Cancellation Watch: Wayward Pines Gets Second Season, Bitten to End After Third Season, Supergirl Slips Again, Plus Weekly Recap and Scorecards

By | December 10, 2015

[Updated for the renewal announcement for The Leftovers]

wayward_pines_fox_cancelledFour and a half months after it ended its first season and after I assumed it was limited-run-and-done, FOX finally got around to making an official announcement on their Summer series Wayward Pines.  The network announced yesterday that it will be coming back for a second season and had plenty of good things to say about it as well.  FOX’s entertainment president claimed that the show “was a huge hit for us this past summer” and that “we can’t wait for our fans to continue that ride next year”.  Huge hit is probably a bit of a stretch, seeing as it only averaged a 1.1 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.  But then based on how FOX’s Fall lineup tanked this year, I guess those seem like pretty good numbers considering Wayward Pines aired during low viewership Summer.  Series creator and first season showrunner will not be onboard for the second season, though executive producer M. Night Shyamalan will remain onboard.  The second season will likely land on FOX’s schedule in Summer 2016.

Canadian supernatural series Bitten, which stars Laura Vandervoort, will be coming to an end after its third season according to an announcement yesterday.  Its Canadian home the Space Channel has elected to bring the show to its conclusion and U.S. partner Syfy has chosen not to keep it going for a fourth year.  The third and final season will air on Space during the first half of 2016 and then on Syfy shortly after that.  This series does have a very rabid and vocal fanbase, and I don’t know if they will stage a campaign to lobby another network or one of the streaming services to pick up the show, but stay tuned for more info on that.

HBO has announced that The Leftovers will return for a third season, but that it will be the show’s last.  The renewal comes as a bit of a surprise because the show did not have a large audience during its first season and went through a makeover its second year only to see its numbers drop further.  But apparently the network decided to go ahead and give it a final year so that it can wrap up its storylines and so that maybe it will play better to the binge-watching that will certainly follow.  Series executive producer Damon Lindeloff has said that they will bring the show to a “definitive” end but also said that it would be “wildly ambiguous but hopefully mega-emotional”.

In ratings news, Supergirl slipped to a 1.5 rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic with 7.7 million total viewers on Monday.  That rating is pretty low for what is likely an expensive series to produce and I’m thinking it won’t fly long on CBS at that level.  I resisted putting the show into Bubble Status in the Power Rankings that just came out, but if it doesn’t improve in January (when viewership in general should be going up) that is where it will land.   Over on ABC, Agents of SHIELD failed to see any gains with its Fall finale as it pulled another 1.3 rating based on the overnights with 3.9 million total viewers.  That show continues to struggle in its third season and I am one of the few who do not believe it is guaranteed a fourth year and I go into in more detail on that at this link.  Interestingly, The CW’s The Flash slipped a bit for its Fall finale to a 1.3 rating (though up from the 1.2 reported in the prelims) as apparently that episode was a let down from last week’s cross-over with Arrow (which set up for the upcoming Legends of Tomorrow).  But that is one show that can easily shrug off any ratings dips and their is no reason to be concerned about it at the moment.  Arrow slipped back this week as well, but to its the normal 1.0 ratings level it has been seeing. Most of the other genre shows that aired this week stayed at about their usual levels and I will have the full rundown of those results next Tuesday.  You can see the prior week’s rating round up at this link.

In the broadcast net scorecard, Supergirl slipped from Number 2 to Number 3 as that show continues to work its way down the list.  And there has been some other minor shuffling up and down across the shows since last week.  The scorecard ranks all of the broadcast net sci fi / fantasy shows ratings performance vs. their network’s season to date average for non-sports, non-repeat programming during the week (based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic).  Shows at or above their network’s average should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Broadcast network scorecard based on the ratings through December 7th:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Avg Var Live+7 Avg Rtg Cancel Alert
1 (1) The Flash (O) CW 1.43 0.62 0.81 2.30 Low
2 (3) Arrow (O) CW 1.05 0.62 0.43 1.50 Low
3 (2) Supergirl CBS 1.91 1.59 0.33 3.23 Low
4 (4) Supernatural (O) CW 0.75 0.62 0.13 1.24 Low
5 (5) iZombie (O) CW 0.58 0.62 -0.04 0.90 Moderate
6 (7) Limitless (O) CBS 1.54 1.59 -0.05 2.71 Low
7 (8) Gotham FOX 1.51 1.56 -0.05 2.69 Low
8 (5) Vampire Diaries (O) CW 0.56 0.62 -0.06 1.10 Low
9 (9) Once Upon A Time (O) ABC 1.57 1.65 -0.08 2.69 Low
10 (10) The Originals (O) CW 0.43 0.62 -0.19 0.83 Low
11 (11) Agents of SHIELD (O) ABC 1.43 1.65 -0.21 2.53 Low
12 (12) The Last Man on Earth (O) FOX 1.28 1.56 -0.28 2.02 Elevated
13 (14) Heroes Reborn (O) NBC 1.28 1.77 -0.49 2.31 Medium
14 (13) Scream Queens (O) FOX 1.07 1.56 -0.49 2.08 Elevated
15 (15) Sleepy Hollow (O) FOX 0.91 1.56 -0.65 1.63 High
16 (16) Grimm (O) (F) NBC 0.94 1.77 -0.83 1.75 Moderate
17 (17) Minority Report (O) FOX 0.71 1.56 -0.85 1.32 High

The cable scorecard is more subjective because it is not as easy (or useful) to compile network averages for the cable channels. So this is ranked based on the Cancellation Alert status of this shows from least to most likely to get cancelled.

Cable Scorecard based on ratings through December 7th:

Series Net Std Avg Prior Yr Avg Var Cancel Alert
The Walking Dead AMC 6.68 7.37 -0.69 Renewed
American Horror Story FX 1.74 1.91 -0.17 Renewed
Z Nation (O) (F) Syfy 0.33 0.48 -0.15 Renewed
The Leftovers HBO 0.33 0.77 -0.44 Renewed
Ash vs Evil Dead STARZ 0.16 n/a n/a Renewed
Star Wars Rebels DXD 0.13 0.15 -0.02 Renewed
Guardians of the Galaxy DXD 0.10 n/a n/a Renewed
Into the Badlands AMC 2.24 n/a n/a Low
The Librarians TNT 0.52 0.92 -0.40 Low
Doctor Who BBCA 0.36 n/a n/a Low
Haven Syfy 0.18 0.22 -0.03 Cancelled

Metric Definitions:

Broadcast Network Scorecard:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s season to date ratings average (see metric definitions below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Avg:  The network’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and the network’s season to date average as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the network mean.

Live+7 Avg Rtg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on delayed viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast.  This data is not available for all shows.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Cable Scorecard:

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned/produced by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower.

Std Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Prior Yr Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average from its prior season (if applicable) based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Variance:  The variance between a show’s season to date average and its Prior Year average as defined above.

Cancel Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *