Cancellation Watch: Could Supergirl be Making a Move to Survive for a Second Season? Houdini & Doyle Debuts Low, Plus the Scorecards

By | May 6, 2016

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

supergirl-cbsOn the Move? Deadline Hollywood has reported that freshman CBS series Supergirl could be moving production from Los Angeles to Vancouver in order to cut costs.  That is partly because the show did not get expected tax breaks from the California Film Commission, but it has also not been the ratings success that CBS expected and apparently they want to keep costs down if they are to consider a second season.  There’s also the chance that it could shift to The CW for its second season which means that a lot of discussions are being generated around the fate of the show and it is not guaranteed to come back at this point.  Deadline mentions that among the cast members “many are not thrilled about the potential move” and that a second season could have a shorter episode count to keep costs down.  But moving to Vancouver makes sense logistically because that is where the other Greg Berlanti produced shows are located (Arrow, The Flash, and Legends of Tomorrow).  And the article also mentions that if CBS and/or The CW do not greenlight a second season of the show, other networks and digital platforms have shown an interest in picking it up.  The predictions have been hopeful for this show up to this point, but my gut has been telling me that the road looks rough for it.  I still believe the chances that are decent that Supergirl will continue to fly on television after this season, but it’s not a lock and changes are definitely coming if it does stick around.

Ratings Results of Interest: On Monday, Houdini & Doyle could only scrape up a 0.7 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 2.6 million total viewers for its debut. Those numbers are too low, even if you count it as a Summer entry. This one does come as a partnership with the British ITV network, and that makes it cheaper for FOX. But even taking that into account, it has to be considered a dud. Like NBC’s You, Me, and The Apocalypse (which came as a partnership with the Sky Channel), it will likely be allowed to air out its episodes and then FOX will be done with it. Whether ITV elects to carry the on show themselves or in a new partnership remains to be seen.  On Tuesday, Person of Interest returned for its final season with a 1.2 rating and 7.4 million total viewers.  That 1.2 score is not bad for that hour and the total viewership count will get it in the broadcast network Top 25 for the week in that metric.  Considering it is a fifth year series that already has a syndication deal (where shows really start to turn a profit), seems like CBS may have decided to end this one too soon.  As far as the cable “ratings noise” shows for the week, 12 Monkeys had a 0.11 score, Hunters a 0.07, Damien a 0.17, and Stitchers a 0.13.  I consider all of these Call to Action shows that would definitely benefit from support by the fans on the social networks.

The Scorecards: There was not much change in the scorecards this week, though The 100 did slip a notch (allowing new entry Containment to move ahead of it) because its numbers have been down for several weeks now. The broadcast net scorecard ranks all of the broadcast net sci fi / fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s 2016 season to date average for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming during the week (based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic).  Shows at or above their network’s average should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Broadcast network scorecard based on the ratings through May 4th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg 2016 Net Avg Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Cancel Alert
1 (1) The X-Files (O) FOX 3.17 1.45 1.72 4.90 Low
2 (2) The Flash (O) CW 1.38 0.61 0.76 2.28 Renewed
3 (3) Arrow (O) CW 0.97 0.61 0.35 1.60 Renewed
4 (4) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.83 0.61 0.22 1.52 Renewed
5 (5) Supergirl CBS 1.68 1.49 0.19 2.52 Low
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.72 0.61 0.10 1.22 Renewed
7 (7) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.38 1.33 0.05 2.36 Renewed
8 (8) Lucifer FOX 1.47 1.45 0.02 2.61 Renewed
9 (9) Gotham FOX 1.43 1.45 -0.02 2.52 Renewed
10 (11) Angel from Hell (O) CBS 1.42 1.49 -0.07 1.90 Cancelled
11 (10) iZombie (O) CW 0.53 0.61 -0.08 0.82 Renewed
12 (13) Containment (O) CW 0.50 0.61 -0.11 n/a Moderate
13 (12) The 100 (O) CW 0.49 0.61 -0.12 0.87 Renewed
14 (14) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 1.21 1.33 -0.12 2.21 Renewed
15 (16) Limitless (O) CBS 1.35 1.49 -0.14 2.42 Moderate
16 (15) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.48 0.61 -0.14 0.96 Renewed
17 (17) Heroes Reborn (O) NBC 1.21 1.39 -0.18 2.13 Cancelled
18 (18) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.40 0.61 -0.21 0.76 Renewed
19 (19) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 1.19 1.45 -0.26 1.94 Renewed
20 (20) Scream Queens (O) FOX 1.05 1.45 -0.39 1.89 Renewed
21 (21) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.91 1.39 -0.48 1.69 Renewed
22 (22) Agent Carter (O) ABC 0.80 1.33 -0.53 1.43 Medium
23 (23) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.82 1.45 -0.63 1.47 Medium
24 (24) Galavant (O) ABC 0.64 1.33 -0.69 0.85 Moderate
25 (25) You Me and the Apocalypse NBC 0.69 1.39 -0.70 n/a Cancelled
26 (26) Minority Report (O) FOX 0.71 1.45 -0.74 1.24 High
27 (27) Second Chance (O) (F) FOX 0.65 1.45 -0.80 0.87 High

