Why Do Sci Fi TV Shows Get Cancelled So Often?

It seems like the same story every year. Several sci fi and fantasy TV shows are added to the schedules of the linear networks and the streaming channels, and you start watching and get attached to one or more of these entries. Then, after the show gets through its first season and really starts to get good, it gets cancelled and cast into the Television Wasteland.

But why, you ask? Why did it get cancelled? It was such a good series and could have turned into one of the greatest sci fi TV shows of all time. Why wasn’t it given more of a chance, and why do the networks and streaming services seem to hate sci fi?

The reason it got cancelled is that the viewership was low, or it was perceived to be low by the network/streaming execs. Television shows need to draw an audience to justify their existence, and if they do not meet the thresholds set by the venue that airs or streams them, the series will likely get sent to the Network Executioner. And this is true of all genres, not just sci fi entries. The fact is that, in a typical year, half or more of the new scripted shows that debut get cancelled. It has been this way since the beginning of television, and it is still true today.

How Is the Viewership Determined?

For the linear networks (broadcast and cable), viewership is measured by the Nielsen ratings, which have been around since the early days of television. For the streaming services, each venue knows exactly how many people are tuning in and for how long, and they set the thresholds that determine the success of their scripted originals.

The Nielsens come from a sampling of the audience based on people whose viewership is recorded through manual logs or meters that track what they are watching. This is then reported as the same-day viewing numbers, which track how many in the sample watched the live broadcast as well as the delayed viewing for those who recorded an episode and watched it later. The broadcast networks and basic cable channels rely on advertising from sponsors, so they pay close attention to the same-day numbers (even though they claim in PR statements that they don’t), and that typically drives renewal and cancellation decisions. There are flaws in the sampling process, and the Nielsen ratings struggle with genres like sci fi that don’t fit the Prime Time-friendly model. But the network execs continue to rely upon them because they have been around for so long.

The streaming services know the exact viewership of their shows because people log into their service to watch, and they have the ability to track all their activity. There is no sampling involved, as every viewer is counted (note: the Nielsen Streaming Rankings rely on sampling, but those are not used by the streaming services because they have their own measurements). Subscriptions drive revenue for the streamers, so they want shows that will continually bring in new subscribers. But viewership tends to trend down for shows each season, so they often look to wrap up a series after just a few years due to diminishing returns. Some streamers, such as Netflix, measure the completion rate, which determines how many viewers watched all of the current season within a set amount of time. They believe this determines the likelihood that the viewer will return for another season, but ignore the fact that it defeats the whole purpose of viewing on demand.

Why Do Network and Streaming Execs Hate Sci Fi TV Shows?

While it is true that some television execs have a distaste for the sci fi and fantasy genres, it is not true that they hate them in general. In fact, after the success of Lost in 2004, sci fi and fantasy saw a boom on the broadcast networks and cable channels. And most of the streaming services have been more than willing to greenlight sci fi TV entries, often opening the purse strings and allowing large budgets for shows like Stranger Things (Netflix), The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power (Amazon), The Mandalorian (Disney+), and more.

But the fact is that sci fi and fantasy shows tend to frustrate television executives because the audience follows a different pattern than most other TV entries. Sci fi fans want to watch on their own time, not on the network schedule, and not within a constricted measurement window. This tends to suggest that viewership is lower for these shows initially, but the reality is that there is a large audience out there tuning in for these genre entries.

Take the classic example of the original Star Trek, which never ended the season in the Top 50 over the three years it aired on NBC according to the Nielsens. It seemed like a low-viewership show and was always facing cancellation, but when it later hit syndication, it drew massive viewership. The audience for properties like this may appear low at first, but these viewers are loyal to the show, will stick with it, watch it repeatedly, and respond very well to merchandising. Another clear example is Firefly, which was cancelled by Fox after one season due to low viewership, but its popularity grew and grew after that, and it has since spawned plenty of merchandising opportunities through books, comics, toys, and more.

