Cancellation Watch: Grimm Gets Renewed; Is Person of Interest in Danger?

By | February 6, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Tuesday Feb 3rd thru Thursday Feb 5th (analysis and metric definitions below):

The Flash CW Tue 2/3 8 PM
Rating: 1.3 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.6 | StD Rating: 1.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Still holding steady and performing well for the fifth place network.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 2/3 9 PM
Rating: On Hiatus | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

On hiatus until March 3rd.

Agent Carter ABC Tue 2/3 8 PM
Rating: 1.3 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.2 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

The guest appearance by the Howling Commandos didn’t help much.  Maybe its DVR numbers and ties to the Avengers franchise will be enough to keep it alive, but it’s looking more doubtful.

Supernatural CW Tue 2/3 9 PM
Rating: 0.8 | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.2 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This show has slipped some during the second half of the season, but it’s still doing well enough for a CW entry.

Forever ABC Tue 2/3 10 PM
Rating: 0.9 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.4 | StD Rating: 1.2 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

This one slipped to a season low this week, and I’m starting to doubt whether those delayed viewing results will do much to win it a second season.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 2/3 10 PM
Rating: 1.4 | Tot Viewers (MM): 9.3 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It dropped from its last new episode, but then you have to expect its numbers to slip after two weeks of preemptions.  CBS certainly isn’t doing much to help it.  (More on this one below)

Arrow CW Wed 2/4 8 PM
Rating: 1.2 | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.9 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Since the Flash cross-over in late Fall, this show is really experiencing a surge in its numbers.  And you know that has the execs  at The CW pumped for more DC shows on the schedule.

The 100 CW Wed 2/4 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.5 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

No improvement for this one and it’s not impossible that The CW could cut its third season episode order short if they don’t have much confidence in it.  The show needs a ratings surge as it wraps up its current season.

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 2/5 8 PM
Rating: 0.9 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.7 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This one keeps hanging in there, but I still wouldn’t be surprised if at some point The CW announces next season as its last.

Grimm2012_PRenewal Announcement: NBC announced yesterday the renewal of their fourth season supernatural series Grimm.  That comes as no surprise, though, as it has been doing well enough on Fridays to earn it a fifth year.  It’s numbers have dropped slightly this year, averaging a 1.3 rating in the 18-49 demographic based on the overnights vs. its 1.4 average during its third season.  But those numbers are still good enough to plug up its low viewership Friday night timeslot, plus an additional season will pad out its syndication package.  The show has already started its syndication run over on TNT, and that’s when the networks and studios really start seeing a return on their investment for scripted TV shows.  One more season will get the show above the one hundred episode count which the syndication market loves because it means they can air the episodes for quite a while before they start repeating themselves.  And if Grimm can hold close to its current season average going into next year, its chances of a sixth season renewal look good.  For now, though, fans of that show should be comfortable in knowing it will continue with new episodes for the foreseeable future.

On the Hot Seat? And with Grimm‘s future secured, it’s worth considering the prospects of another fourth season genre entry: CBS’ Person of Interest.  That show is currently at a series low as far as its ratings go and it seems to be slipping even more during the second half of the current season.  To be fair, it is still doing well based on its total viewers (which counts more at old-skewing CBS) and has been in the Top 25 based on that metric for every new episode this season except for one (though it may drop out again when the current week’s numbers are tallied).  And by the end of the season, Person of Interest will have reached the sweet spot of 88 total episodes which guarantees it a syndication run even if CBS axes it at that point.  Still, another year would pad out that episode order even more and would likely be less costly to the network than starting up a new series.  And despite this year’s drop in ratings, PoI still manages to plug up the difficult 10 PM EST timeslot on the schedule for CBS without costing them too much.  The Cancellation Bear over at TV by the Numbers believes that at least two of the network’s aging dramas will get cancelled this season to make room for the three rookie shows that were renewed, but his four most likely candidates are CSI, The Good Wife, Blue Bloods, and Hawaii Five-0.   Personally, I believe that Person of Interest will be in those conversations as well and it concerns me because CBS has shown a particular disdain toward sci fi entries (and this season PoI has veered more in that direction with less of the procedural stories).  All that said, though, I still believe that its chances for a fifth season remain decent IF it can keep its numbers from dropping any further (of course the frequent preemptions and repeats that CBS has subjected it to haven’t helped).  If it can hold at its current 1.6 ratings average and remain in the Top 25 based on total viewers through May, a fifth year renewal should happen.  If not, it will be in the mix with those shows mentioned above targeted for cancellation.  I’m not raising its Cancellation Alert status at the moment, but keep a close eye on its numbers over the coming months.  If it continues to slip, its future may be in doubt.

Be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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