Cancellation Watch Scorecard: No Happy Landings in the Rankings for Happy!

By | April 3, 2019

Syfy’s hard-boiled fantasy Happy! returned for its second season last week with numbers down notably from its first year which results in the show starting off pretty low in the Scorecard. It opens at the Number 28 slot which is just above Nightflyers–already cancelled by Syfy–and I consider it a Call to Action show. FX’s comedy mockumentary What We Do in the Shadows starts off just one slot above that at Number 27 as that one pulled modest ratings for its debut. AMC’s Into the Badlands took a notable drop in the rankings as it slipped ten slots from Number 22 to Number 32. That was expected, though, after it moved to its regular Monday timeslot with no lead-in from The Walking Dead. Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental and you can find the full ratings coverage from this past week in our latest Weekly Roundup post.




The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through March 31st:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 1.88 0.50 276.1% Renewed
2 (3) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.96 0.30 219.7% Renewed
3 (2) The Flash (O) CW 0.64 0.33 96.9% Renewed
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.41 0.30 36.0% Renewed
5 (5) Supernatural (O) CW 0.42 0.33 28.1% Renewed
6 (6) Arrow (O) CW 0.38 0.33 17.0% Renewed
7 (7) Riverdale (O) CW 0.38 0.33 17.0% Renewed
8 (8) Supergirl (O) CW 0.37 0.33 13.4% Renewed
9 (10) Manifest (O) NBC 1.25 1.13 10.7% Renewal Possible
10 (9) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.19 0.17 10.6% Renewed
11 (11) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.31 0.33 -4.4% Renewed
12 (12) God Friended Me (O) CBS 0.90 0.96 -6.5% Renewed
13 (13) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.30 0.33 -8.2% Renewed
14 (14) Legacies (O) CW 0.30 0.33 -8.2% Renewed
15 (15) The Passage (O) FOX 0.92 1.00 -8.7% On the Bubble
16 (17) Deadly Class (O) Syfy 0.15 0.17 -12.9% Renewal Possible
17 (18) Siren (O) Freeform 0.17 0.20 -13.1% Renewal Possible
18 (19) Project Blue Book (O) History 0.31 0.36 -13.6% Renewed
19 (16) Roswell New Mexico (O) CW 0.28 0.33 -14.3% Renewal Possible
20 (20) Outlander (O) Starz 0.17 0.20 -15.0% Renewed
21 (21) Charmed (O) CW 0.28 0.33 -15.4% Renewed
22 (23) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -22.0% Renewed
23 (24) Z Nation (F) Syfy 0.13 0.17 -23.5% Cancelled
24 (25) The Orville (O) FOX 0.76 1.00 -24.0% Renewal Possible
25 (26) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.72 0.96 -25.5% Renewal Possible
26 (27) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.83 1.13 -27.0% Renewed
27 (n/a) What We Do in the Shadows (O) FX 0.21 0.30 -30.0% Renewal Possible
28 (n/a) Happy (O) Syfy 0.11 0.17 -35.3% On the Bubble
29 (29) Gotham (O) FOX 0.64 1.00 -36.3% Final Season
30 (28) Nightflyers Syfy 0.11 0.17 -36.9% Cancelled
31 (31) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.61 1.00 -39.6% Cancellation Likely
32 (22) Into the Badlands (O) AMC 0.30 0.50 -41.0% Cancelled
33 (30) American Gods (O) Starz 0.12 0.20 -41.3% Renewed
34 (32) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.09 0.17 -45.7% Renewed
35 (33) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.04 0.08 -46.9% Cancelled
36 (34) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.07 0.17 -57.8% Cancelled
37 (35) Midnight Texas (O) (F) NBC 0.41 1.13 -63.6% Cancelled
38 (36) Mars NGC 0.06 0.16 -65.6% Renewal Possible
39 (37) Counterpart Starz 0.05 0.20 -75.5% Cancelled

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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