Cancellation Watch: The Flash and Arrow are Among a Small Number of Shows Guaranteed To Get Renewed, Minority Report and Second Chance are Sure to Get Cancelled; Plus the Weekly Ratings Roundup

By | February 17, 2016

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

The-Flash-season-2Certain Renewals and Cancellations: We still have a few more months left in the season, and it’s a bit early to make final renewal / cancellation calls (though I will be doing that about mid to late April).  But there are several shows that are pretty much a lock at this point, so it is worth getting them flagged as sure renewals to put fans at ease (assuming they were worrying in the first place).  Interestingly enough, almost all of them of CW shows.  Leading off is The Flash which has performed consistently well throughout its second season and is racing ahead of its Tuesday night competition on the Big Four broadcast nets like Agents of SHIELD, Agent Carter, and Limitless at this point in the season.  And parent series Arrow also counts as a lock to get another season.  It has not pulled numbers as high as The Flash, but it is The CW’s second highest rated show season to date.  The only thing that would keep those two from coming back next year would be if The CW were to fold (not an impossibility considering that the Peak TV bubble has to burst at some point), but even then I am betting that another network or the streaming services would grab them up.  Supernatural also looks to be headed into a twelfth year seeing as we have yet to hear an announcement on this being its final season.  As long as the cast and crew are willing to stick with that one, it appears that The CW will keep it on the air.  Vampire Diaries is getting long in the tooth and its spin-off series The Originals has dropped in the ratings this year, but both of those look certain to come back next year as well.  The parent series will almost certainly be heading into its last season, which could be as short as six episodes.  And The Originals may be eyeing a wrap up as well, but I’m thinking the network will keep its options open on that one.  Mid-season entry Legends of Tomorrow has performed well thus far, but it only has four episodes under its belt so it is way too early to make a call.  And The CW may play the limited-run card on that one since it is such an expensive show to produce.  But I would bet good money that they will get another team-up show on the schedule next year (and hopefully they will keep Rip Hunter as the lead).

Among the other networks, there is only one show that I would currently say is almost a lock to get a renewal.  I had previously thought that ABC’s Once Upon A Time might be looking at wrapping up this season, but there has been no announcement on that thus far.  So I would say that it has at least one more season in it and perhaps more if Disney wants to keep cranking its stock of characters into the show’s story arcs.  FOX’s X-Files revival would surely be back based on its ratings performance, but that’s contingent on whether the principals can work another run into their schedules (and whether they have a desire to do so).  I’m betting the network tries hard to get them back, though.  During the first half of the season, I would have said that FOX’s Gotham looked good for a renewal, but that was largely because the rest of that network’s schedule was mostly a disaster in Fall.  Another season of that show will hinge heavily on how it does when it returns starting on February 29th.  And Lucifer has looked good in the post-X-Files hour, but its fate will be more closely tied to how it performs with Gotham as its lead-in.  And over on the Freeform network (formerly ABC Family), Shadowhunters looks to be performing well enough to get a second season, though the cable shows are a bit harder to call because more intangibles come into play.  But Stitchers got renewed on that network with lower numbers, so Shadowhunters doesn’t appear to be in any danger at the moment.

As for certain cancellations, you can pretty much write off FOX’s Minority Report and Second Chance (short of an unprecedented Call to Action from the fans) as they are currently cancelled in all but name.  And that network’s Sleepy Hollow and The Last Man on Earth are looking pretty bad at the moment as well.  It would also seem that ABC’s Galavant is certain to get cancelled seeing as it slipped to historically low ratings for a Big Four broadcast network show in its second season.  But it beat the odds last year, so I’m not calling it a certain cancellation this time around.  And the announcement that Agent Carter star Haley Atwell has been cast in an upcoming pilot definitely puts her current show in doubt, though it’s not necessarily dead yet.

Already renewed this season are Colony (USA), The Expanse (Syfy), The Librarians (TNT), The Magicians (Syfy), Scream Queens (FOX), Teen Wolf (MTV), The Walking Dead (AMC) and Z Nation (Syfy).  Officially cancelled are Heroes Reborn (NBC) and Angel from Hell (CBS).  I have commentaries on the renewal / cancellation chances of the other shows currently airing below and be sure to follow this site and the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for updates and breaking news.

