Cancellation Watch: Where Does Agent Carter Stand Now that Agents of SHIELD Has Been Renewed? Plus Lucifer and Supergirl are Fading and the Scorecards

By | March 4, 2016

agent-carter-cancelledAgent Carter Scenarios: ABC announced the fourth season renewal for Agents of SHIELD yesterday, but they have said nothing about Agent Carter yet.  I have contended since last season that their fates are tied to an extent, and I believe now we have a clearer picture of where Agent Carter stands. With the AoS renewal and the fact that Haley Atwell has been cast in an upcoming ABC pilot, I’m thinking that AC is now done as a standalone show.  Even the executive producers of the show have said its chances of making it to a third season are “bad”.  ABC currently has the Marvel’s Most Wanted spin-off from Agents of SHIELD in development and I’m thinking that one will get the timeshare slot on the schedule that Agent Carter has had the last two seasons, at least in its first year.  But since I think that AoS will be in its last season next year, the producers would be smart to bring Peggy Carter in for a few episodes to more closely tie the two shows together and then they can be packaged for a syndication run.  MMW might then pick up the Avengers tie-in baton from parent series AoS and carry on beyond next season, or if the ratings don’t justify it then it could get tacked on to that syndication package as well.  But no matter how it plays out, I don’t see a scenario where Agent Carter returns to ABC for another season.  Netflix could pick up the show as they have indicated they want to expand there Marvel offerings.  But it doesn’t fit in well with their current Defenders shows and if Atwell’s pilot gets the greenlight I’m thinking it won’t work out (and the EPs don’t think it is happening either).  Bringing the character over to guest star on Agents of SHIELD is the best bet at this point and will at least give some resolution to Agent Carter fans and allow the show to live on in syndication.  Of course Disney could just play its trump card and insist the show come back, but its ratings were so low this season that I’m thinking that won’t happen.

Declining Ratings: While FOX’s Gotham returned from its hiatus at the same levels it saw in Fall and looks okay for now. the other two Monday broadcast net genre shows are not looking too secure at the moment.  FOX’s new entry Lucifer has been slipping in the ratings since its debut and it dropped to a series low 1.3 rating based on the overnights this week without the lead-in boost it had previously enjoyed from The X-Files.  That has the show significantly below FOX’s overall average for 2016 and it prompted me to move the show’s Cancellation Alert level to Moderate.  In the show’s favor is the fact that the network has several extra hours on the schedule to fill next season because American Idol will not be back.  So if Lucifer can at least hold steady or preferably edge back up, then it still has a chance.  It’s numbers aren’t at disastrous levels right now and it pairs pretty good with Gotham on Mondays which looks set to return next season.  But if Lucifer slips much further, then so do its chances of survival.  It still looks pretty good in the broadcast network scorecard below, but that’s because its early numbers with The X-Files as its lead-in are skewing up its average.  It will continue to drop in the scorecard if its numbers stay at their current level or fall further.  Over on CBS, that network appears to be losing the battle of the DC Comics shows as Supergirl slipped to a series low 1.4 rating based on the overnights.  That’s an expensive show to produce and it does not fit in well with the procedurals and sitcoms that the network’s older-skewing audience tunes in for.  Though with the MacGyver reboot in the works, I could see where that one would fit in well with Supergirl and Scorpion on Mondays to attract a younger crowd to the net.  But if Supergirl‘s numbers stay low, I have a hard time seeing the show coming back for a second season on CBS.  Of course the obvious thought would be to just shift it to The CW to join the Arrow-verse (and a cross-over with The Flash is already planned), but Supergirl has a higher cost structure that would make that move difficult.  I believe it could be worked out if the networks’ put their minds to it, though.  If Supergirl can just get its numbers back up closer to the 1.8 range, I think it will be okay.  But if it holds at its current levels, then the Nielsen kryptonite could prove too much to overcome.

Scorecards: There was not much change in the rankings this week, though you can see that Lucifer has slipped one notch.  And it will continue to move downward if its numbers do not improve. The scorecard ranks all of the broadcast net sci fi / fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s 2016 season to date average for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat programming during the week (based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic).  Shows at or above their network’s average should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Broadcast network scorecard based on the ratings through March 4th (metric definitions below):

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg 2016 Net Avg Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Cancel Alert
1 (1) The X-Files (O) FOX 3.17 1.60 1.56 n/a Low
2 (2) The Flash (O) CW 1.42 0.69 0.73 2.29 Low
3 (3) Arrow (O) CW 1.02 0.69 0.33 1.73 Low
4 (4) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.96 0.69 0.27 n/a Low
5 (5) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.57 1.35 0.22 2.59 Low
6 (7) Supergirl CBS 1.77 1.59 0.18 2.79 Low
7 (6) Lucifer FOX 1.75 1.60 0.15 n/a Low
8 (8) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 1.42 1.35 0.07 2.39 Moderate
9 (9) Supernatural (O) CW 0.74 0.69 0.05 1.25 Low
10 (10) Heroes Reborn (O) NBC 1.21 1.26 -0.05 2.31 Cancelled
11 (12) Gotham FOX 1.51 1.60 -0.10 2.65 Low
12 (11) The 100 (O) CW 0.57 0.69 -0.12 n/a Moderate
13 (13) iZombie (O) CW 0.55 0.69 -0.14 0.85 Moderate
14 (14) Limitless (O) CBS 1.43 1.59 -0.16 2.63 Moderate
15 (15) Angel from Hell (O) CBS 1.42 1.59 -0.17 n/a Cancelled
16 (16) Vampire Diaries (O) (F) CW 0.51 0.69 -0.18 1.09 Low
17 (17) The Originals (O) (F) CW 0.41 0.69 -0.28 0.82 Low
18 (18) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 1.28 1.60 -0.32 2.03 Medium
19 (19) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.91 1.26 -0.35 1.73 Medium
20 (20) You Me and the Apocalypse NBC 0.77 1.26 -0.49 n/a Elevated
21 (22) Scream Queens (O) FOX 1.05 1.60 -0.55 1.89 Renewed
22 (21) Agent Carter (O) ABC 0.80 1.35 -0.55 n/a Medium
23 (23) Galavant (O) ABC 0.64 1.35 -0.71 n/a Moderate
24 (24) Sleepy Hollow (O) (F) FOX 0.88 1.60 -0.73 1.63 High
25 (25) Second Chance (O) (F) FOX 0.73 1.60 -0.88 n/a High
26 (26) Minority Report (O) FOX 0.71 1.60 -0.89 1.24 High

The cable scorecard is more subjective than the broadcast net version because it is not as easy (or useful) to compile network averages for the cable channels. So this is ranked based on the Cancellation Alert status of these shows from least to most likely to get cancelled.

Cable Scorecard based on ratings through March 3rd (metric definitions below):

Series Net Std Avg Prior Yr Avg Var Cancel Alert
The Walking Dead AMC 6.62 7.37 -0.75 Renewed
American Horror Story FX 1.49 1.91 -0.42 Renewed
The Librarians TNT 0.52 0.92 -0.39 Renewed
Teen Wolf MTV 0.41 0.49 -0.08 Renewed
Colony USA 0.39 n/a n/a Renewed
Doctor Who BBCA 0.37 n/a n/a Renewed
Z Nation (O) (F) Syfy 0.33 0.48 -0.15 Renewed
The Magicians Syfy 0.30 n/a n/a Renewed
The Expanse Syfy 0.21 n/a n/a Renewed
Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 n/a n/a Renewed
Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.14 0.15 -0.01 Renewed
Bitten Syfy 0.11 0.20 -0.09 Renewed
Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.10 n/a n/a Renewed
Into the Badlands AMC 1.79 n/a n/a Low
Shadowhunters Free 0.46 n/a n/a Low
The Shannara Chronicles MTV 0.39 n/a n/a Moderate
Beowulf Esq 0.04 0.20 -0.16 Moderate
The Leftovers HBO 0.33 0.77 -0.44 Final Season
Lost Girl Syfy 0.11 0.20 -0.09 Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Broadcast Network Scorecard:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s season to date ratings average (see metric definitions below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

2016 Net Avg:  The network’s season to date ratings average for 2016 only based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  Note the the post NFL Championship debut of The X-Files is not included in FOX’s averages because it is non-representative of normal Prime Time performance and it skews the numbers too much

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and the network’s season to date average as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the network mean.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Cable Scorecard:

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Prior Yr Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average from its prior season (if applicable) based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and its Prior Year average as defined above.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

 

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