Cancellation Watch: Scoring My Predictions for the 2016-17 Season So Far

By | May 19, 2017

I already took a look at how the Scorecard has done this year in giving guidance on which shows would be cancelled or renewed (at this link), now it’s time to recap my predictions. I use the Scorecard (which is ratings-based) as a guide for those, but I also factor in other things like information on partnerships/streaming deals, notable trends from a particular network, rumors floating around the entertainment industry, as well as gut feeling at times. For scoring my predictions, I got it right if the show was renewed and it had a final status of Renewal Likely or Renewal Possible or if it was cancelled and it had a final status of Cancellation Likely. I got a push if I had it On the Bubble. And I got it wrong if I thought it was going to be renewed and it was cancelled or vice versa. I divide the rights by the total rights and wrongs (pushes get dropped) for my final percentage of correct predictions (that’s essentially the same way that the Cancellation Bear and the TV Grim Reaper do it).

I am making one exception to that logic above in that I am going to take a hit on Agents of SHIELD. I have said for too long and in too many places that show would get cancelled this season and it ended up getting renewed (which I am happy about because I like the show, but it hurt my average!). I did change its status to On the Bubble a few weeks ago because of rumors floating around that it would get the fifth season nod, and if I counted it as a push it wouldn’t go for or against me. But I am putting it down as a miss and will take the hit to my percentage.

As for the streaming shows, I am not including them here because there is really not much data to gauge them by and I typically default them to Renewal Possible status. If I did include them, though, it would help my average because almost all of the streaming shows have been renewed so far this season (and those that haven’t yet are not cancelled, they are still awaiting word on their fate).

Of the 49 shows from this season that we have heard word on so far, I was right on 38, wrong on 4, and pushed on 7. That gives me a 90.5% average on the season (38 right divided by the 42 with renewal or cancellation predictions and drop the pushes) which is an improvement on the 86% average I had at the same time last year. Considering all the uncertainties and the changes in the television landscape, those are not bad scores for either year.

Of the shows that I said would be renewed, I was correct on 32 out of 34 (94.1%). The two I was wrong about were Syfy’s Aftermath and Incorporated, and I figured that both would get a second season because despite their mediocre ratings because Syfy had typically been giving its shows at least two seasons to prove themselves over the last few years (and also Aftermath has a partnership with the Canadian Space Channel similar to what Dark Matter and Killjoys have). But apparently that network, which has a lot of development in the queue, is changing up its strategy some.

Of the eight that I predicted cancellations for (including Agents of SHIELD), six ended up getting the ax. Cancellations are getting harder to predict because networks are sticking with shows longer than you would expect (which is good for the fans), but I was still right 75% of the time on those. Also, pretty much everybody had written off The Exorcist as a sure cancellation, so you can’t fault me too much on that one (though I am taking the hit).

But these stats should let you know that CancelledSciFi.com will not steer you wrong on predicting the renewal/cancellation status of your favorite sci fi and fantasy shows. I may not get them all right, and its pretty difficult to get a good gauge on the streaming service shows, but much more often than not I am making the right calls on the broadcast net and cable shows. So be sure to stick with us through the Summer and into next season to know how your favorite shows are doing and if you need to be worried about their fate.

Below are all the cancelled and renewed shows from the 2016-17 season (so far) that I made predictions and whether I was right or wrong. These are sorted by cancelled then renewed then show title.

 

Series Network Final Prediction Final Status Result
Aftermath Syfy Renewal Possible Cancelled Wrong
Emerald City NBC Cancellation Likely Cancelled Right
Frequency CW Cancellation Likely Cancelled Right
Incorporated Syfy Renewal Possible Cancelled Wrong
Making History FOX Cancellation Likely Cancelled Right
Powerless NBC Cancellation Likely Cancelled Right
Salem WGN On the Bubble Cancelled Push
Scream Queens FOX Cancellation Likely Cancelled Right
Sleepy Hollow FOX On the Bubble Cancelled Push
Son of Zorn FOX On the Bubble Cancelled Push
Time After Time ABC Cancellation Likely Cancelled Right
The 100 CW Renewal Possible Renewed Right
Agents of SHIELD ABC On the Bubble Renewed Wrong
American Gods Starz Renewal Likely Renewed Right
American Horror Story FX Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Arrow CW Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Ash vs Evil Dead Starz Renewal Possible Renewed Right
Channel Zero Syfy Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Colony USA Renewal Possible Renewed Right
Dirk Gently BBCA On the Bubble Renewed Push
The Exorcist FOX Cancellation Likely Renewed Wrong
The Expanse Syfy Renewal Possible Renewed Right
Falling Water USA On the Bubble Renewed Push
The Flash CW Renewal Likely Renewed Right
The Good Place NBC Renewal Possible Renewed Right
Gotham FOX Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Humans AMC Renewal Possible Renewed Right
Into the Badlands AMC Renewal Possible Renewed Right
iZombie CW Renewal Possible Renewed Right
The Last Man on Earth FOX Renewal Possible Renewed Right
Legends of Tomorrow CW Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Legion FX Renewal Possible Renewed Right
The Librarians TNT Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Lucifer FOX Renewal Possible Renewed Right
MacGyver CBS Renewal Possible Renewed Right
The Magicians Syfy Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Once Upon A Time ABC On the Bubble Renewed Push
The Originals CW Renewal Possible Renewed Right
People of Earth TBS Renewal Possible Renewed Right
Stan Against Evil IFC Renewal Possible Renewed Right
Star Wars Rebels DXD Renewal Possible Renewed Right
Supergirl CW Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Supernatural CW Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Timeless NBC On the Bubble Renewed Push
Van Helsing Syfy Renewal Possible Renewed Right
The Walking Dead AMC Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Westworld HBO Renewal Likely Renewed Right
The X-Files FOX Renewal Likely Renewed Right
Z Nation Syfy Renewal Likely Renewed Right

One thought on “Cancellation Watch: Scoring My Predictions for the 2016-17 Season So Far

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *