FOX’s The Last Man on Earth returned from hiatus this past Sunday tied its series low ratings, causing it to slip three slots in the rankings to the Number 14. That show is still in the upper third of the Scorecard, but FOX Chairman Gary Newman has said that one is On the Bubble this year. ABC’s Agents of SHIELD also slipped on the Scorecard this week, dropping from Number 31 to Number 35. Its slide has more to do with ABC performing better on average so far this Spring, especially with the new American Idol having just debuted. That puts the already low-rated AoS further from the mean. Once Upon A Time appears to have benefited from this, but in truth it was positively impacted by shows above it moving down. Another drop of note this week comes from the TBS animated series Final Space which slipped two slots (from Number 16 to Number 18) as its ratings have been sliding the last two weeks. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental and you can see the full rankings below.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through March 18th (metric definitions below):
| Rank (PW) | Series | Net | Std Avg | Net Bench | % Var | Live+7 Avg Rtg | Status |
| 1 (1) | The Walking Dead (O) | AMC | 3.54 | 0.50 | 607.3% | 5.73 | Renewed |
| 2 (2) | American Horror Story (O) | FX | 1.10 | 0.50 | 120.7% | 2.47 | Renewed |
| 3 (3) | The Flash (O) | CW | 0.76 | 0.43 | 78.2% | 1.63 | Renewal Likely |
| 4 (4) | Outlander | Starz | 0.32 | 0.20 | 59.6% | 0.60 | Renewed |
| 5 (5) | The Magicians (O) | Syfy | 0.26 | 0.17 | 52.9% | 0.60 | Renewal Likely |
| 6 (6) | Ghosted (O) | FOX | 1.60 | 1.05 | 52.5% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 7 (7) | Black Lightning (O) | CW | 0.60 | 0.43 | 41.2% | 1.00 | Renewal Possible |
| 8 (8) | Supernatural (O) | CW | 0.58 | 0.43 | 37.3% | 0.98 | Renewal Likely |
| 9 (9) | Supergirl (O) | CW | 0.58 | 0.43 | 35.3% | 1.01 | Renewal Likely |
| 10 (10) | Happy (O) | Syfy | 0.21 | 0.17 | 24.3% | 0.55 | Renewed |
| 11 (11) | Riverdale (O) | CW | 0.48 | 0.43 | 13.7% | 1.13 | Renewal Likely |
| 12 (13) | Z Nation | Syfy | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.5% | 0.37 | Renewed |
| 13 (14) | Legends of Tomorrow (O) | CW | 0.42 | 0.43 | -1.2% | 1.03 | Renewal Likely |
| 14 (15) | Arrow (O) | CW | 0.42 | 0.43 | -2.0% | 0.99 | Renewal Likely |
| 15 (12) | The Last Man on Earth (O) | FOX | 1.00 | 1.05 | -4.7% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 15 (17) | The Orville (O) | FOX | 1.00 | 1.05 | -4.7% | 2.15 | Renewed |
| 17 (18) | The X-Files (O) | FOX | 0.96 | 1.05 | -8.9% | n/a | Final Season |
| 18 (16) | Final Space (O) | TBS | 0.26 | 0.30 | -12.2% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 19 (19) | The Good Place (O) | NBC | 1.04 | 1.23 | -15.3% | 1.95 | Renewed |
| 20 (21) | The Gifted (O) | FOX | 0.85 | 1.05 | -19.0% | 2.08 | Renewed |
| 21 (20) | MacGyver (O) (F) | CBS | 0.92 | 1.15 | -20.0% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 22 (22) | Stan Against Evil | IFC | 0.06 | 0.08 | -21.9% | n/a | Renewed |
| 23 (23) | Lucifer | FOX | 0.80 | 1.05 | -23.8% | 1.17 | Renewal Possible |
| 24 (24) | Van Helsing | Syfy | 0.13 | 0.17 | -25.8% | 0.30 | Renewed |
| 25 (25) | The Librarians | TNT | 0.29 | 0.40 | -27.5% | 0.60 | Cancelled |
| 26 (26) | Mr Robot (O) | USA | 0.22 | 0.30 | -28.0% | 0.44 | Renewed |
| 27 (27) | Gotham | FOX | 0.70 | 1.05 | -33.3% | 1.54 | Renewal Possible |
| 28 (29) | iZombie (O) | CW | 0.27 | 0.43 | -37.3% | n/a | Renewed |
| 29 (28) | Timeless (O) | NBC | 0.75 | 1.23 | -38.9% | n/a | Renewal Possible |
| 30 (30) | Superstition | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -48.5% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 31 (34) | Channel Zero (O) | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.0% | n/a | Renewed |
| 32 (32) | The Inhumans (O) (F) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.16 | -49.5% | 1.13 | Cancellation Likely |
| 32 (33) | Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) | ABC | 0.59 | 1.16 | -49.5% | 1.00 | Cancellation Likely |
| 34 (35) | Ghost Wars | Syfy | 0.09 | 0.17 | -49.8% | n/a | Cancellation Likely |
| 35 (31) | Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) | ABC | 0.58 | 1.16 | -50.4% | 1.33 | On the Bubble |
| 36 (36) | Counterpart | Starz | 0.09 | 0.20 | -53.3% | n/a | Renewed |
| 37 (37) | The Shannara Chronicles (O) | Spike | 0.09 | 0.20 | -54.3% | 0.30 | Cancelled |
| 38 (38) | Beyond | Freeform | 0.09 | 0.20 | -56.9% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 39 (40) | Once Upon A Time (O) (F) | ABC | 0.47 | 1.16 | -59.7% | 1.07 | Cancelled |
| 40 (41) | The Exorcist (O) (F) | FOX | 0.42 | 1.05 | -60.0% | 0.60 | Cancellation Likely |
| 41 (39) | Ash vs Evil Dead | Starz | 0.08 | 0.20 | -62.5% | n/a | On the Bubble |
| 42 (42) | Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency | BBCA | 0.07 | 0.30 | -76.7% | n/a | Cancelled |
Metric Definitions:
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts. For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)
Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers
