Cancellation Watch: Agents of SHIELD Continues to Slip. When Will We Get the Final Word on the Fate of That Show and the Other Broadcast Net Entries?

By | April 3, 2015

Unless otherwise noted, the ratings numbers below are based on the final overnights and may vary slightly from the preliminaries reported on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site.

Ratings results for the sci fi / fantasy shows airing Monday Mar 30th thru Thursday Apr 2nd (analysis and metric definitions below):

Note: The Monday broadcast network shows were covered in the previous Cancellation Watch post.

The Returned A&E Mon 3/30 10 PM
Rating: 0.4 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.1 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.8 | Cancellation Alert: Moderate

Still no improvement for this one.  Its chances of survival at this point are linked to any international financing that might make up for its ratings shortfalls.

The Flash CW Tue 3/31 8 PM
Rating: 1.3 | % Chng PW: +8.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 3.7 | StD Rating: 1.4 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This one is climbing back up, but then it will get stifled next week with another repeat.  After that, though, it will speed straight through to its season finale.

Agents of SHIELD ABC Tue 3/31 9 PM
Rating: 1.4 | % Chng PW: -6.7% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.3 | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 2.0 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

It hit a series low and its prospects look grim at this point.  (More on this one below)

iZombie CW Tue 3/31 9 PM
Rating: 0.7 | % Chng PW: 0.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.8 | StD Rating: 0.7 | Target: 0.7 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It’s holding steady at a number decent enough for survival on The CW.  Can it maintain that level?

Forever ABC Tue 3/31 10 PM
Rating: 1.1 | % Chng PW: +22.2% | Tot Viewers (MM): 4.7 | StD Rating: 1.1 | Target: 1.6 | Cancellation Alert: Medium

Two weeks of new episodes leads to ratings improvements, imagine that.  Another new episode follows next week, so it will be interesting to see if it climbs again.

Person of Interest CBS Tue 3/31 10 PM
Rating: Preempted | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): n/a | StD Rating: 1.6 | Target: 1.7 | Cancellation Alert: Low

Preempted.  Returns with a new episode next week.

Arrow CW Wed 4/1 8 PM
Rating: 0.8 | % Chng PW: -20.0% | Tot Viewers (MM): 2.5 | StD Rating: 1.0 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

It hit its season low and next week we get a repeat again.  And The CW was defying the ratings slump before all these scheduling hijinks

Supernatural CW Wed 4/1 9 PM
Rating: 0.6 | % Chng PW: -14.3% | Tot Viewers (MM): 1.7 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

This one matched its series low (which had previously come when it aired on low-viewership Fridays).  Age and poor scheduling are catching up to it.

Vampire Diaries (R) CW Thu 4/2 8 PM
Rating: 0.3 | % Chng PW: n/a | Tot Viewers (MM): 0.7 | StD Rating: 0.8 | Target: 0.9 | Cancellation Alert: Renewed

Repeat. Resumes new episodes April 16th.

agents-of-shield-s2-cancelledOn the Hot Seat:  A few weeks ago, Agents of SHIELD showed a bit of a surge in the ratings, but then it has dropped now for two weeks in a row, this last Tuesday to a series low of a 1.4 rating in the 18-49 demographic based on the overnights with 4.3 million total viewers.  Now it did manage to make it into the Top 25 a couple of weeks ago and it is likely regularly placing in the Top 40, but it is an expensive show to produce and I don’t know that those numbers will be good enough to earn it a third season.  It has seen notable gains when the Live+3 and Live+7 delayed viewing is factored in, but we’ve yet to see that those numbers really do make a difference to the networks when they are deciding which shows are getting cancelled or renewed.  I still believe that the most likely scenario for its renewal would involve Disney execs sending an edict to ABC telling them to keep it alive (and hopefully Agent Carter will be a rider on that).  And perhaps with the current ratings slump the relative numbers will be enough to keep the show alive.  But I believe it will be a nail-biter up to the end of the season on whether this one gets renewed or not.

Upfronts:  Next month brings us the upfronts when the broadcast networks will present their schedules for the 2015-16 season to the advertisers and we should know the final fate of all the shows that are currently airing on those channels by that point.  Typically, the renewal/cancellation announcements come shortly before the networks make their presentations (though The CW decided to make headlines and announced most of their renewals in January).  But I am guessing that we will have to wait for the final schedules to know for certain on the limited run shows like Galavant and Agent Carter.  If the networks don’t plan on bringing them back (certainly not for the former and the latter is up in the air), they will just leave them off the schedule and claim they were always planned for a limited run only (even though it’s obvious they we built with the possibility of continuation).  That way the networks get to cancel them without ever really cancelling them.  Below are the presentation dates for each of the broadcast nets, and I expect that we should know the fate of all the current sci fi / fantasy shows which have not been renewed yet by then:

Monday, May 11, 2015 NBC (Morning)
Monday, May 11, 2015 FOX (Afternoon)
Tuesday, May 12, 2015 ABC
Wednesday, May 13, 2015 CBS
Thursday, May 14, 2015 The CW

I will be keeping a close eye on the news feeds as the upfronts approach because we will also be getting word on the new shows that will hit the schedule for the coming season.  So be sure to stay tuned to this site and the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for any breaking news.

I will post the results for Dig and Olympus (which debuted on Syfy last night) when they are available later today or early tomorrow.  Be sure keep an eye on the Cancelled Sci Fi Twitter Site for the latest numbers and any breaking news throughout the week.  You can see the status of all the currently airing sci fi / fantasy shows at the Cancellation Watch page. And for more information on where I get these numbers and how I make my Cancellation Alert assessments, check out the Cancelled Sci Fi FAQ.

Metric Definitions:

Rating: Overnight rating in the 18-49 demographic for same day viewing based on the final numbers unless otherwise noted

% Chng PW: The percentage change +/- for this week’s rating vs. last week’s rating.

Tot Viewers: Estimated total viewers (age 2+) to tune in to the episode for same day viewing.

StD Rating: Season to date average for the rating metric tracked above.

Target: The estimated average rating that the show needs to sustain to get renewed.

Cancellation Alert: My prediction of the likelihood that a show will get cancelled. From least to most likely the statuses are Low, Moderate, Medium, Elevated, and High.

Ratings Source: TV by the Numbers and ShowBuzzDaily

Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2014 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

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