Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.
Final Scorecard: This will be the final scorecard before the broadcast networks have their upfront presentations to the advertisers next week and unveil their schedules for the 2017-18 season. Plenty of cancellation and renewal announcements will be preceding those meetings and we have already heard the expected cancellations of NBC’s Emerald City last week and The CW’s Frequency yesterday. Expect more to follow and we should know the status of all this season’s shows at least by the time that the network gives its presentation. Here is the schedule for each of the broadcast nets:
NBC – Monday May 15th (Morning)
FOX – Monday May 15th (Afternoon)
ABC – Tuesday May 16th (Afternoon)
CBS – Wednesday May 18th (Afternoon)
The CW – Thursday May 19th (Morning)
The Turner cable networks will also be presenting next week on Wednesday morning and NBC Universal Cable will present on Thursday afternoon. Of course, we already know the renewal / cancellation status of the majority the broadcast net shows on the schedule with only twelve left awaiting to hear official word. Here are those twelve along with the status I have assigned them heading into the Upfronts:
Agents of SHIELD – On the Bubble
The Exorcist – Cancellation Likely
Gotham – Renewal Likely
iZombie – Renewal Possible
The Last Man on Earth – Renewal Possible
Making History – Cancellation Likely
Once Upon A Time – On the Bubble
The Originals – Renewal Possible
Scream Queens – Cancellation Likely
Sleepy Hollow – On the Bubble
Son of Zorn – On the Bubble
Timeless – On the Bubble
Of these, I am pretty confident in the Cancellation Likely status I have assigned to The Exorcist, Making History, and Scream Queens. I’m also pretty confident that Gotham will be back next season unless they have a problem negotiating contracts. The other eight are all pretty much a crapshoot. I discussed Agents of SHIELD, iZombie, and The Originals previously at this link. I looked at FOX’s three genre comedies last week here. And I previously considered the odds for Sleepy Hollow here and for Timeless here.
As for Once Upon A Time, that one could come down to the wire (there’s usually at least one every year) and hinge on contract negotiations. The show plans on wrapping up most of its story arcs with its season finale this coming Sunday, but series creators Edward Kitsis and Adam Horowitz have plans for a reboot of sorts next year. However, series star Jennifer Morrison (who was part of the reboot plans) has chosen not to stay with the show on a regular basis, though she could return as a recurring character. Once Upon A Time sunk pretty low in the ratings this season, so ABC will be thinking long and hard about whether they want it back for another year, especially considering it is at a good ending point and has more than enough episodes for an extended syndication run. So this will all depend on contract negotiations as well as the shows ABC decides to pick up among this season’s crop of pilots. If they can bring Once Upon A Time back for another year at an affordable price and there is room on the schedule, they may do it. But if they feel strong about enough of their pilots, the veteran series may get sent off to its life in syndication reruns. And even if it does come back for a seventh season, that will likely be its last.
Ratings Results of Interest: On Sunday, Starz’s American Gods slipped a bit with its second episode to a 0.30 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 710K total viewers. Those are still good numbers for that network, though, and the show is trending well on the social nets as it was in the Daily Nielsen Social Content Top 5 again on Sunday (at the Number 5 slot). I would not be surprised to hear an early renewal announcement on this one. Over on FOX, The Last Man on Earth wrapped up its third season with a whimper, managing only a 0.7 rating and 1.8 million total viewers for its double-episode finale. I still think that one has a shot at coming back for a fourth season next year, though. On Saturday, Disney XD ran three episodes of Guardians of the Galaxy in the morning, but they only managed a 0.05 rating with 230K total viewers. The continued low ratings along with the erratic scheduling of this show make me wonder if DXD is just burning off its second season at this point, so I am moving its status to On the Bubble.
Scorecard: As with last week, there is not much movement in the scorecard which is what I would expect at this point in the season. Below are the final rankings for each of these shows before we head into next weeks Upfronts when the fate of all the broadcast net entries should be determined.
The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below). Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.