A more recent example can be found with Manifest (NBC) and Lucifer (Fox). Both ran for three seasons on their respective networks and were then cancelled due to declining ratings. Fans responded with massive “Save My Show” campaigns, and both were picked up by Netflix where they proved to be huge hits. The streaming viewership for them was massive, revealing a clear disconnect between what the Nielsens had been measuring and the actual size of the audience.

Then let us look at a streaming original that was cancelled by the very service that saved the two shows above. Warrior Nun premiered on Netflix in 2020 and drew decent enough viewership to get a second season renewal. But when the show returned, execs at the service decided it did not have a good enough completion rate, and they chose not to continue it to a third season. That unleashed a massive campaign worldwide that continues to this day to try to get the show revived. The audience is clearly there, they just didn’t tune in within the narrow parameters Netflix uses to measure success.

Each of these shows has demonstrated that it has a huge following, but because they fall outside the guidelines that their venues generally rely upon to determine success, they appear to be unprofitable. Meanwhile, other, more audience-friendly entries—like sitcoms, procedurals, and reality shows—do check all the boxes those execs are looking for, and they tend to get renewed more often.

Why Do Sci Fi TV Shows Get Cancelled More Often Than Other Genres?

Do sci fi and fantasy shows get cancelled more often than other genres? I outlined above reasons that suggest this, but the fact is that sci fi shows do not have a significantly higher cancellation rate. There are fewer of them on television than all other genres, so it seems like they get cancelled more often, but the numbers do not support that.

In any given year, close to half of the new shows that premiere will get cancelled, possibly even more. The linear channels and streaming services throw out a lot of shows each year (reaching almost absurd numbers at the height of Peak TV), and quite a number of those turn out to be misses with the audience. Sci fi shows might have a slightly higher cancellation rate, but not significantly more than other genres.

As an example, let us take a look at the 2019–20 season. That was at the height of Peak TV (but before the impacts of COVID) and also at a point when the streaming services started to cancel their originals more often than when they first entered the scripted programming game. The grid below tracks the new shows that debuted on the broadcast networks, basic and premium cable channels, and the streaming services that season (excluding mini-series). I tallied up how many were cancelled after one season, then the additional number and cumulative percentage cancelled by their second season, then the same by their third year. Finally, I calculated how many survived four seasons or more (generally considered a successful run, though three seasons could count as a success for some venues).

You will see that of the 154 new shows that debuted during that season across all venues, 44% were cancelled after one season. Sci fi entries had a cancellation rate of 44%, basically the same as all other genres. Looking at cancellation rates after two and three seasons, they are very similar, slightly lower in the former case and a little higher in the latter. 14% of sci fi shows made it to four seasons or more, which is a little lower than other genres, but not by much. Interestingly, sci fi shows had a cancellation rate of only 43% on the broadcast networks that season vs. 58% for all other genres, even though those venues are typically less amenable to the genre. Sci fi shows had a noticeably higher cancellation rate that season on the streaming services, but that was around the time that the Netflix Red Queen started issuing her “Off With Their Heads!” verdict left and right.

This varies year by year and by venue, and looking at only one season is not the best sample. But it shows that sci fi entries do not always get cancelled more than other genres. I take a much deeper dive into the numbers and the reasons for cancellations in the second edition of my book Why Were They Cancelled?, now available in print and Kindle format. So if you are interested in a journey into the netherworld of the Nielsen ratings, the television networks that rely upon them, the streaming services that pushed Peak TV to its limits, and the fans who did everything they could to save their shows from cancellation, I invite you to check it out.

Keep up with the status of all the current sci fi and fantasy shows as well as news and updates on new and upcoming shows at CancelledSciFi.com.

Cancellation Watch: Status updates and breaking news on renewals and cancellations

Sci Fi TV Highlights: Listings for the upcoming week along with the latest sci fi TV news and trailers.

Sci Fi TV Production Report: News on which sci fi TV shows are moving into production.

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