Cancellation Watch Scorecard: The Librarians Enters in the Lower Half, Happy! Drops

By | December 19, 2017

TNT’s The Librarians had its Season 4 debut last week which was down from its prior year and it starts off in the Scorecard in the Number 21 slot. I still expect TNT to give that one at least one more season beyond its current one, though. Syfy’s Happy! dropped notably with its second episode last week and it dropped two slots in the Scorecard to Number 4. Syfy’s Thursday shows also slipped in the ratings last week, and each of them edged down even lower in the rankings, though Van Helsing just got the renewal nod (as did Z Nation).  And BBC America’s Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency just received its walking papers after two years at or near the bottom of the Scorecard.




The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through December 17th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 3.79 0.50 657.8% 6.23 Renewal Likely
2 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.10 0.50 120.7% 2.47 Renewed
3 (4) The Flash (O) CW 0.91 0.47 93.5% 1.67 Renewal Likely
4 (2) Happy (O) Syfy 0.29 0.17 67.6% n/a Renewal Possible
5 (5) Outlander Starz 0.32 0.20 59.6% 0.60 Renewed
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.61 0.47 29.8% 0.95 Renewal Possible
7 (7) Riverdale (O) CW 0.57 0.47 20.3% 1.18 Renewal Possible
8 (8) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.56 0.47 18.0% 0.93 Renewal Possible
9 (9) Supergirl (O) CW 0.54 0.47 15.6% 0.94 Renewal Likely
10 (10) Arrow (O) CW 0.52 0.47 10.9% 0.96 Renewal Possible
11 (11) Ghosted (O) FOX 1.13 1.03 9.2% n/a Renewal Possible
12 (12) The Gifted (O) FOX 1.04 1.03 1.0% 2.17 Renewal Possible
13 (13) Z Nation Syfy 0.17 0.17 0.5% 0.37 Renewed
14 (14) The Orville (O) FOX 1.00 1.03 -2.9% 2.26 Renewed
15 (17) Lucifer FOX 0.92 1.03 -10.7% 1.50 Renewal Possible
16 (15) Gotham FOX 0.89 1.03 -13.5% 1.58 Renewal Possible
17 (16) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.19 1.43 -16.9% 1.98 Renewed
18 (18) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.14 0.17 -18.6% n/a Renewed
19 (19) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.84 1.03 -18.7% n/a Renewal Possible
20 (20) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.06 0.08 -21.9% n/a Renewal Possible
21 (23) The Librarians TNT 0.29 0.40 -27.5% n/a Renewal Possible
22 (21) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.22 0.30 -28.0% 0.46 Renewed
23 (23) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.83 1.16 -28.7% n/a On the Bubble
24 (22) Van Helsing Syfy 0.12 0.17 -30.6% n/a Renewed
25 (24) Kevin Probably Saves the World (O) ABC 0.72 1.09 -33.5% n/a Cancellation Likely
26 (27) The Inhumans (O) (F) ABC 0.59 1.09 -46.1% 1.13 Cancellation Likely
27 (25) Agents of SHIELD (O) (F) ABC 0.57 1.09 -47.9% n/a On the Bubble
28 (29) Once Upon A Time (O) (F) ABC 0.54 1.09 -49.9% 1.13 On the Bubble
29 (26) Superstition Syfy 0.08 0.17 -50.4% n/a Cancellation Likely
30 (28) Ghost Wars Syfy 0.08 0.17 -51.2% n/a Cancellation Likely
31 (30) The Shannara Chronicles (O) Spike 0.09 0.20 -54.3% 0.30 Cancellation Likely
32 (31) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.42 1.03 -59.2% 0.70 On the Bubble
33 (32) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.07 0.30 -76.7% n/a Cancelled

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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