Cancellation Watch: Agents of SHIELD, Forever, Person of Interest Hit Lows. Is It Time to Panic?

By | November 14, 2014

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy airing Tuesday Nov 11th thru Thursday Nov 13th (analysis and metric definitions below):

The Flash CW Tue 11/4 8 PM
Rating: 1.4 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.5 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

It held even with its last new episode and still continues to perform very well for the fifth place network.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 11/4 9 PM
Rating: 1.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.3 | StD Rating: 1.7 | Target: 2.2 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

The DVR numbers for this show remain strong, but I’m just not sure that will be enough to help win this expensive entry a third season.

Supernatural CW Tue 11/4 9 PM
Rating: 0.9 | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.2 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

I expected to see better numbers for this show’s 200th episode, but that 0.9 score is not bad for The CW.  I still believe that this show will choose when it wants to end.

Forever ABC Tue 11/4 10 PM
Rating: 1.0 | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.2 | StD Rating: 1.3 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

It may have received the full season pickup (and ABC can always back down from that), but unless its numbers go up instead of down, it won’t make it to a second year.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 11/4 10 PM
Rating: 1.3 | Tot Viewers (MM): 9.1 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.8 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Did last week’s preemption throw the fans off?  Did the special episode of Chicago Fire on NBC pull away that many viewers?  These are definitely not good numbers for this show.

Arrow CW Wed 11/5 8 PM
Rating: 0.9 | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.6 | StD Rating: 0.9 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

That 0.9 score is pretty solid for The CW these days, but do they have a plan to combat the ratings attrition in the second half of the season that hurt them so bad last year?  I continue to wonder how much longer the fifth place network can hold on.

The 100 CW Wed 11/5 9 PM
Rating: 0.5 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.8 | StD Rating: 0.5 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

Another week, another 0.5 ratings score.  The fans are energized, but can they help draw enough viewers to this show to keep it alive?  Especially considering the shows that The CW has other shows waiting in the wings?

American Horror Story FX Wed 11/5 10 PM
Rating: 1.8 | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.7 | StD Rating: 2.4 | Target: 1.0 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

That’s actually the lowest ratings score this show has had since mid way through its third season.  But it is still leading Wednesday nights among cable shows and performing above expectations, so this one is in no trouble at the moment.

Vampire Diaries CW Thu 11/6 8 PM
Rating: 0.7 | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.6 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Low

(Numbers based on the preliminaries) It slipped a tick from last week, but it is still holding in there.  Same comment as Arrow above, though, concerning the possible ratings slump that could come in the second half of the season.

Agents-of-SHIELD-logoOn the Hot Seat:  Several shows hit ratings lows this week, and it’s definitely time to wonder if their futures are in doubt.  ABC’s Agents of SHIELD slipped to a 1.5 rating in the 18-49 demographic with 4.3 million total viewers on Tuesday as that one continues to under-perform in its second season.  Most telling for that show is the fact that its season to date ratings average is only at a 1.7 score which is only one tick better than The Flash‘s average on The CW.  That has to be a huge eyesore for the ABC execs seeing what was supposed to be a flagship series just barely outperforming one of the fifth place network’s shows.  And I’m sure that Agents of SHIELD has a much higher budget than The Flash even though that latter series does have its share of slick special effects.  AoS does do well in DVR viewing and it is part of the high profile Avengers franchise, so that could help carry it and that is why I only have it at a Moderate Cancellation Alert status at the moment.  But I really believe that unless this one makes a surge during the second half of the season, then it won’t survive into a third year on ABC (but there is the possibility of a jump to Netflix).  Also on ABC, Forever slipped to its lowest numbers yet as it pulled only a 1.0 rating with 4.2 million total viewers.  That show did get a full season pickup last week, but I theorized then that might be more about plugging up a difficult timeslot than a show of support for the series.  This one also needs to see its numbers rise during the second half of the season if it wants to last beyond its first year.   Over on The CW, The 100 continues to fly low as it pulled another 0.5 rating with only 1.6 million total viewers.  There is definitely plenty of fan engagement with that show as the Sci Fi TV Pulse polls have shown, but that needs to translate into increased viewership lest its network will replace it at mid-season with iZombie or The Messengers.

Not quite on the hot seat yet but looking kind of iffy is Person of Interest on CBS.  That show also hit a series low of only a 1.3 rating in the 18-49 demo with 9.1 million total viewers on Tuesday.  It’s numbers have been sub-par since it returned for its fourth season and this recent dip is not a good direction.  However, CBS does tend to cut its 10 PM EST dramas some slack, and Person of Interest is already headed to a syndication run by the end of this year, so any additional seasons will only be gravy for that.  If it can get back up to at least the 1.5 level, I believe it should be okay.  But if it stays at this level, it may be in trouble.  I’m not raising the Cancellation Alert on it yet, but will be keeping a close eye on the show in the coming weeks.

Be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers to tune in to the episode for same day viewing

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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