For those familiar with the infamous Cancellation Bear associated with the TV by the Numbers site who makes weekly cancellation/renewal predictions during the regular season, he is now the TV Grim Reaper. Or at least the person who originated the Bear–Bill Gorman–has taken up this new persona to continue with his TV prognostications on his own site. It seems that TV by The Numbers was part of a corporate buyout and the originators of the site (Bill was one of the two) as well as several of the regular writers have since exited. And while the Cancellation Bear is still part of TVBTN, Bill is continuing what he started in this new guise. His predictions are based on the “Reaper Index” which “is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network” (more info on his process at this link). He has been very accurate at predicting the fate of broadcast network shows over the last few years (and note that he looks at the overnights, not the delayed viewing numbers), so it is worth keeping an eye on his predictions (as a secondary source to Cancelled Sci Fi, of course) throughout the season. You can see his full predictions for all the broadcast network shows at www.tvgrimreaper.com. You can also follow him on Twitter where he is very active and loves to interact with his followers.
Here are his predictions on the Fall sci fi / fantasy through the first two weeks of the season.
ABC
Once Upon A Time: more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016
Agents of SHIELD: certain to be renewed by May, 2016
I concur with his prediction on Once Upon A Time, but I’m not quite willing to give Agents of SHIELD the third season show protection for the following reasons: it’s expensive, it’s ratings are below the network average, it could be packaged with Agent Carter for syndication and have an acceptable episode count, ABC is queuing up Marvel’s Most Wanted as a potential Avengers tie-in replacement (and that could be added to the AoS / AC syndication package as well). That said, AoS‘s numbers are at least passable at the moment, but if it slips further I don’t believe it can count on its third season show status.
You can see his predictions for all the currently airing ABC shows at this link.
CBS
Limitless: more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016
I concur with this prediction. You can see his predictions for all the currently airing CBS shows at this link.
FOX
Gotham: certain to be renewed by May, 2016
Scream Queens: more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016
The Last Man on Earth: more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016
Sleepy Hollow: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2016
Minority Report: certain to be cancelled by May, 2016
I concur with his predictions on Minority Report and Sleepy Hollow, but I believe he is a bit optimistic on the other FOX genre entries, especially slumping Scream Queens. But it’s still early in the season, so we’ll see how it plays out. You can see his predictions for all the currently airing FOX shows at this link.
NBC
Heroes Reborn: more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2016
I concur with this prediction. You can see his predictions for all the currently airing NBC shows at this link.
The CW
The Originals: certain to be renewed by May, 2016
The CW shows are just this week having their Fall debuts, but he has that prediction for The Originals because of its third season show status and I concur with it. Next week he will give his first round of predictions on the other CW entries.
