Cancellation Watch: Can William Shatner Save Haven?

By | November 26, 2014


Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy airing Friday Nov 21st thru Tuesday Nov 25th (analysis and metric definitions below):

Haven Syfy Fri 11/21 7 PM
Rating: 0.2 | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.8 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

The numbers for this show remain low, but their is hope on the horizon.  More on that below.

Grimm NBC Fri 11/21 9 PM
Rating: 1.3 | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.4 | StD Rating: 1.3 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It improved slightly from last week and is still doing well enough for a fourth season series on Friday nights.

Constantine NBC Fri 11/21 10 PM
Rating: 1.1 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.5 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: High

The announcement about halting production certainly seems dire for this show.  It has to make a ratings surge with its remaining episodes if it wants to see any chance at a second season.

Z Nation Syfy Fri 11/21 10 PM
Rating: 0.6 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.4 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This one improved to its best numbers yet.  Could it be building up to a bigger following?

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 11/23 8 PM
Rating: Preempted | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 2.8 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Preempted for the holiday week but returns next week with a new episode.

Resurrection ABC Sun 11/23 9 PM
Rating: Preempted | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Preempted for the holiday week but returns next week with a new episode.  Though this two week break it has been on will likely do nothing to help its ratings slump.

The Walking Dead AMC Sun 11/23 9 PM
Rating: 7.0 | Tot Viewers (MM): 13.3 | StD Rating: 7.5 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It’s down from last week but still cruising along at an all-time high season-to-date average.  This one has become an unstoppable force.

The Originals CW Mon 11/24 8 PM
Rating: 0.6 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.3 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It’s down a tick from last week, but still performing well enough for The CW on Mondays.

Gotham FOX Mon 11/24 8 PM
Rating: 2.3 | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.1 | StD Rating: 2.5 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This one did not improve its numbers any with its Fall finale (which curiously came during low-viewership Thanksgiving week), but it is still FOX’s highest rated, non-animated scripted series.

Sleepy Hollow FOX Mon 11/24 9 PM
Rating: 1.4 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.3 | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It sunk to a new series low, but interestingly enough it is still doing okay based on FOX’s overall struggles.  It would be nice if it could get its numbers up a few ticks, though.

The Flash CW Tue 11/25 8 PM
Rating: 1.4 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.4 | StD Rating: 1.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) It held steady with last week and is still cruising along to a likely second season renewal.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 11/25 9 PM
Rating: Preempted | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.2 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Preempted for the holiday week but returns next week with a new episode.

Supernatural CW Tue 11/25 9 PM
Rating: 0.9 | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.3 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) It slipped a tick from last week, but still doing well be CW standards.  An eleventh season still looks likely.

Forever ABC Tue 11/25 10 PM
Rating: Preempted | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.2 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Preempted for the holiday week but returns next week with a new episode.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 11/25 10 PM
Rating: 1.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 8.9 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) This show improved its numbers again despite the episode airing during a typically low-viewership week.  It looks like the 1.3 score from two weeks ago was just a blip and this one appears to be okay for now.

william-shatner-havenOn the Hot Seat: This past Friday, Syfy’s Haven pulled another meager 0.2 rating in the 18-49 demographic with 0.8 million total viewers (or if you prefer the un-rounded numbers as somebody on Twitter corrected me: a 0.18 rating with 768K total viewers).  With its ratings declines and the fact that its network shifted it to the Friday 7 PM EST timeslot (outside of Prime Time), I have been wondering if the planned second half of that show’s fifth season would go forward.  But Syfy exec Ted A’Zary tweeted a couple of weeks ago that the second batch of Season 5 eps would air at some point in 2015 (the first bit of good news for the show) and just last week an announcement hit that sci fi superstar William Shatner would be jumping onboard the show for an extended story arc.  So despite the abysmal ratings, Syfy has not given up on this show and just they may be pulling out all the stops to breathe some new life into it.  Getting the Shat-man in a recurring role is definitely a coup.  He will bring along plenty of curious onlookers from sci fi fandom (and hopefully they will time it at a good jumping on point for those new to the series), and perhaps this is Syfy’s way of trying to inject some life into the ailing (ratings-wise) show.  They could have just called it a day once the first half of Season 5 had aired based on the show’s ratings slump.  But they didn’t do that and now they are bringing a big-gun onboard the show.  Haven fans should definitely look at this as a good thing, and if the network gives the show a better timeslot next year then it still might have a chance of continuing into a sixth season.  That said, I’m not yet backing away from where I currently have it pegged as Likely to Get Cancelled.  But I do see some hope for the show and support from the network that could help it turn its numbers around in 2015 and change my prediction.

Because of the holidays, the Wednesday and Thursday sci fi / fantasy shows will be preempted this week and this will be the only entry for the Cancellation Watch column.  I will resume the normal twice-per-week posting next week.  Be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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