Scorecard based on the ratings through May 7th (metric definitions below):
|Rank (PW)||Series||Net||Std Avg||Net Bench||% Var||Live+7 Avg Rtg||Status|
|1 (1)||The Walking Dead||AMC||5.39||0.60||798.2%||7.95||Renewed|
|2 (2)||American Horror Story||FX||1.58||0.60||162.5%||3.16||Renewed|
|3 (3)||The Flash (O)||CW||1.07||0.50||112.2%||1.89||Renewed|
|4 (4)||American Gods||STARZ||0.33||0.20||65.0%||n/a||Renewal Likely|
|5 (5)||The Magicians||Syfy||0.31||0.20||54.6%||0.71||Renewed|
|6 (7)||Supergirl (O)||CW||0.75||0.50||48.9%||1.37||Renewed|
|7 (8)||Star Wars Rebels||DXD||0.14||0.10||44.7%||0.34||Renewed|
|8 (6)||Into the Badlands||AMC||0.86||0.60||42.9%||1.44||Renewed|
|10 (10)||Son of Zorn (O)||FOX||1.28||0.99||29.0%||n/a||On the Bubble|
|11 (12)||Legends of Tomorrow (O)||CW||0.64||0.50||27.8%||1.13||Renewed|
|12 (11)||Arrow (O)||CW||0.64||0.50||26.5%||1.16||Renewed|
|13 (13)||Z Nation||Syfy||0.25||0.20||24.3%||0.42||Renewed|
|14 (14)||Supernatural (O)||CW||0.60||0.50||19.6%||1.09||Renewed|
|15 (15)||Gotham||FOX||1.12||0.99||13.0%||1.88||Renewal Likely|
|16 (16)||Shadowhunters||Free||0.28||0.25||11.2%||0.50||Renewal Likely|
|18 (18)||Stan Against Evil||IFC||0.08||0.08||-4.7%||n/a||Renewed|
|19 (19)||The Librarians||TNT||0.47||0.50||-5.2%||0.88||Renewed|
|20 (20)||Channel Zero||Syfy||0.19||0.20||-5.8%||0.38||Renewed|
|21 (21)||The Last Man on Earth (O)||FOX||0.91||0.99||-7.9%||1.48||Renewal Possible|
|22 (22)||The Good Place (O)||NBC||1.25||1.37||-8.7%||1.91||Renewed|
|24 (24)||The Expanse||Syfy||0.17||0.20||-15.0%||0.39||Renewed|
|25 (25)||MacGyver (O) (F)||CBS||1.08||1.28||-15.9%||1.67||Renewed|
|26 (27)||People of Earth||TBS||0.33||0.40||-18.1%||n/a||Renewed|
|27 (28)||Timeless||NBC||1.11||1.37||-18.7%||2.07||On the Bubble|
|30 (31)||Van Helsing||Syfy||0.16||0.20||-21.3%||0.30||Renewed|
|31 (32)||Ash vs Evil Dead||STARZ||0.16||0.20||-21.5%||0.34||Renewed|
|32 (33)||The 100 (O)||CW||0.35||0.45||-23.1%||0.67||Renewed|
|33 (34)||Once Upon A Time (O)||ABC||0.94||1.22||-23.5%||1.53||On the Bubble|
|34 (26)||Guardians of the Galaxy||DXD||0.08||0.10||-24.0%||n/a||On the Bubble|
|35 (36)||Legion (O)||FX||0.45||0.60||-25.0%||1.17||Renewed|
|36 (38)||Vampire Diaries (O) (F)||CW||0.38||0.50||-25.3%||0.75||Ended|
|37 (37)||Teen Wolf||MTV||0.22||0.30||-25.7%||0.44||Final Season|
|38 (35)||Making History (O)||NBC||0.68||0.91||-25.7%||n/a||Cancellation Likely|
|39 (39)||The Originals (O) (F)||CW||0.33||0.45||-27.8%||0.64||Renewal Possible|
|40 (40)||iZombie (O)||CW||0.32||0.45||-29.7%||0.67||Renewal Possible|
|41 (41)||The Strain||FX||0.42||0.60||-30.8%||0.85||Renewed|
|42 (42)||The Exorcist (O) (F)||FOX||0.67||0.99||-32.3%||1.09||Cancellation Likely|
|43 (43)||Scream Queens (O)||FOX||0.61||0.99||-38.4%||0.96||Cancellation Likely|
|44 (45)||Agents of SHIELD (O)||ABC||0.74||1.22||-39.4%||1.59||On the Bubble|
|45 (46)||Grimm (O) (F)||NBC||0.80||1.37||-41.5%||1.43||Ended|
|46 (44)||The Leftovers||HBO||0.35||0.60||-42.5%||n/a||Final Season|
|48 (48)||Powerless (O)||NBC||0.70||1.23||-42.9%||n/a||Cancelled|
|49 (50)||Emerald City (O) (F)||NBC||0.69||1.23||-43.8%||1.23||Cancelled|
|50 (49)||Sleepy Hollow (O) (F)||FOX||0.51||0.91||-44.1%||0.94||On the Bubble|
|51 (51)||Frequency (O)||CW||0.28||0.50||-44.8%||0.51||Cancelled|
|53 (53)||Falling Water||USA||0.15||0.30||-51.0%||0.30||Renewed|
|54 (54)||Time After Time||ABC||0.53||1.20||-56.3%||0.70||Cancelled|
|55 (55)||Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency||BBCA||0.09||0.40||-77.5%||n/a||Renewed|
Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below). The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank. Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.
Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.
StD Avg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.
Net Bench: (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier). For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample. But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.
% Var: The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above. The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.
Live+7 Avg Rtg: The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast. This data is not available for all shows.
Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)