Cancellation Watch: The Messengers is Sinking Fast, But Some Possible Good News for Agent Carter

By | April 28, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Thursday Apr 23rd thru Monday Apr 28th (analysis and metric definitions below):

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 4/23 8 PM
Rating: 0.6 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.4 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Still holding low and still looking like it could be heading into its last season.

Olympus Syfy Thu 4/23 10 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.7 | StD Rating: 0.2 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

No improvement here and still dependent on international financing to get a second season.

Dig USA Thu 4/23 10 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: -33.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.0 | StD Rating: 0.3 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

This one has slipped to a new low which means that the international financing would have to be real good to keep it alive.

Grimm NBC Fri 4/24 9 PM
Rating: 1.0 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.7 | StD Rating: 1.2 | Target: 1.2 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

No improvement for this show.  Maybe NBC could shift it back to 9 PM EST to finish out its season?  It performed (slightly) better there.

The Messengers CW Fri 4/24 9 PM
Rating: 0.2 | % Chng PW: -33.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.8 | StD Rating: 0.3 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Elevated

Those cruel finals erased the brief hopes this show had when the preliminaries came out.  (More on this one below)

Outlander Starz Sat 4/25 9 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.3 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Still holding steady for Starz as it wraps up its first season and preps for its second.

Once Upon A Time ABC Sun 4/26 8 PM
Rating: 1.7 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 5.1 | StD Rating: 2.2 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It held steady and it tied for the highest rated broadcast network show on Sunday.  Still looks like a lock for a fifth season.

The Last Man on Earth FOX Sun 4/26 9 PM
Rating: 1.4 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.2 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It held steady and maybe it can go out on an upnote with its season finale next week.

Game of Thrones HBO Sun 4/26 9 PM
Rating: 3.5 | % Chng PW: -2.8% | Tot Viewers (MM): 6.7 | StD Rating: 3.8 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It dropped one tick from last week but was still at more than double the ratings score for its nearest competition on the broadcast nets.

Salem WGN Sun 4/26 10 PM
Rating: 0.1 | % Chng PW: +150.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.3 | StD Rating: 0.1 | Target: 0.4 | Cancellation Alert: Low

After sinking to only a 0.04 ratings score last week, it improved to a 0.12 on Sun. I still think those numbers are okay for WGN because I believe the show has international financing backing it, but this one is hard to gauge.

The Originals CW Mon 4/27 8 PM
Rating: 0.5 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.6 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) It’s holding steadily low as The CW shows continue to feel the impacts of the ratings slump.

Gotham FOX Mon 4/27 8 PM
Rating: 1.5 | % Chng PW: -6.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.6 | StD Rating: 2.2 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) This show slipped and looks like it could end its first season on a low note.  Can it rebound when it returns for its second year?

the-messengers-cw-cancelledOn the Hot Seat: This last Saturday when the preliminaries numbers for Friday hit, they appeared to bring some hope for The CW’s late-season entry The Messengers.  The initial resulted had that show at a 0.4 rating in the 18-49 demographic based on the overnights with 1.2 million total viewers, which was an improvement from its debut numbers.  That suggested the show might be trending up and even though it was still at a pretty low score, it might have been good enough for a CW entry on Friday night.  But then the cruel finals reared their head and knocked that down to a 0.2 rating with only 770k total viewers.  The CW is particularly susceptible to adjustments in the finals because that network’s numbers are typically on the low side to begin with and a change of one or two ticks has more of an impact.  The adjustment is likely due to preemptions in local markets for the NBC playoffs, and they definitely worked against The Messengers.  The CW seemed to give up on the show before it even started and it hasn’t made much of a case for itself by barely registering in the ratings since its debut.  The network will likely let it air out its first season episodes because it appears to be in burn-off run mode anyway, but don’t expect this one to be coming back for a second season.

Renewal Prospects:  Just a few weeks ago, ABC’s Agent Carter was looking like it would be one season and done because of its less-than-spectacular ratings and the fact that the Agents of SHIELD spin-off talks made it look like AC would get left behind.  But last week Hollywood Reporter claimed that a second season of the show was looking promising and series star Hayley Atwell reinforced that as well.  At her booth at the Chicago Comic & Entertainment Expo (C2E2) this past weekend where she was signing autographs (for $60 a pop!), she had a sign hanging up which stated the following:  “We will know in 3 weeks if Agent Carter is renewed for another season. But it looks good given the fan response.”  Now that’s no guarantee, nor is the THR rumor, but at least it is a good sign and I am seeing other sources agreeing with the assessment as well (but not the Cancellation Bear).  With Agents of SHIELD apparently coming back along with a spin-off, plus talks of another Marvel series (possibly focused on Ms. Marvel), it seems like comic book entries would crowd ABC’s schedule next year especially if Agent Carter comes back.  But then Disney owns ABC and Marvel, so it’s not an impossible move.  I still have AoS and AC as On the Bubble, but I am leaning toward renewal (especially for the former series) and gave them both a thumbs up in the latest set of Power Rankings.  Keep a close eye here and the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site over the next few weeks though, as we should be getting news within that timeframe.

I will post the results for The Returned when they are available later today or early tomorrow.  Be sure keep an eye out for that and all the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week at the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page and also the latest Sci Fi TV Power Rankings post. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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