Cancellation Watch Scorecard: Siren Slips in the Rankings, But It Is Still Above Water

By | February 6, 2019

Freeform’s Siren slipped three slots in the rankings in its second week, dropping from Number 8 to Number 11. But shows tend to have more volatility in their first few weeks on the Scorecard because minor changes can have a bigger impact when the sample size of episodes is small. The same thing occurred for The CW’s Roswell New Mexico which also dropped three slots (from Number 9 to Number 12). Once those two shows get a few more episodes under their belts, the shifts on the Scorecard will not be as large (unless their ratings take a dive). Most of the rest of the movement for the week was just incidental. For the ratings coverage from this past week, be sure to check out our latest Weekly Roundup post.




The scorecard ranks all of the sci fi and fantasy shows’ ratings performance vs. their network’s ratings benchmark (see metric definitions below).  Shows at or above their benchmark should be okay, whereas those slipping notably below are getting into iffy territory.

Scorecard rankings based on the ratings through February 3rd:

Rank (PW) Series Net Std Avg Net Bench % Var Status
1 (1) The Walking Dead (O) AMC 2.03 0.50 305.0% Renewed
2 (3) The Flash (O) CW 0.67 0.35 92.0% Renewed
3 (2) American Horror Story (O) FX 0.96 0.50 91.8% Renewed
4 (4) The Purge (O) USA 0.41 0.30 36.0% Renewed
5 (5) Riverdale (O) CW 0.43 0.35 21.9% Renewed
6 (6) Arrow (O) CW 0.42 0.35 19.4% Renewed
7 (7) Supernatural (O) CW 0.42 0.35 18.9% Renewed
8 (10) Supergirl (O) CW 0.40 0.35 14.2% Renewed
9 (12) The Magicians (O) Syfy 0.19 0.17 11.8% Renewed
10 (11) Manifest (O) NBC 1.31 1.18 11.1% Renewal Possible
11 (8) Siren (O) Freeform 0.22 0.20 10.0% Renewal Possible
12 (9) Roswell New Mexico (O) CW 0.37 0.35 4.6% Renewal Possible
13 (13) The Passage (O) FOX 1.07 1.06 0.4% Renewal Possible
14 (14) Deadly Class (O) Syfy 0.17 0.17 -2.0% Renewal Possible
15 (16) God Friended Me (O) CBS 0.95 0.99 -3.2% Renewed
16 (15) Project Blue Book (O) History 0.36 0.38 -6.6% Renewal Possible
17 (17) Black Lightning (O) CW 0.33 0.35 -6.6% Renewed
18 (18) Legacies (O) CW 0.32 0.35 -8.0% Renewed
19 (19) Legends of Tomorrow (O) CW 0.31 0.35 -10.8% Renewed
20 (20) Charmed (O) CW 0.31 0.35 -11.8% Renewed
21 (21) Outlander (O) Starz 0.17 0.20 -15.0% Renewed
22 (22) Star Wars Resistance (O) Disney 0.08 0.10 -20.0% Renewed
23 (23) The Orville (O) FOX 0.82 1.06 -23.2% Renewal Possible
24 (24) Z Nation (F) Syfy 0.13 0.17 -23.5% Cancelled
25 (25) MacGyver (O) (F) CBS 0.72 0.99 -26.8% Renewal Possible
26 (26) The Good Place (O) NBC 0.83 1.18 -29.9% Renewed
27 (27) Gotham (O) FOX 0.68 1.06 -36.0% Final Season
28 (28) Nightflyers Syfy 0.11 0.17 -36.9% On the Bubble
29 (29) The Gifted (O) FOX 0.64 1.06 -39.9% On the Bubble
30 (30) Van Helsing (F) Syfy 0.09 0.17 -45.7% Renewed
31 (31) Stan Against Evil IFC 0.04 0.08 -46.9% Cancelled
32 (32) Channel Zero (O) Syfy 0.07 0.17 -57.8% Cancelled
33 (33) Midnight Texas (O) (F) NBC 0.41 1.18 -65.1% Cancelled
34 (34) Mars NGC 0.06 0.16 -65.6% Renewal Possible
35 (35) Counterpart Starz 0.05 0.20 -77.5% On the Bubble

Metric Definitions:

Rank (PW): Current rank based on the variance of a show’s season to date ratings average vs. its network’s benchmark (see definition below).  The number in parenthesis is the prior week’s rank.  Note that shows on the streaming services are not included because of insufficient viewership data and foreign imports like Doctor Who will not be included because they rely more heavily on their viewership in their home countries.

Series: (O) indicates the show is owned or co-owned by the network and/or a sister studio. (F) indicates the show airs on Friday when ratings expectations are lower on the broadcast networks.

StD Avg:  The show’s season to date ratings average based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic.

Net Bench:  (Network Benchmark) For the broadcast networks, this is the net’s season to date average rating based on the overnights for the 18-49 demographic for non-sports, non-special, non-repeat broadcasts.  For the cable channels, this is the lowest level at which a show is typically renewed by that network if there are enough genre entries on that channel to provide a decent sample.  But note that with cable entries intangibles such as international and/or streaming partnerships can play an important factor in a show’s survival and that is not measured here.

% Var:  The percent variance between a show’s season to date average and the network benchmark as defined above.  The higher the variance, the better a show is performing vs. the benchmark.

Status: My assessment of the likelihood that a show will get renewed or cancelled. The statuses are Renewal Likely, Renewal Possible, On the Bubble, Cancellation Likely (plus Renewed and Cancelled/Ended)

Ratings Source: ShowBuzzDaily and TV by the Numbers

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