Cancellation Watch: Legends of Tomorrow Gets More Episodes, Salem is Barely Registering in the Ratings, Plus the Scorecard

By | November 12, 2016

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

legends-of-tomorrow-s2Additional Episode Order: The CW announced this week that Legends of Tomorrow will be getting four more episodes for its second season.  This announcement has to be viewed differently than NBC’s three-episode order for Timeless from last week, though, because LoT was originally only supposed to have thirteen eps this season.  The fifth place network has kept that show to a smaller episode count because it is more expensive to produce.  So adding four more to the count is likely a good sign for the show even though its ratings are down from last year.  Timeless, on the other hand, had a thirteen episode order that could have been extended by as much as nine more.  Ordering only three usually suggests that the network has a lack of confidence in the show, and they are just planning to use the additional episode for schedule padding (more on that at this link).  But this is definitely good news for Legends of Tomorrow and suggests that it is even a stronger candidate now for getting a third season renewal.

Ratings Results of Interest: On Wednesday, WGN’s Salem slipped all the way to a 0.06 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 210k total viewers and it didn’t even make it into the Top 150 cable originals for the night.  It’s numbers are down considerably from its second season (which were already pretty low), and I have to wonder about where it stands at this point.  But then it has made it to the three season threshold for a cable series, so it could still survive to a fourth year.  Don’t be surprised if that gets announced as its last, though.  Over on IFC, new horror / comedy series Stan Against Evil improved on its debut numbers from the prior week and pulled a 0.08 rating with 220k total viewers.  Those are apparently decent numbers for that network and Deadline Hollywood commented that the debut’s Live+3 ratings made it the network’s highest rated premiere this year.  So consider it a good candidate for a second season (and how about a cross-over with Ash?).  Most of the Monday and Wednesday shows all rebounded from last week’s lows when Halloween and the World Series were cutting into the audience.  Tuesday was mostly preemptions and repeats due to the election coverage.  Syfy’s Channel Zero and Aftermath were down that night, but expect them to rebound next week.  On Thursday, USA’s Falling Water improved slightly to a 0.14 rating with 470k tot viewers, though that is likely too little too late.  NBC’s The Good Place has already gone on hiatus, apparently to stretch out its first season which is only thirteen episodes long (because it is more expensive to produce than the typical sitcom).  On Friday, MacGyver remained at a 1.1 rating with 7.7 million total viewers (based on the preliminaries), but trailed notably behind the other CBS entries for the night. I will have the full ratings roundup for this week available in the upcoming Tuesday Cancellation Watch post.  And you can see last week’s roundup at this link.

Scorecard:  There is not a whole lot of movement in the rankings this week as the Scorecard has mostly settled in for the Fall.  WGN’s Salem did drop four notches, though, reflecting its notable ratings decline.  I have not included Stan Against Evil in the Scorecard because I don’t have enough benchmark data for IFC, but consider that one in good standing at the moment.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi & fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see definition below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Broadcast network scorecard based on the ratings through November 10th (metric definitions below):
(Links are to the show pages on this site with season to date ratings results and status updates)

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Cancel Alert
1 The Walking Dead AMC 6.71 0.60 1018.3% 9.85 Renewed
2 American Horror Story FX 1.49 0.60 148.8% 3.20 Renewed
3 The Flash (O) CW 1.08 0.60 80.0% 1.97 Low
4 Z Nation Syfy 0.33 0.20 65.0% 0.40 Low
5 Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.16 0.10 56.7% 0.30 Low
6 Supergirl (O) CW 0.82 0.60 36.7% 1.50 Low
7 Westworld HBO 0.74 0.60 22.5% 1.40 Low
8 Son of Zorn (O) FOX 1.42 1.17 21.1% n/a Low
10 Supernatural (O) CW 0.66 0.60 10.0% 1.20 Low
9 Arrow (O) CW 0.67 0.60 11.1% 1.25 Low
11 Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.62 0.60 3.3% 1.10 Low
12 Channel Zero Syfy 0.20 0.20 -1.0% 0.40 Low
13 Gotham FOX 1.14 1.17 -2.8% 1.93 Low
14 Lucifer FOX 1.06 1.17 -9.6% 1.88 Low
15 Timeless NBC 1.44 1.68 -14.2% 2.63 Moderate
16 Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.10 1.28 -14.2% 1.75 Low
17 Van Helsing Syfy 0.17 0.20 -15.0% 0.30 Renewed
18 Aftermath Syfy 0.17 0.20 -17.1% 0.40 Low
19 Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.17 0.20 -17.5% 0.38 Renewed
20 The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 0.96 1.17 -17.9% 1.60 Moderate
21 MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 1.19 1.50 -20.9% 1.95 Low
22 The Good Place (O) NBC 1.31 1.68 -22.1% 2.03 Low
23 People of Earth TBS 0.31 0.40 -22.5% n/a Low
24 The Strain FX 0.42 0.60 -30.8% 0.85 Renewed
25 Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 0.87 1.28 -32.4% 1.80 Medium
26 Scream Queens (O) FOX 0.75 1.17 -35.9% 1.25 Medium
27 The Exorcist (O) (F) FOX 0.72 1.17 -38.7% 1.18 Medium
28 Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.37 0.60 -38.9% 0.70 Final Season
29 Salem WGN 0.08 0.15 -46.7% n/a Low
30 Frequency (O) CW 0.32 0.60 -47.2% 0.53 Medium
31 Falling Water USA 0.15 0.30 -49.3% n/a Medium
32 Dirk Gentlys Holistic Detective Agency BBCA 0.10 0.40 -74.2% n/a Moderate

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower. These typically just apply to the broadcast networks where they are more of a factor.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts (for FOX, Empire is also excluded because it counts as an outlier).  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the network mean.

Live+3 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to three days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.  Last year I had the Live+7 delayed viewing, but the availability of that data was very spotty so I am shifting to this metric.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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