Mid-Season Premiere: The Walking Dead returned on Sunday from its Winter hiatus, but its numbers were down from its Fall finale.  Its mid-season bow pulled a 6.8 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic which was down from the 7.0 score it had at the end of November and the 8.0 rating it had for its mid-season return last year.  The inevitable attrition is definitely setting in, but as I have said many times before, this show has plenty of leeway because it is still far and above all other scripted programming that the broadcast networks and/or cable channels have airing at the moment.  Plus, it could rebound to previous highs if the promised arrival of notorious villain Negan from the comics brings viewers back (and there are other popular characters and storylines from the comics waiting in the wings as well).  So no need to fret over this one or consider it to be in a ratings slump any worse that what we are seeing in general across linear viewing.  It will almost definitely walk out on its own terms and in its own time.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Monday February 8th thru Sunday February 14th (metric definitions below):

(Updated for the broadcast network and cable Top 25 chart activity)

Gotham FOX Mon 2/8 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.5 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus, returns February 29th.

Supergirl CBS Mon 2/8 8 PM
Rating: 1.8 | % Chng PW: +20.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 7.9 | StD Rating: 1.8 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It’s numbers rebounded last week, but it’s not guaranteed a renewal at this point. As an expensive entry airing on sci fi-averse CBS, it still has to prove itself. But if it can hold at its current levels then I believe its chances look good.

Chart Activity: This show remained at Number 21 in the broadcast network Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic and it was at Number 22 of the Top 25 based on total viewers (it slipped out of that chart last week).

The X-Files FOX Mon 2/8 8 PM
Rating: 2.5 | % Chng PW: -7.4% | Tot Viewers (MM): 8.3 | StD Rating: 3.6 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It has dropped each week (including this past Monday to a 2.1 rating), but it is still out-performing most of the programming currently on the broadcast networks. I’m sure FOX is trying to wrangle a deal for another “limited run” on next season’s schedule.

Chart Activity:  This show improved to Number 3 in the broadcast network Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic (up from Number 6) and slipped to Number 16 based on total viewers (down from Number 11).

Lucifer CBS Mon 2/8 9 PM
Rating: 1.7 | % Chng PW: -15.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.5 | StD Rating: 2.0 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Its numbers keep sinking (again this past Monday to a 1.6 score), but how it performs once Gotham is its lead-in will be key to its survival.

Chart Activity: This show slipped to Number 24 in the broadcast network Top 25 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic (down from Number 13) and did not make it into the Top 25 based on total viewers.

The Magicians Syfy Mon 2/8 9 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: -20.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.8 | StD Rating: 0.3 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It slipped some last week, but it has already been renewed for a second season.

Lost Girl Syfy Mon 2/8 10 PM
Rating: 0.1 | % Chng PW: +9.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.4 | StD Rating: 0.1 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Final Season

This show’s numbers are down year over year, but it’s not a factor seeing as it is in its final season.

The Flash CW Tue 2/9 8 PM
Rating: 1.6 | % Chng PW: +14.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.0 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This one improved to a season high with the first part of its Earth 2 story and it continues to race ahead to a certain third season renewal.

Agent Carter ABC Tue 2/9 9 PM
Rating: 0.8 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.7 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Net Avg: 1.5 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

The numbers remain low and Haley Atwell has been cast in an upcoming ABC pilot. That’s more about securing the actress just in case, but I don’t like this show’s chances at the moment. More on this one at this link.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 2/9 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.9 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Net Avg: 1.5 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

On hiatus, returns March 8th.  Its chances for a renewal are decent, though not guaranteed which I discuss further at this link.

iZombie CW Tue 2/9 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.4 | StD Rating: 0.6 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

The numbers remain low for this show which is not good, especially considering that it is losing such a large chunk of its lead-in from The Flash. The CW has a lot of shows in development right now and this one could get squeezed off the schedule next season if it continues to perform at these levels.  The fans need a strong show of support for this one.

Shadowhunters Free Tue 2/9 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: +9.8% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.0 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Low

It improved from the prior week and everything is looking favorable for a second season renewal.

Teen Wolf MTV Tue 2/9 9 PM
Rating: 0.4 | % Chng PW: -15.6% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.9 | StD Rating: 0.4 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This show slipped from the prior week, but it has already been renewed for a sixth season.

Limitless CBS Tue 2/9 10 PM
Rating: 1.3 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.4 | StD Rating: 1.5 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Its numbers are up from its last new episode, but still not looking great at the moment. CBS already axed Angel from Hell which had only a slightly lower ratings average (and it is cheaper to produce since it is a sitcom), so that does not bode well for Limitless. It’s Call to Action time for this show’s fans.

The Shannara Chronicles MTV Tue 2/9 10 PM
Rating: 0.4 | % Chng PW: -20.5% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.8 | StD Rating: 0.4 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show’s numbers have been up then down then up then down. I believe it has international financing backing it which should help carry it into a second season, though not necessarily much further.

