a longshot at best.  On Sunday, TNT’s The Librarians had a 0.5 rating with right at two million total viewers for its Season 3 finale and also made it into the Daily Nielsen Social Content Top 5 for the night. I expect to hear word on a fourth year renewal for that one at any time now.

Hiatus Hell: Several shows that returned in January are getting ready to go back on hiatus, much to the dismay of their regular viewers. Disney XD’s Star Wars: Rebels aired four new episodes this month and now takes a break until February 18th, which is only about a month gap between new episodes. Much worse, and much more puzzling, is FOX’s scheduling for Gotham and Lucifer. Both of those shows returned on January 16th but after next week will go on an extended hiatus until late in the season (April 24th for Gotham and May 1st for Lucifer). That means that when they come back, they will both have seven episodes left in their seasons which will have them running into June. That definitely seems like an odd scheduling move, especially since both of those are just pulling middling ratings this season and the long break will do nothing to help their numbers. Perhaps FOX has already decided to renew both (I have them trending in that direction) and just wants to get some other programming on the schedule over the next few months. But pulling a show off the air for almost three months is definitely frustrating the regular fans and will do nothing to bring on new viewers (thanks to BleedingCool.com for the heads up on these scheduling moves). And for those watching MacGyver on CBS, that network is up to its usual hi-jinks for this time of year as it airs a few new episodes interspersed with repeats and preemptions. The next new episode of that show airs February 3rd, and it will almost certainly have no more than three new episodes in a row through the end of the its first season.  Also, The CW shows tend to go on a second hiatus around March, though that network did back-load its schedule this season, so maybe the breaks will not be that long this time around.

Scorecard: Freeform’s Beyond slipped again in the Scorecard as its linear viewing numbers continue to drop. But that one is safe for now because the network has already renewed it for a second season.  Son of Zorn slipped after its low-rated episode this past Sunday that aired in the midst of an otherwise all-repeat night. Aftermath has apparently been cancelled by Syfy which comes as a surprise seeing that its numbers are even with renewed Van Helsing. I covered that in more detail at this link. I still have Emerald City On the Bubble at this point, but that will almost certainly change to Cancellation Likely if it has another low-rated week.  The rest of the entries on the Scorecard remained mostly stable for the week with just some incidental movement.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through January 22nd (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead AMC 5.71 0.60 851.5% 8.43 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 1.16 0.53 116.7% 2.03 Renewed
4 (4) Supergirl (O) CW 0.85 0.53 59.4% 1.45 Renewed
5 (5) Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.15 0.10 50.0% 0.30 Renewal Likely
6 (6) Arrow (O) CW 0.74 0.53 39.6% 1.31 Renewed
7 (7) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
8 (9) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.70 0.53 31.3% 1.20 Renewed
9 (8) Shadowhunters Free 0.33 0.25 30.7% n/a Renewal Likely
10 (11) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
11 (10) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.39 1.13 22.6% n/a Renewal Possible
12 (12) Supernatural (O) CW 0.65 0.53 21.9% 1.18 Renewed
13 (13) Gotham FOX 1.13 1.13 -0.1% 1.90 Renewal Likely
14 (15) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
15 (14) Colony USA 0.29 0.30 -5.0% n/a Renewal Possible
16 (16) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewal Likely
17 (17) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
18 (18) Lucifer FOX 1.06 1.13 -6.3% 1.83 Renewal Possible
19 (20) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.98 1.13 -13.8% 1.53 Renewal Possible
20 (21) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.05 1.27 -17.0% 1.67 Renewal Possible
21 (22) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.14 1.39 -17.9% 1.80 Renewal Possible
22 (23) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
23 (24) Timeless NBC 1.25 1.55 -19.2% 2.29 On the Bubble
24 (26) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.55 -19.5% 1.98 Renewal Possible
25 (19) Beyond Free 0.20 0.25 -20.0% n/a Renewed
26 (25) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
27 (27) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
28 (28) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
29 (29) Incorporated Syfy 0.15 0.20 -24.4% 0.37 Renewal Possible
30 (30) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.8% 0.43 Final Season
31 (31) The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
32 (32) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.37 0.53 -31.3% 0.74 Final Season
33 (33) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.81 1.27 -36.0% 1.74 Cancellation Likely
34 (34) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 1.13 -41.0% 1.09 Cancellation Likely
35 (38) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 1.13 -46.2% 0.96 Cancellation Likely
36 (35) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.83 1.55 -46.3% n/a On the Bubble
36 (37) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.83 1.55 -46.3% n/a Final Season
38 (36) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.1% n/a Cancelled
39 (39) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.53 -48.4% 0.51 Cancellation Likely
40 (40) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 On the Bubble
41 (41) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) NBC 0.57 1.55 -63.5% n/a On the Bubble
42 (42) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

One thought on “Cancellation Watch: Emerald City Slips Again, More Hiatuses Coming, Plus the Scorecard

  1. Heiner

    Emerald City is airing in Latin America and some parts of Europe which I think will keep it alive.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *