Cancellation Watch: iZombie, Powers, and Orphan Black Get Renewed, More Announcements on the Way

By | May 7, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Monday May 4th thru Wednesday May 6th (analysis and metric definitions below):

Note: The Monday broadcast network shows were covered in the previous Cancellation Watch post

The Returned A&E Mon 5/4 10 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.9 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.8 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Still flying low and still banking on its international financing to keep it alive.

The Flash CW Tue 5/5 8 PM
Rating: 1.4 | % Chng PW: -6.7% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.6 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It slipped a little bit but continues to perform above expectations for the fifth place network.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 5/5 9 PM
Rating: 1.5 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.5 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

No improvement for this show as it stays only one tick ahead of The CW’s The Flash.  If Disney does insist that ABC keep this show on for another season (along with its spin-off), I’m thinking the network execs will not be thrilled with the idea.

iZombie CW Tue 5/5 9 PM
Rating: 0.6 | % Chng PW: -14.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.6 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It slipped a bit, but is still doing well for its network and received the expected second season renewal announcement.  More on that below.

Forever ABC Tue 5/5 10 PM
Rating: 1.1 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.1 | StD Rating: 1.1 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

It improved for its season finale, but that is certainly too little too late.  Expect this one to be sent to the Network Executioner at any time over the next few days.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 5/5 10 PM
Rating: 1.1 | % Chng PW: -21.4% | Tot Viewers (MM): 8.2 | StD Rating: 1.5 | Target: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Wow!  That was a huge drop for its season finale!  It’s been looking like a lock for a fifth year renewal, but could CBS have a last minute change of heart?  Unlikely, but it may be heading into its last season.

Arrow CW Wed 5/6 8 PM
Rating: 0.9 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.4 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It held steady with last week and will likely improve some as it heads to its season finale.

Supernatural CW Wed 5/6 9 PM
Rating: 0.7 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.6 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It’s holding at better numbers as it heads to its season finale, but I still have to wonder how much more gas this one has in the tank.

izombie-cw-cancelledRenewal Announcements:  Yesterday word broke on renewals for The CW’s iZombie as well as Play Station Network’s Powers and today BBC America announced Orphan Black will be back for a fourth season.  Those first two are in their rookie seasons and the renewal announcements come as no surprise.  iZombie has been one of The CW’s better performing shows since it debuted in March and I’m assuming it is not an expensive one to produce.  It has been tracking toward renewal, so the announcement was expected.  I haven’t seen any viewership numbers forf Play Station Network’s first scripted show Powers, but the buzz has been good for it, and the trend seams to be for streaming entries to receive a second season.  All of Netflix’s originals have earned a second season nod and I believe the same is true with the Amazon shows.  Orphan Black has been a decent performer for BBC America (and up in its home country of Canada) and has received wide acclaim, so the renewal for that one comes as no surprise either.

There was also an interesting cancellation announcement for a non-genre show when FOX released the news that The Mindy Project would not be coming back for a fourth season.  The important thing to note with that is the fact that it is a third season show and the assumption had been that a fourth year was guaranteed because that would get it to a syndication friendly episode count.  Prior to this cancellation, all broadcast network shows from 2007 forward that had achieved an episode count of around 66 by the end of their third year received a fourth season nod no matter how bad their ratings.  That has to do with the profits a show can make in syndication which justifies taking a loss if the original run ratings are low.  This one instance does not indicate that trend is no longer valid and apparently the show’s studio is working on a deal with Hulu to keep it going for two more seasons.  That will get the show to the threshold it needs for a syndication run, but FOX won’t benefit as much since they bowed out after the third year.  However, it will be interesting to keep an eye on third season shows next year to see if the networks are wavering on sticking with them if the numbers are too low.  The only broadcast network genre entry that will have that status next season will be The CW’s The Originals and it seems like a lock for a fourth season (unless its network decides to just tack its three seasons onto the Vampire Diaries syndication package).  But what about third year shows Sleepy Hollow and The 100, you ask?  More on those at this link.

The next few days should be quite busy as the networks make their final decisions prior to unveiling their 2015-16 slates at the upfronts next week.  Keep a close eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site and Facebook Page for breaking announcements, and I will be doing a round up of all the news on this site on Sunday or Monday (or possibly Friday if enough announcements occur today).

You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page and also the latest Sci Fi TV Power Rankings post. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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