The DVR Skew: The Last Man on Earth Enters the List at Number 3

By | March 25, 2015

Tracking the ratings for the broadcast network sci fi / fantasy shows factoring in DVR viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast (data is on a three week delay).

last-man-on-earth-fox-cancelledFOX’s post-apocalyptic sitcom The Last Man on Earth has been doing decent in the ratings (relatively speaking) since its debut, and after collecting two weeks worth of Live+7 delayed viewing data it enters into this list as the Number 3 genre show on the broadcast networks.  Now two episodes is not a great sample, so we will need to see how this show tracks in the coming weeks, but its overnights recently saw a bump up after trending down, so its looks like it is on course for a second season renewal.  This list also reflects the first post-hiatus Agents of SHIELD episode which experienced a drop based on the overnights but still saw decent gains in Live+7 viewing.  That show is at the Number 4 slot which makes it look somewhat healthy from this point of view, but I still don’t know if the claims by the broadcast nets that they are watching the delayed viewing results closely this year is anything more than just lip service.  If AoS does end up getting a third season renewal, then that will suggest they are.  But that decision could also be driven by an edict from Disney which wants to keep the show going because it is part of their Avengers franchise, so it is hard to use it as a gauge.  With the low-rated but recently renewed Sleepy Hollow currently at the Number 5 slot, you could argue that the Live+7 numbers helped its cause.  But FOX in general has been struggling so they may have just decided to keep it going over several of their lower rated entries.  The rest of the list follows pretty much the same order has we have been seeing and I expect these rankings to hold pretty steady through season end.

(Metric definitions below the chart)

Rank Prior Rank Series Network Avg Over-night Rtg Live+7 Days Tracked Avg Live+7 Rtg Live+7 % Gain Cancellation Alert
1 1 Gotham FOX 2.3 18 3.9 69.0% Renewed
2 2 Once Upon A Time ABC 2.4 13 3.6 46.0% Low
3 n/a The Last Man on Earth FOX 1.9 2 3.6 65.1% Low
4 3 Agents of SHIELD ABC 1.7 11 3.0 77.0% Medium
5 4 Sleepy Hollow FOX 1.5 18 2.6 66.2% Renewed
6 6 Person of Interest CBS 1.6 12 2.5 55.5% Low
7 5 Agent Carter ABC 1.4 6 2.4 62.5% Medium
8 7 The Flash CW 1.5 10 2.4 66.2% Renewed
9 8 Grimm NBC 1.2 13 2.3 84.5% Renewed
10 9 Galavant ABC 1.3 2 2.2 51.7% High
11 10 Forever ABC 1.1 15 2.0 78.2% Medium
12 11 Resurrection ABC 1.3 9 1.7 66.0% High
13 12 Arrow CW 1.1 4 1.6 66.7% Renewed
14 13 Constantine NBC 0.9 12 1.6 79.2% High
15 14 Vampire Diaries CW 0.8 13 1.4 84.8% Renewed
16 15 Supernatural CW 0.9 7 1.4 70.2% Renewed
17 16 The Originals CW 0.6 10 1.1 80.6% Renewed
18 17 The 100 CW 0.5 12 0.9 74.2% Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Live+7 Rating:  This is the rating in the 18-49 demographic that factors in the viewing from the live broadcast plus DVR viewing up to seven days later.

Avg Overnight Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the final overnights for live broadcast.

Live+7 Days Tracked: The days that the Live+7 data was available for a show in the Live+7 Top 25 charts published by TV by The Numbers.

Avg Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 numbers for the Live+7 Days Tracked (see metric above).

Live+7 % Gain: The average Live+7 rating percent gain from the average overnight rating based on the Live+7 Days Tracked (see metric above).  The more datapoints available in the Live+7 Days Tracked, the more accurate this will be and the closer the math will work.  Shows with fewer datapoints will have larger discrepancies.

Cancellation Alert: My estimation on a show’s chances of being cancelled.  The five levels from least to most likely to be cancelled are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.


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