Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Watchmen Enters in the Lower Half of the Rankings

HBO’s new series Watchmen–based on the comic of the same name–had its debut this past week and posted modest ratings numbers. That has it starting out at the Number 13 slot in the latest set of rankings. Of course, the premium cable channels do not pay as much attention to the same-day ratings, and Watchmen did make some of the slack with digital viewing on HBO Now and HBO Go. So despite the ratings, the series may still be performing well enough for its network. Also premiering last week was The CW’s Arrow which starts out tied for Number 8 in the rankings. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week and the status of all the currently airing shows in our latest Weekly Roundup post.

The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through October 20th:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.31 0.40 226.7% Renewed
2 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.69 0.30 129.3% Renewed
3 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.55 0.30 85.8% Renewal Likely
4 (5) Batwoman (O) CW 0.37 0.30 23.9% Renewal Possible
5 (4) Primal ADSW 0.30 0.25 20.8% Renewal Possible
6 (6) Supernatural (O) CW 0.35 0.30 18.2% Final Season
7 (7) Riverdale (O) CW 0.30 0.30 1.4% Renewal Likely
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.30 0.30 1.4% Renewal Possible
8 (n/a) Arrow (O) CW 0.30 0.30 1.4% Final Season
8 (11) Legacies (O) CW 0.30 0.30 1.4% Renewal Possible
11 (9) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.25 0.30 -15.5% Renewal Possible
11 (10) Nancy Drew (O) CW 0.25 0.30 -15.5% Renewal Possible
13 (n/a) Watchmen (O) HBO 0.25 0.30 -16.7% Renewal Possible
14 (12) Emergence (O) ABC 0.63 0.76 -17.4% Renewal Possible
15 (13) Evil (O) CBS 0.63 0.76 -18.1% Renewed
16 (15) Charmed (O) (F) CW 0.20 0.30 -32.4% Renewal Possible
17 (14) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.63 0.97 -35.8% Final Season
18 (16) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.09 0.15 -43.3% Renewal Possible
19 (17) Mr Robot (O) USA 0.11 0.25 -54.7% Final Season
20 (18) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.03 0.10 -66.7% Final Season

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

Author: johnnyjay

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