The cable scorecard is more subjective than the broadcast net version because it is not as easy (or useful) to compile network averages for the cable channels. So this is ranked based on the Cancellation Alert status of these shows from least to most likely to get cancelled.

Cable Scorecard based on ratings through May 4th (metric definitions below):

Series Net Std Avg Prior Yr Avg Var Cancel Alert
The Walking Dead AMC 6.48 7.37 -0.88 Renewed
Game of Thrones HBO 3.83 7.37 -3.54 Renewed
Fear the Walking Dead AMC 2.47 3.79 -1.32 Renewed
Into the Badlands AMC 1.79 n/a n/a Renewed
American Horror Story FX 1.49 1.91 -0.42 Renewed
The Librarians TNT 0.52 0.92 -0.39 Renewed
Shadowhunters Free 0.41 n/a n/a Renewed
Teen Wolf MTV 0.41 0.49 -0.08 Renewed
The Shannara Chronicles MTV 0.39 n/a n/a Renewed
Colony USA 0.38 n/a n/a Renewed
Doctor Who BBCA 0.37 n/a n/a Renewed
Z Nation (O) Syfy 0.33 0.48 -0.15 Renewed
The Magicians Syfy 0.29 n/a n/a Renewed
The Expanse Syfy 0.21 n/a n/a Renewed
Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 n/a n/a Renewed
Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.15 0.15 0.00 Renewed
Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.10 n/a n/a Renewed
Outlander STARZ 0.30 0.30 0.00 Low
Orphan Black BBCA 0.10 0.20 -0.10 Low
Slasher Chill 0.02 n/a n/a Low
Time Traveling Bong CC 0.24 n/a n/a Moderate
Damien A&E 0.19 n/a n/a Moderate
Wynonna Earp Syfy 0.15 n/a n/a Moderate
12 Monkeys Syfy 0.12 0.20 -0.08 Moderate
Hunters Syfy 0.11 n/a n/a Moderate
Beowulf Esq 0.04 n/a n/a Elevated
The Leftovers HBO 0.33 0.77 -0.44 Final Season
Lost Girl Syfy 0.11 0.20 -0.09 Final Season
Bitten Syfy 0.09 0.20 -0.11 Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Broadcast Network Scorecard:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s season to date ratings average (see metric definitions below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

2016 Net Avg:  The network’s season to date ratings average for 2016 only based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  Note the the post NFL Championship debut of The X-Files is not included in FOX’s averages because it is non-representative of normal Prime Time performance and it skews the numbers too much

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and the network’s season to date average as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the network mean.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Cable Scorecard:

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Prior Yr Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average from its prior season (if applicable) based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and its Prior Year average as defined above.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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