Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Blood Drive Races to Number 15, Dark Matter and Wynonna Earp Improve

By | June 20, 2017

As covered in my Friday This Week In Sci Fi TV column, Syfy’s new Grindhouse series Blood Drive had a decent debut last Wednesday, pulling a 0.24 rating based on the overnights in the 18-49 demographic, and that lands it at the Number 15 slot in the Cancellation Watch Scorecard. If that show’s numbers do not slip too much in the coming weeks, expect it to cruise into a second season. Also, Dark Matter and Wynonna Earp both improved their rankings with the ratings bump in their second week after tepid Summer debuts just the week before (more on that at this link).  The former improved six slots to Number 30 and the latter improved seven slots to Number 50.  Apart from that, the rest of the movement on the Scorecard for the week was just incidental.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through June 18th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 5.39 0.60 798.2% 7.95 Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 1.06 0.50 112.2% 1.88 Renewed
4 (4) Fear the Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.05 0.60 74.4% n/a Renewed
5 (5) The Magicians Syfy 0.31 0.20 54.6% 0.71 Renewed
6 (6) Supergirl (O) CW 0.72 0.50 45.2% 1.28 Renewed
7 (7) Star Wars Rebels (O) DXD 0.14 0.10 44.7% 0.34 Renewed
8 (8) American Gods STARZ 0.28 0.20 38.1% 0.60 Renewed
9 (9) Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
10 (10) Into the Badlands AMC 0.79 0.60 31.5% 1.30 Renewed
11 (11) Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.28 0.98 30.2% n/a Cancelled
12 (12) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.64 0.50 28.8% 1.13 Renewed
13 (13) Arrow (O) CW 0.63 0.50 25.7% 1.12 Renewed
14 (14) Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
15 (n/a) Blood Drive Syfy 0.24 0.20 20.0% n/a Renewal Possible
16 (15) Supernatural (O) CW 0.60 0.50 19.6% 1.07 Renewed
17 (16) Gotham FOX 1.09 0.98 10.7% 1.81 Renewed
18 (17) Shadowhunters Free 0.27 0.25 8.3% 0.50 Renewed
19 (18) Lucifer FOX 1.03 0.98 4.8% 1.78 Renewed
20 (19) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
21 (20) The Librarians TNT 0.47 0.50 -5.2% 0.88 Renewed
22 (21) Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
23 (22) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.91 0.98 -7.0% 1.48 Renewed
24 (23) The Good Place (O) NBC 1.25 1.35 -7.4% 1.91 Renewed
25 (24) Colony USA 0.26 0.30 -12.6% 0.60 Renewed
26 (25) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.08 1.26 -14.9% 1.67 Renewed
27 (26) The Expanse Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.0% 0.39 Renewed
28 (27) Timeless NBC 1.11 1.35 -17.6% 2.07 Renewed
29 (28) People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
30 (29) Incorporated Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% 0.34 Cancelled
30 (36) Dark Matter Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.0% n/a Renewal Possible
32 (30) Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Cancelled
33 (31) Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
34 (32) Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
35 (33) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 0.93 1.21 -23.1% 1.53 Renewed
36 (34) Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.08 0.10 -24.0% n/a On the Bubble
37 (35) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.38 0.50 -24.7% 0.75 Ended
38 (37) Legion (O) FX 0.45 0.60 -25.0% 1.17 Renewed
39 (38) Teen Wolf MTV 0.22 0.30 -25.7% 0.44 Final Season
40 (39) The 100 (O) CW 0.34 0.46 -25.9% 0.64 Renewed
41 (40) Making History (O) NBC 0.67 0.90 -26.2% n/a Cancelled
42 (41) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.32 0.46 -30.6% 0.61 Renewed
43 (42) The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
44 (43) The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 0.98 -31.7% 1.09 Renewed
45 (44) iZombie (O) CW 0.30 0.46 -34.3% 0.66 Renewed
46 (45) Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 0.98 -37.8% 0.96 Cancelled
47 (46) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.74 1.21 -39.3% 1.58 Renewed
48 (47) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.80 1.35 -40.7% 1.43 Ended
49 (48) The Leftovers HBO 0.35 0.60 -42.1% n/a Final Season
50 (57) Wynonna Earp Syfy 0.12 0.20 -42.5% n/a On the Bubble
51 (49) Powerless (O) NBC 0.70 1.22 -42.6% n/a Cancelled
52 (50) Beyond Free 0.14 0.25 -42.7% n/a Renewed
53 (51) Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 0.69 1.22 -43.5% 1.23 Cancelled
54 (52) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.51 0.90 -43.8% 0.94 Cancelled
55 (53) Frequency (O) CW 0.28 0.50 -44.4% 0.51 Cancelled
56 (54) Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -48.0% n/a Cancelled
57 (55) Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 Renewed
58 (56) 12 Monkeys Syfy 0.09 0.20 -53.3% n/a Renewed
59 (58) Time After Time ABC 0.53 1.19 -55.9% 0.70 Cancelled
60 (59) Twin Peaks Show 0.10 0.25 -61.6% n/a Final Season
61 (60) Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed
62 (61) Orphan Black BBCA 0.07 0.40 -83.8% n/a Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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