Cancellation Watch: Shadowhunters Enters the Scorecard at Number 4, Emerald City Enters in the Lower Third

By | January 10, 2017

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings Results of Interest: On Saturday, Star Wars: Rebels returned from hiatus with improved numbers at a 0.20 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 570k total viewers.  I still believe that one will be back for at least one more season.  On Sunday, The Librarians improved to a 0.51 rating with 2.1 million total viewers with much less competition on the night.  Expect a fourth season renewal announcement for that one at any time now.  Over on FOX, Son of Zorn returned from hiatus at a 1.8 rating with 4.3 million total viewers as it again benefited from a strong lead-in from The Simpsons and NFL bleed-over.  I consider that show an under-performer that only looks good because it leaches off the lead-in numbers it has been gifted with.  But I am going to take it off the Bubble for now because I believe FOX will keep it around in light of the other struggles the network is facing this year.  I previously looked at last week’s ratings results for Monday through Friday at this link.


Also Read: Cancellation Watch Breaking News: The CW Renews The Flash, Supernatural and All the Shows You Would Expect, Plus Constantine Will Come Back as an Animated Series


Scorecard: This is the first scorecard of mid-season, and as I mentioned previously, this has shifted to Tuesdays and will take the place of the ratings roundup because I believe it gives a better perspective on where all the shows currently stand in the our ratings challenged environment. There has been some shuffling since the end of Fall, though that is in part due to five shows making their first appearance on the scorecard which causes some incidental movement. Also, The CW has not fully ramped up its mid-season schedule yet, so that network’s shows are in a bit of flux at the moment.

shadowhunters-s2Freeform’s Shadowhunters enters the scorecard at Number 4, though I admit that the network benchmark number of 0.25 is a bit arbitrary. We have seen shows cancelled below that number (Dead of Summer at a 0.20 average) but others renewed well below that number (Stitchers at a 0.15 average), meaning that network is factoring plenty of other stats when deciding which shows to keep around. But Shadowhunters was the most social new series in its first season and is already trending well in its second year, so I believe that show is safe for now. The other Freeform entry, Beyond, is several rungs lower on the scale at Number 12, but I believe its current linear viewing numbers are acceptable for its network and the show will be okay if it does not slip too much.

NBC’s new series Emerald City scored somewhat tepid ratings for its debut last Friday, and it enters the scorecard in the bottom third at the Number 33 slot. For a Friday show, its numbers may not be too bad where they currently stand (and it did top the Daily Nielsen Social Top 5 for the night), but it has little leeway for slippage. Plus, it is an expensive entry and has already been dubbed with the dreaded “event series” tag, so this show is starting out facing plenty of hurdles. FOX’s Sleepy Hollow returned for its fourth season on Friday matching the ratings lows it saw last year and it starts out on the Scorecard in the second to last slot at Number 40. That show is likely in its final season unless the international audience, which FOX claims is quite large, keeps it afloat. NBC’s Grimm also entered the Scorecard on the lower end (at Number 35), but that’s expected as that show is in its final season.

Syfy’s Incorporated slipped from the Number 17 slot it held in the final Fall Scorecard to Number 28, reflecting its ratings drops the last few weeks. But since that network typically gives its shows two seasons to prove themselves, I still believe it has a chance of returning for a second year. And fans of any of the cable shows in the lower half of the Scorecard should take note that the right partnerships can keep a series afloat despite low linear viewing as we saw with BBC America’s Dirk Gently which has a streaming deal with Netflix. USA’s Falling Water could benefit from the same sort of arrangement as that show has a streaming deal with Amazon.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard based on the ratings through January 8th (metric definitions below):
(Links are to the show pages on this site with season to date ratings results and status updates)

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Status
1 The Walking Dead AMC 5.71 0.60 851.5% 8.43 Renewed
2 American Horror Story FX 1.58 0.60 162.5% 3.16 Renewed
3 The Flash (O) CW 1.16 0.56 105.9% 2.03 Renewed
4 Shadowhunters Free 0.38 0.25 52.0% n/a Renewal Likely
5 Supergirl (O) CW 0.85 0.56 51.5% 1.45 Renewed
6 Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.15 0.10 48.2% 0.30 Renewal Likely
7 Westworld HBO 0.80 0.60 33.8% 1.50 Renewed
8 Arrow (O) CW 0.74 0.56 32.7% 1.31 Renewed
9 Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.44 1.14 26.5% n/a On the Bubble
10 Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.70 0.56 24.7% 1.20 Renewed
11 Z Nation Syfy 0.25 0.20 24.3% 0.42 Renewed
12 Beyond Free 0.29 0.25 16.0% n/a Renewal Possible
13 Supernatural (O) CW 0.65 0.56 15.8% 1.18 Renewed
14 Gotham FOX 1.13 1.14 -0.9% 1.90 Renewal Likely
15 The Librarians TNT 0.48 0.50 -4.3% 0.88 Renewal Likely
16 Stan Against Evil IFC 0.08 0.08 -4.7% n/a Renewed
17 Channel Zero Syfy 0.19 0.20 -5.8% 0.38 Renewed
18 Lucifer FOX 1.06 1.14 -6.9% 1.83 Renewal Possible
19 The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.98 1.14 -14.1% 1.53 Renewal Possible
20 Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.05 1.26 -16.6% 1.67 Renewal Possible
21 People of Earth TBS 0.33 0.40 -18.1% n/a Renewed
22 MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.14 1.41 -19.0% 1.80 Renewal Possible
23 Timeless NBC 1.29 1.61 -19.7% 2.29 On the Bubble
24 Aftermath Syfy 0.16 0.20 -20.8% 0.33 Renewal Likely
25 The Good Place (O) NBC 1.27 1.61 -21.0% 1.98 Renewal Possible
26 Van Helsing Syfy 0.16 0.20 -21.3% 0.30 Renewed
27 Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 0.20 -21.5% 0.34 Renewed
28 Incorporated Syfy 0.15 0.20 -23.3% 0.37 Renewal Possible
29 Teen Wolf MTV 0.23 0.30 -23.9% 0.43 Final Season
30 The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
31 Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.84 1.26 -33.5% 1.74 Cancellation Likely
32 Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.37 0.56 -33.8% 0.74 Final Season
33 Emerald City (O) (F) NBC 1.00 1.61 -37.7% n/a On the Bubble
34 The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.67 1.14 -41.1% 1.09 Cancellation Likely
35 Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.90 1.61 -44.0% n/a Final Season
36 Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -45.7% n/a Cancelled
37 Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.61 1.14 -46.4% 0.96 Cancellation Likely
38 Frequency (O) CW 0.29 0.56 -48.3% 0.51 Cancellation Likely
39 Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -51.0% 0.30 On the Bubble
40 Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) NBC 0.60 1.61 -62.6% n/a On the Bubble
41 Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.09 0.40 -77.5% n/a Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a shows survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

One thought on “Cancellation Watch: Shadowhunters Enters the Scorecard at Number 4, Emerald City Enters in the Lower Third

  1. pamela white

    We are never told what time or station they are on in the uk!!!….we miss out on so much

    Reply

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