Over the past few weeks, some major cast announcements have come from The Walking Dead and Fear the Walking Dead with main characters in the process of departing the shows (I address the specifics below with some spoiler warnings). Both shows have seen their viewership decline the last few years (though FtWD actually saw improvements at the beginning of its fourth season), and there are clear signs that the rot is starting to set in for the franchise. So with an eroding audience and actors leaving, how many more years do these shows have ahead of them?
SPOILER WARNING for the next paragraph in which I address the cast departures. Skip if you wish to avoid.
The Walking Dead already had a major death this past since when Carl (played by Chandler Riggs) succumbed to a zombie bite. And Laura Cohen moved to the short-timer list when the pilot for Whiskey Cavalier, in which she co-stars, was picked up by ABC. Then, just a couple of weeks ago, word broke that series lead Andrew Lincoln will be “phased out” of the show with co-star Norman Reedus getting moved to the lead role with a new $20 million deal. Both Cohen and Lincoln will appear in a reduced number of episodes in the coming season, though there has been no confirmation on whether their characters will be killed off. As for Fear the Walking Dead, Madison Clark (played by Kim Dickens) met her end on the mid-season finale, meaning that almost all of the original cast has left that show.
It is not uncommon to have cast departures from a series as it gets on in the years as we saw just recently with Once Upon A Time and several years back with Stargate: SG-1. The changes can shake things up and bring in some fresh new ideas and characters, but the fact is that it typically signals that a show is in its waning years. Once Upon A Time only had one season with the cast shuffle, and SG-1 only lasted two years after its major departures.
The Walking Dead still has plenty of source material to draw from, but it will have to make some major changes to accommodate the departures. Of course, that show has never been shy to stray from the storylines of the comics, so that should not be too much of a problem. As for Fear the Walking Dead, that one is essentially going through a reboot this season and its future will be closely tied to how the audience accepts (or rejects) the changes.
Previously, I thought that The Walking Dead would stick around for at least twelve seasons, but that was assuming that the core cast would remain mostly intact. The changes could revitalize the show, or they could take the wind out of its sails. We will have to see how the audience reacts when the show returns for its ninth season. I’m still thinking that one has at least two more years in it, but short of a ratings revival, I believe that twelve seasons is now the ceiling for that show. As for Fear the Walking Dead, I believe it has at least one more season in it, but if the ratings tank when it returns from its break, that may not be the case. A fourth season cancellation is possible, but I wouldn’t count it as a Bubble show just yet. More likely it gets the fifth season nod, and possibly a sixth as well to get it to a syndication friendly count of episodes. But I have a hard time seeing that one sticking around beyond a sixth year.
My personal suggestion for the franchise is that they wrap up Fear the Walking Dead next year and replace it with an anthology series that can further explore the world of TWD. It could have standalone stories (perhaps some from well-known horror and sci fi writers) not connected to the main shows, as well as episodes (possibly multi-ep arcs) that delve into the backstory of characters or groups we already know. Wouldn’t it be interesting to go back and see how Negan managed to start up his Saviors or look at the beginnings of Woodbury? I’d also love to go back and see the early days of characters like Tyreese and Sasha or Abraham and Eugene. I think they could get a lot of mileage from this premise and it could bring back a lot of the viewers that have abandoned the franchise.
In any case, The Walking Dead still has at least a couple of years more to go. Even if the ratings for that one completely tank, it can run on fumes for a few years because of its lucrative syndication and streaming deals. As for Fear the Walking Dead, I would not say that a cancellation is out of the question this season. It’s unlikely, though, and I’m betting it has at least one more year to go. But I would say that both are in their waning years and could be gone from the schedule by the early 2020’s. But that anthology idea could keep the franchise viable a few more years, and AMC should give it serious consideration.
I will say again, boy, do I really like your writing and your thinking. 😀 Here’s a challenge: has any show substantially survived once the main character(s) have left? Two that come to mind for me are the X-Files, and Northern Exposure, and we both know what the answers are for those two. In the email I got for this posting, there was an ad for Babylon 5 (for streaming on Amazon Prime). That’s a rare one that did, and I think it got even better.
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Keep up the good work!