The DVR Skew: Agent Carter Looks Better With Delayed Viewing Factored In

By | February 17, 2015

Tracking the ratings for the broadcast network sci fi / fantasy shows factoring in DVR viewing up to seven days past the live broadcast (data is on a three week delay).

agent-carter-cancelledThe overall ranking of sci fi / fantasy shows based on their ratings with Live+7 viewing factored in has not changed much from the last post, though now we have more datapoints for ABC’s Agent Carter, so I have included it. There are three episodes tracked in the numbers below (would have been four without that one preemption in January), and that show ranks in the Top 5 among genre entries.  Whether that will be good enough to keep it around for a second season remains to be seen because its overnights (which the advertisers pay more attention to) have sunk pretty low of late.  Galavant is also on the list this time around, though only two of its four airings made it into the list of Top 25 DVR gains, so the data may be the most reliable.  I still consider it unlikely to return next year whereas Forever (which Galavant is one rung above) still as a chance.

In my previous post, I go into more detail on how much I believe the Live+7 ratings help these shows, and below the grid is more info on the metrics and methodology used to calculate the average ratings.

Rank Prior Rank Series Network Avg Over-night Rtg Live+7 Days Tracked Avg Live+7 Rtg Live+7 % Gain Cancellation Alert
1 1 Gotham FOX 2.3 13 4.1 70.5% Renewed
2 2 Once Upon A Time ABC 2.6 11 3.7 45.9% Low
3 3 Agents of SHIELD ABC 1.7 10 3.0 76.6% Moderate
4 4 Sleepy Hollow FOX 1.6 14 2.7 66.1% Moderate
5 n/a Agent Carter ABC 1.5 3 2.5 61.7% Moderate
6 5 Person of Interest CBS 1.6 10 2.5 55.0% Low
7 6 The Flash CW 1.5 8 2.4 66.7% Renewed
8 7 Grimm NBC 1.3 11 2.3 82.6% Renewed
9 n/a Galavant ABC 1.3 2 2.2 51.7% High
10 8 Forever ABC 1.2 12 2.1 77.3% Moderate
11 9 Resurrection ABC 1.3 9 1.7 66.0% High
12 11 Arrow CW 1.0 4 1.6 66.7% Renewed
13 10 Constantine NBC 0.9 10 1.6 80.0% High
14 11 Vampire Diaries CW 0.8 10 1.4 82.1% Renewed
15 13 Supernatural CW 0.9 4 1.4 66.7% Renewed
16 14 The Originals CW 0.6 8 1.1 78.4% Renewed
17 15 The 100 CW 0.5 7 0.9 73.0% Renewed

Metric Definitions:

Live+7 Rating:  This is the rating in the 18-49 demographic that factors in the viewing from the live broadcast plus DVR viewing up to seven days later.

Avg Overnight Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the final overnights for live broadcast.

Live+7 Days Tracked: The days that the Live+7 data was available for a show in the Live+7 Top 25 charts published by TV by The Numbers.

Avg Live+7 Rtg: The season to date average rating based on the Live+7 numbers for the Live+7 Days Tracked (see metric above).

Live+7 % Gain: The average Live+7 rating percent gain from the average overnight rating based on the Live+7 Days Tracked (see metric above).  The more datapoints available in the Live+7 Days Tracked, the more accurate this will be and the closer the math will work.  Shows with fewer datapoints will have larger discrepancies.

Cancellation Alert: My estimation on a show’s chances of being cancelled.  The five levels from least to most likely to be cancelled are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

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