Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Counterpart Lands at the Bottom of the Rankings

By | January 9, 2019

The Cancellation Watch Scorecard is back from its Winter hiatus as the sci fi and fantasy entries on the schedule start to make their returns as well. Because Starz’s Counterpart got off to a late Fall start, I never worked it into the rankings during the first half of the season. But now that the rankings are back, I have that one included and unfortunately it is in last place. That show has only averaged a 0.03 rating so far in its second season which is well below the benchmark for its network and it could definitely use some support from fans on the social nets. Entering the Scorecard this week are FOX’s two returning shows The Orville and Gotham. The former series enters at the Number 10 slot, but that is heavily skewed by its Sunday premiere ratings that were boosted by football and I expect that one to slip in the coming weeks. Gotham enters at the Number 21 slot and I expect it to hold around there throughout its final season. NBC’s Manifest slipped four slots, but that doesn’t mean it has taken a dive in the ratings. At the end of Fall it was performing slightly better compared to the network average vs. the four CW shows below it and it slipped just enough to fall below them going into the beginning of the year. But all indications are that one is on course for a second season renewal. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental. For the ratings coverage from this past week, be sure to check out our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through January 6th:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 2.03 0.50 305.0% Renewal Likely
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.96 0.50 91.8% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.68 0.36 89.1% Renewal Likely
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.41 0.30 36.0% Renewed
5 (6) Riverdale (O) CW 0.43 0.36 19.1% Renewal Likely
6 (7) Arrow (O) CW 0.42 0.36 18.3% Renewal Likely
6 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.42 0.36 18.3% Renewal Likely
8 (9) Supernatural (O) CW 0.42 0.36 18.3% Renewal Possible
9 (5) Manifest (O) NBC 1.41 1.20 17.6% Renewal Possible
10 (n/a) The Orville (O) FOX 1.05 1.06 -0.7% Renewal Possible
11 (10) God Friended Me (O) CBS 0.96 0.99 -3.0% Renewal Possible
12 (11) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.33 0.36 -6.6% Renewal Possible
13 (12) Legacies (O) CW 0.33 0.36 -7.9% Renewal Possible
14 (13) Charmed (O) CW 0.32 0.36 -9.7% Renewal Possible
15 (14) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.31 0.36 -12.4% Renewal Possible
16 (15) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -17.0% Renewal Possible
17 (16) Outlander (O) Starz 0.15 0.20 -23.5% Renewed
18 (17) Z Nation (F) Syfy 0.13 0.17 -23.5% Cancelled
19 (18) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.71 0.99 -28.2% Renewal Possible
20 (19) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.83 1.20 -30.5% Renewed
21 (n/a) Gotham (O) FOX 0.70 1.06 -33.8% Final Season
23 (21) Nightflyers Syfy 0.11 0.17 -36.9% On the Bubble
22 (20) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.67 1.06 -36.7% On the Bubble
24 (22) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.09 0.17 -45.7% Renewed
25 (23) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.04 0.08 -46.9% Renewal Possible
26 (24) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.07 0.17 -57.8% Cancellation Likely
27 (26) Mars NGC 0.06 0.16 -65.6% Renewal Possible
28 (25) Midnight Texas (O) (F) NBC 0.41 1.20 -65.7% Cancelled
29 (29) Counterpart Starz 0.03 0.20 -84.0% On the Bubble

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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