The Expanse Syfy Tue 2/9 10 PM
Rating: Season Ended | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.6 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Season ended. Renewed for a second season.

Arrow CW Wed 2/10 8 PM
Rating: 0.9 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.4 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show remained at a 0.9 rating, but that’s still plenty good enough for The CW and it will be coming back for a fifth season.

Supernatural CW Wed 2/10 9 PM
Rating: 0.8 | % Chng PW: +14.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.8 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

This show’s numbers improved and we can pretty much assume that another season is a sure thing seeing as the network has yet to announce plans to wrap it up. Who knows, this one may not retire until its lead actors are ready for the old folks home!

Star Wars Rebels DXD Wed 2/10 9:30 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: +42.9% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.6 | StD Rating: 0.1 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It improved from the prior week and it has already been renewed for a third season.

Legends of Tomorrow CW Thu 2/11 8 PM
Rating: 0.9 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.4 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Its numbers held steady with the prior week and whether or not it returns depends on if The CW wants to stick with this format or a different (cheaper) one for its DC team-up series.

You Me and the Apocalypse NBC Thu 2/11 8 PM
Rating: 0.8 | % Chng PW: -11.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.0 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

It’s numbers dropped again, which is not good. The international partnership makes this a cheaper entry for NBC, but these numbers are probably too low even with that factored in. There is always the chance that the British Sky channel could keep it going without NBC involved, though, so fans should make a strong showing of support.

The 100 CW Thu 2/11 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: -16.7% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.3 | StD Rating: 0.6 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It slipped down to a 0.5 score which is not good. If it gets back up to the 0.6 or 0.7 level, it has a chance. Otherwise, this show may be too costly to keep around when the network has so much new development in the pipeline.  It is Call to Action time for this one.

Angel from Hell CBS Thu 2/11 9:30 PM
Rating: Pulled from Sched | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.4 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Cancelled

This show has been officially cancelled and pulled from the schedule. Its final eight episode may air later in the season or in Summer, and then it heads off to the TV Wasteland unless fans make an unprecedented show of support.

Colony USA Thu 2/11 10 PM
Rating: 0.4 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.4 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This show held steady with the prior week and it has already been renewed for a second season.

Vampire Diaries CW Fri 2/12 8 PM
Rating: 0.4 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It’s numbers held steadily low, but another season seems assured at this point. That will almost certainly be its last.

Sleepy Hollow FOX Fri 2/12 8 PM
Rating: 0.8 | % Chng PW: -11.1% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.2 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: High

It’s numbers from its first Friday airing didn’t look too bad, but the drop this last week is almost certainly the nail in the coffin. Unless a Call to Action from the fans can save it for a fourth season.

The Originals CW Fri 2/12 9 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: -25.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.8 | StD Rating: 0.4 | Net Avg: 0.6 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Its third season show status should carry it into a fourth year, but I have a hard time seeing much more than that if it continues to perform at these levels.

Second Chance FOX Fri 2/12 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: -16.7% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.1 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: High

At its current rate of decline, this one will be into negative numbers in just a few weeks. It seems certainly headed to the Network Executioner unless an unlikely Call to Action from its fans can save it.

Grimm NBC Fri 2/12 9 PM
Rating: 0.9 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.2 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

It held steady with the prior week, but I still don’t believe this one is doing well enough, even for a Friday show, to justify a sixth season renewal. A Call to Action from its fans could help it, though.

Beowulf ESQ Sat 2/13 10 PM
Rating: Pending | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 0.1 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Ratings results pending.

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 2/14 8 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.6 | Net Avg: 1.5 | Cancellation Alert: Low

On hiatus, returns March 6th.

The Walking Dead AMC Sun 2/14 9 PM
Rating: 6.8 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 13.7 | StD Rating: 6.7 | Net Avg: n/a | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It was down for its mid-season return, but its lows are still well above all other scripted programming on television.  More on this one above.

Chart Activity: This show returned to the Weekly Nielsen Twitter Ratings Top 10 at the Number 2 slot with its mid-season bow.  And it returned to the Cable Top 25 at Number 1 based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic and based on total viewers.  Post-show discussion series The Talking Dead was at Number 2 on both those charts.

The Last Man on Earth FOX Sun 2/14 9:30 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.2 | StD Rating: 1.3 | Net Avg: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

On hiatus, returns March 6th when it will need a definite Call to Action from fans if it wants to survive into a third season.

Be sure keep an eye out for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week at the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site. You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page and also the latest Sci Fi TV Power Rankings post. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Net Avg:  The season to date average rating for the network for non-sports programming and non-repeats.  This data is available for the broadcast networks only.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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